Member Info for OliGarch

Ahh, the good old USO rears it's head again.....lol

I seem to remember around five years ago that the sage and knowledgeable on this forum were posting that the USO would be reviewed and changed and that it would be a relatively simple and quick process, yet over five years has elapsed and it's still intact.......lol

Redceo, as we are well aware, dropping the USO would require an Act of Parliament which would mean a debate and vote from our elected MPs.

Having watched the performance of "Free Gear Kier" and his merry men and women (who hold a decent majority) over the last three months, I now feel fairly confident that the USO will be altered. The question is will this be done whilst we are shareholders or will it be reserved solely for Special K?

Chasbrown, nice response........why didn't you just say that you were after a managerial position?.....lol

Newdealz, "get shot of this dinosaur union and the price would fly, that is the root cause of the SP problem!"

I have to disagree with you there. This stock has had wild fluctuations on seeming no real news over the last decade with no input from the union. In my opinion, and in hindsight, much of the "manipulation" post pandemic is because the BoD have been getting ready to sell the business off for one final payday. The "dinosaur, militant, stuck in the '70s" union kicking off was the obvious and predictable response that the BoD needed.

If Kretinsky gets his hands on the business, none of the union bashers will need to worry again?

If Kretinsky fails then that will be a different matter however I can't see the union getting involved in another damaging and costly dispute so soon after the last. I also think that public support for lots of institutions has now changed post pandemic and I think that a straw poll of the public would show that many are now indifferent as to who owns the business as long as their orders arrive on time?

All in my opinion of course.....

My take on the situation is that the Labour government will allow the sale to go through however I also think that Kretinsky isn't going to get enough shareholders to vote for it so I can see this ending in some kind of limbo unless the offer is increased?

Of course, if the terms of the USO are modified favourably then Kretinsky might not get a second bite of the cherry before the SP increases?

Mike, reformation of the USO is not within our gift so whether we might think that it is irrelevant and anachronistic is in itself irrelevant.

I don't know if you are able to cast your mind back to the London Olympics in 2012, but that was about the time when Moya Greene was informed by the Government that in order to secure a cheaper funding model it would need to be privatised (as the only way that RM could then borrow money was through Government loans) however there were a few "potholes" to be fixed first. One pothole was the £2bn pension deficit which Cameron signed up for the Government to fix and ring fence, the other major pothole was the huge monopoly that RM held on the UK market, so RM were told to "lose" 25% of it's core business in order to sate the monopolies people. This meant not renewing certain contracts and encouraging low pricing for DSA contracts. Whilst we might think that the fines, frivolous litigation and general uncompetitiveness are unfair, it is all part of the package....so to speak.

I'm fairly confident that if RM had been allowed to compete on a level playing field post privatisation then it would have blown any competition into the weeds.....but that's not what the Government or monopolies commission wanted.

Mike, it was a serious question. As Wirralboy has pointed out, we all knew about the Postal Services Act prior to investing so any potential "interference" from the Government or the regulator were already baked into the deal? The USO is currently a known entity as is the obligation to DSA.

Thankfully, at the end of the 20th century, a previous BoD had the insight to purchase an unregulated international courier as a hedge to counter against any losses from the impact of the regulated business.

Unfair penalisation? How so? In my opinion the UK operation has failed to meet it's obligatory targets and was therefore penalised for it's failure to manage the situation. It means that the regulator is doing their job, unlike OFWAT.

I think what you are trying to say is that RM should be more like Evri???

Mike, how have the Government and regulator interfered?

Derek, I hear you and I'm hoping that you are correct but we live in uncertain times.

Scamp posted yesterday....."Oh, and contrary to what many people believe...more mail delivered by rail. Its Royal Mail's trains and rolling stock that are being retired (its old and unreliable) not the concept".

Every online article that I have seen about this over the last four days suggests that the mail will be coming off the trains and onto the roads because the rolling stock is thirty years old and I find it difficult to believe that only two years ago the previous CEO wanted more mail carried by train and now they are standing this down. Hopefully Scamp is correct.

Darbo, you are correct that my original contract is a GPO one and although I would prefer RM to be higher up the pecking order, I just cannot see the incoming government intervening. As I posted earlier, we will soon find out whether the new Labour government regard RM as "critical infrastructure".

So, according to the Torygraph, "Royal Mail suitor to spend £800m and take on Amazon. Daniel Kretinsky, the ‘Czech sphinx’ behind a £3.6bn takeover, plans to undercut rivals.

Of course undercutting Amazon would be a mammoth task but I can only see that it's going to be the staff who will be getting the brunt of this.

Darbo, if the proposed purchase goes ahead then DK will be sitting on an absolute "gold mine". If it is blocked or not voted in then we will be sitting on RM shares however I doubt that it will be a "gold mine" all the time the current BoD are running the show?

Anyway, we will soon find out whether the new Labour government regard RM as "critical infrastructure" and block the deal but with several water companies pleading poverty, HS2?, the railways in general, wind turbines, North Sea oil permits and of course the dear old NHS to worry about, I would imagine that RM are well down the pecking order.

8 Jun 2024 19:41

Time2Kill, "Do they have a choice given that DK as to make a bid later this month, the UK can't stop operating for a month whilst the election takes place?"

There's not much of June left. Do you still believe that DK will push his bid further?

Brendyboy, I presume by "mail" that you mean letters? So are you saying that nobody should or would be able to send a letter any more because none of the competition would be interested which would mean that there wouldn't be any letter deliveries if you had your way?.....

I realise that this is a Guardian article, however it's out there......

https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/jun/20/royal-mail-class-action-bulk-mail

Simx, apologies...I meant to type Badenock.

Does anyone know how last week's meeting between Braverman and Kretinsky went?

It's also quite amusing that the tabloids who were hailing the flotation of RM back in 2013 are now saying that RM should never fall into the hands of a foreigner? Why, it all worked out nicely for Thames Water?.....lol

LDB, "So 1 million losses so are you saying there needs to be a tax investigation into undeclered profits? Wherehave all these millions gone and how?"

I'm not sure that I understand the question or your point fully?

My point was that at several junctures, over the last twenty years and usually during pay negotiations, the business has trotted out this mantra of "losing a million a day", which has usually proven to be incorrect, so when it gets trotted out again then the employees just ignore the statement.

Simx, I agree with you that this week's meeting between Kretinsky and Badenock is a dead rubber. It's a bit like Sunak saying that the first flight to Rwanda is taking place on the 25th of July, so presumably he has booked a holiday in Kigali?.....lol