Member Info for OliGarch

Redceo, reducing the letters delivery to five days would also be my choice. Although the data that's out there varies between £125m to £175m in cost savings it should still be enough for RM?

I can also see a scenario in the near future, possibly before 2030 where volumes will drop low enough to facilitate alternative day letter deliveries so perhaps that is something for OFCOM to also consider when getting the legislation rewritten? In my opinion, this is not going happen overnight as OFCOM will need to draft it's findings and proposals to Parliament, then it has to be presented and debated in Parliament, then depending upon the level of debate and objections it will need a second reading before being passed as an amendment.....all in a year where voting boundaries are changing and many MPs will be on the streets getting ready for the charm offensive on their new prey....I mean voters, so I think that it will be a tight squeeze to get the first reading heard before the end of the year.....not impossible though as emergency legislation (wars, terrorism etc) can be heard in 28 days.

Increasing stamp prices above inflation in my opinion isn't going to be received very well and judging by some of the comments online, last year's increase wasn't especially for the level of service that was provided.

The last thing that RM or IDS need is for the UK Government to get involved financially. In my opinion, this would be totally wrong especially as the parcels side is making a healthy profit and I'm sure that there would be opposition from some in the House of Commons.

I realise that there were calls for RM to be renationalised but the genie has been out of the bottle for too long now. As a shareholder, I realise that I invested in the current business model, I didn't invest hoping that the business model would be changed or for government intervention.

Redceo, given the potential options out there, which would you vote for?

Removing Saturday letter delivery, alternative day letter deliveries, increasing stamp prices, the UK taxpayer subsidising the USO or do you have an alternative?

Redceo, JB, yes... interesting times. There is plenty of coverage regard OFCOM looking at the USO and most of the speculation evolves around changing from six days to five days. Some have mentioned alternative day letter deliveries, increasing stamp prices and the UK tax payers subsidising the USO but until OFCOM issues it's recommendations then it's pure speculation.

Losing the Saturday letter delivery seems like the favourite and this would apparently realise a cost saving of between £125m and £175m depending upon the source. I'm not entirely sure how much profit RM are losing by providing the USO but hopefully it's in the right ballpark?

As a shareholder and UK taxpayer, everything about the UK Government getting involved to propping up the USO seems wrong and sends out the wrong message to investors, plus what would the UK Government want in return for a bailout, would it be seen as putting RM into special measures and how would this affect the SP?

Incidentally, with the voting boundary changes coming into effect and an election on the way, it is likely that the politicians voting on any changes won't be the same people that currently keep the green leather polished?

Redceo, I don't believe that it is manipulation however I do think that the big investors are wary especially given that the trading update wasn't that fantastic and employee/employer relations are still not brilliant?

Hounddog, nice analysis and hence my post yesterday evening regarding RM losing £1m a day.

Ispy, how long before Seidenberg comes out with the tried and tested "we are losing £1m a day" © Adam Crozier?....lol

Ispy, you couldn't make it up. Seidenberg gives out data to say that things are on the up......oh but can the taxpayers chip in some cash to a privately owned company...... bizarre....

One of the comments on This Is Money was

"Alan12021952, Barnstable, United Kingdom, 3 hours ago

They don't want to be a postal service they just want to be a highly profitable parcel delivery company. Sorry shareholders bought a postal service and the obligations that go with it".....

So, Seidenberg delivers the best trading update for a while and the SP rockets by 2.11% and a massive 2112 trades today? Interesting......

Letter volume decline has returned to the long-established pattern of a 6-8% annually however letter revenues increased by 11.8% as a result of price increases and now it seems that Seidenberg is warning that the UK operation may need a taxpayer bailout to keep the service afloat?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/01/16/royal-mail-warns-taxpayer-bailout-may-needed-keep-services/

Plus the news that parcel volumes were up by 21% and parcel revenue up by 21% in Q3. So armed with this data, a privately owned company wants to go cap in hand to the UK Government for a taxpayer funded bailout? Interesting.....

Darbo, as you are well aware, Sir Vince did his bit for the shareholder just ove a decade ago......lol

JB, Brendyboy, some interesting ideas regarding the USO going forward however in my opinion nothing is going to change in 2024 as it's an election year plus who knows how it's all going to pan out now that the voting areas are going to be adjusted and rest assured that reforming the USO won't be a priority for the next UK Government given the amount of other issues that are going to take priority both in the UK and abroad? The best thing that RM can do is to ignore the USO and QofS and keep paying the fines.

Mike, "common sense"..... "a reduction in the USO".....do you have a timeframe for either of these?.....lol

Pauly, "Seidenberg probably can't believe the state of what he's walked in to."

"It is an impossible business model in 2024 and no one can turn back time to make the company successful again."

Unfortunately, it's going to be long uphill struggle to get this giant on it's feet again plus with Post Office Counters offering services from DPD and Evri as well then future competition is going to be tight. Seidenberg clearly has his work cut out here and I don't think that anyone is expecting the Q3 results to be fantastic.

From a mail centre perspective, neither November or December were anywhere near as busy this year but that could be because a large percentage of outward parcels and packets were diverted to feed the super hubs? The figures wil be interesting?

Brendyboy, interesting?.....in what way?

Derek, "Dishonest", yes. "Clueless", absolutely not.

Redceo, I agree with your last post.

Https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/jan/07/dead-letter-office-royal-mail-wrestles-with-a-difficult-future

Not a great write up but to be expected in my opinion.

Ispy, Broch, regarding the business taking on 500 staff a week since October, it would be interesting to know what contracted hours they are on and what thee retention rate is? Also, I'm assuming that the "two year rule" is still in force for rehiring?

So, part of Thompson's plan was to cut out the deadwood staff with voluntary redundancy or natural wastage and get the rest working harder but under Seidenberg they have been hiring up to 500 extra staff a week since October and then offered a Christmas clearance bonus of up to £500 plus presumably the usual £100 bonus? Have I got this correct?

Alamo, why would that put Amazon in it's place? They have a completely different business model to Royal Mail.

Derek, I was thinking the same when I read the previous post. Callers offices open from 10am to 2pm are pretty inconvenient for most who work 9am to 5pm, also echoing previous sentiment about "who waits in for a letter" it could also be said "who waits in for the postie to collect your return"? Of course returns can be received by Post Office Counters but perhaps (and rather candidly) the newly touted collection lockers could potentially be utilised for returns? Just a thought.