Member Info for OliGarch

Evening JB, regarding the union, yesterday's message stated....

"The truth is Royal Mail needs a new ownership and governance model that builds a postal service for the workers and customers and not one built solely focused o shareholder payouts and driving down the service and the terms and conditions of the workers."

I guess that this could be read in more than one context however I took it to mean that they were saying "anything is better than the structure that we currently have?"

I notice that they have issued another statement today which clarifies their objection to a takeover bid but in all reality I'm not sure that any of the major political parties will see this as a priority, election year or not.

So, the largest shareholders have turned down the initial offer from VESA. Presumably these are institutions holding in excess of 51% and they have made a decision so when they arrive at a figure that is acceptable this will be put to the 49%?

If that's the case then these institutions will have already made up their mind that they are happy with that figure and the deal will be rubber stamped or does it still have to go through the formality of balloting every shareholder?

Dessy, if a 100% takeover bid was made and accepted by the 51% of shareholders would VESA still float this on the stock market? Would GLS be separated and held as a private company and RMG listed on it's own. Would VESA sell off the RMG property portfolio and lease everything back?

Interesting times ahead and nothing we, as minor shareholders, can do to influence it.

Also interesting that the new RMG CEO was announced recently and this bid has come in before she can take up the post?

Am I reading the latest RNS correctly in that Citigroup have taken out a sizable short position of over 1.5m shares?

MaryBr, it's always a nice surprise when you discover that it's been trimmed........lol

Riflemans, the UK Government sold all of their shares in RMG/IDS so no longer have a say in who owns the business. Kwarteng also gave permission for VESA to increase their holding percentage. The top five shareholders hold over 51% of IDS so it is they who will set the sell price so I would imagine that meetings are taking place between these investment companies to ensure that they all get the best deal possible.

Perhaps VESA are planning to hold 51% by buying out the four other large shareholders?

RT003, "I see no reason to change my opening price of 305p at 8am"

As Harry Potter would say, 305p will give me a Quidditch profit on my investment.......nice..... although I despise having to give some of it to Jeremy Hunt as I gave him a small fortune last year......lol

The good news is that the union seems to be totally onboard with a takeover bid.

The breaking news of an impending takeover bid for Royal Mail Group (IDS) by Daniel Kretinsky is another significant moment.

The truth is handing over the ownership of one of the UK's most prestigious institutions to a foreign equity investor cannot be right. But neither is the current model or direction of the company.

The truth is Royal Mail needs a new ownership and governance model that builds a postal service for the workers and customers and not one built solely focused o shareholder payouts and driving down the service and the terms and conditions of the workers.

The CWU will be campaigning publicly and politically to deliver this change of direction.

Dave Ward General Secretary

Henky, I'm playing devil's advocate here but if you are a long term investor then surely the buy in price doesn't really matter as you cannot be down unless you sell at a loss? I would agree however that there are probably better dogs to back at the moment......

There is however good news ahead for the UK operation. I have it on very good authority that the new CEO is keen to reintroduce world class mail which will no doubt save a whole heap of cash and increase productivity?

Redceo, to be perfectly honest, I'm not entirely sure why Seidenberg appointed a CEO for RM? Pfaff is taking care of business in Europe and North America, seemingly without issue so it shouldn't be beyond Seidenberg to take care of the UK operation? He obviously knows what he wants so putting another body in the way can only complicate matters further plus it will be an extra Pfaff when he has to sack her in a couple of years time?

Https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13294737/China-flooding-Britain-fake-stamps-rogue-firms-land-thousands-innocent-British-victims-5-penalties.html

"I believe the new Guvnor is capable of getting us back on course. I'm content to give him time"......I believe that the new RM CRO is called Emma Gilthorpe although to be honest I'm not sure what her pronouns are?

Let's play Devil's Advocate......

Let's face it, Britain is currently corrupt both morally and financially. The current UK Government is too inept to actually make a decision....on anything...... Gen Z don't want to work for RM and the over 50s are too knackered. Now is the time for the incoming CEO to take the bull by the horns and implement her master plan to finish off letters for once and for all whilst the national mood is so apathetic. By the time anyone of any importance notices it will be too late to do anything about it.

There must be plenty of RM shareholders out there who just want to see the SP get to 300p or so and they will cash out as they can't see this as a long term investment any more.

All in my opinion of course.

"Let's be honest Simon was a pushover!..... that's disappointing to hear especially as so many on this forum were going on about what a strong leader he was for taking on the union and how he would deliver his vision of the future.....

GLS has indeed assisted IDS.....Agreed, it's one of the reasons why RM originally purchased it :-)

CWU has done the opposite........Yes from a shareholder perspective however it's too late now as the old guard are retiring/going part time/no longer care and with such a poor new recruit retention rate, plus a million unfilled job vacancies nationally and 9m on some type of benefit, the UK operation is going to struggle going forward?

Https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/apr/08/quit-royal-mail-falling-apart

Derek, I remember recently reading that the current number of walks is 56,000 and the proposed changes will see that reduce by between 6,000 and 9.000? If this is true then that would see a 50% reduction since peak on 2002.

Https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1044571/royal-mail-ofcom-plea-reveals-financial-distress-is-worse-the-market-believes-1044571.html

Unfortunately, I have to say that I agree that this could be the short term outlook for 2024/25. In my opinion, there will eventually be a turnaround in the business but the UK operation has the turning capacity of a super tanker whereas it's competitors have the ability to make changes much more quickly.

It's also interesting to note that the UK operation will now have the last three parcel machines installed before Christmas pressure despite Thompson trying to renege on this as he wasn't convinced that they were required.

Darbo, surely the retention of new recruits doesn't have anything to do with letters as the RM BoD have reminded both employees and shareholders many times that this is a parcels business that delivers letters as a side hustle?

I suspect that Gen Z have worked out that there are more lucrative and easier ways of earning £13 an hour than trudging the streets in the rain delivering parcels. Even the offer of a retention bonus isn't enough to get them to stay and a 15% retention figure says that RM need to look into this with urgency if it wants to deliver its product.

I have no skin in the game as an employee, however I do as a shareholder and I can see that any changes that are agreed by RM, OFCON and the CWU will need to show a significant improvement in quality of service and part of improving QofS is to have the correct staffing levels otherwise it's never going to work.

JB, "DW/MW did mention some interesting stats including only 14% of all traffic is now included in the USO and some 85% of new starters have left if that is the case this needs looking at urgently as part of the whole recruitment and staffing process.".....I think you will find that there is a logical answer as to why 85% of new recruits don't last more than a year. If these are Gen Z then I'm surprised that the figure isn't higher?.....lol

On a different note, there has just been a news item suggesting that the UK operation can save around £300m by the proposed changes to delivery standards but it will mean around 1,000 job losses. This figure equates to just under 1 job loss per delivery office on average. The CWU has put the figure at 6,000 however this would still not save around £300m? Given the wage bill is the single largest outgoing for RM and that the infrastructure will not change drastically, it's hard to see where this figure comes from.

Simx, "it appears as if Seidenberg has found more efficient ways to comply with the USO without the requirement of parliamentary approval"...... which makes you wonder exactly what Greene, Back and Thompson were doing all along? Why didn't they all know about this hack?.....lol