Member Info for OliGarch

ABRoyalMail, actually, MrNation did mention a year in an earlier post.
"MrNation Posts: 6,797

Price: 245.00

No Opinion

RE: Shorts down further Fri 12:01
"Looking fantastic, next year we will see an all time high imo". So presumably you think that the price of RMG shares in 2021 will top the value of £6.31 that it reached on 11th of May 2018? I seriously doubt that.

That's what I'm saying , I believe we see an all time high next year , without the dividend. That's my opinion.

Perhaps MrNation was referring to a "high" of a different kind?...lol

Snapemonster, "many mail centres are being converted into semi-automatic parcel sorting centres from next year"? Where did you get that information from regarding mail centres? Surely you mean Delivery Offices as 300 out of 1250 are being identified for some sort of parcel conveyor system over the next couple of years.
RM currently have capability from 20 Parcel Sorting Machines across 12 out if the existing 37 mail centres and Hubs. This includes our old and outdated FAP1 and FAP2 machines.
The business has just signed a contract for 4 new PSMs with Tyneside getting the first machine which should be up and running by late spring 2021. The remaining 3 machines should be ready for service by the end of 2022. I'm not convinced that 4 machines over the next 2 years constitutes "many".
Increased parcel volumes may look good on paper but haven't yet translated into a profit. Does anyone know if RM are still claiming a loss of £1m a day?

Scamp, I think that you can safely assume that "no news" translates into "not good"?
I think that the RM board will be pleading poverty on the grounds of "record parcel volumes" and an increased spend on Covid-19 safety measures.
As an aside, my office now has a lovely big wedding marquee in the car park so we can store all of those lovely parcels. Rumour has it that it was the thick end of £200k for 3 months rental but cost that is unconfirmed at present.
Let's hope that it will be money well spent.

I don't know what effect if any that this will have on the SP but it looks as though RM are planning to reintroduce van sharing from next week plus there's talk of possibly having to wear face coverings in the mail centre which will presumably add to the mounting cost of PPE for RM?

200iq, you are quite correct. Over the last 5 years, posted letter volumes (not DSA) during December have accounted for 30% of the annual letter box collection mail (not including the non machinable items - too big/too small/too thick/too heavy which is subject to a dubiously accurate manual count). Parcels will undoubtedly be very high numbers but with the current financial state of households and Amazon announcing their sale on 14/15th of October, will there be enough cash left for Joe Public to spend in December or will Christmas cards be sent "virtually" this year via social media which would be disastrous for RM?

Ned, I totally agree with you. My mail centre has failed letters on a few occasions recently in order to concentrate on the parcels citing Covid-19, social distancing and lack of room as reasons for the failure.
Wolves made the point several months ago that "no one waits in for a letter to arrive" and he probably has a point that the days of 1st class letter post are now numbered. Parcels however are a different matter as we simply don't have the storage facilities for them in many of the smaller offices.

Dynamo, it looks as though RM are telling the CWU that we are currently not making a profit so if you are predicting a huge profit based on current volumes then it can only be good for our pay rise.

Welby52, I have noticed a huge upturn in parcel volumes in my office but we are now having to spend a small fortune in marquee hire so that we have extra dry and secure storage plus we need more space to comply with social distancing. Unfortunately I don't think that increased parcel volumes will necessarily translate into increased profits unless each parcel is accompanied by a letter.

Interesting to see how the SP settles down once the shorts reduce so has the market settled for RMG leveling at £2.30 to £2.40?

Crystalball, "those that own and run it can't do as they need, they are massively restricted, a private company that requires parliament approval before changing something to do with it's business".
An interesting scenario indeed and one that many private investors fail to get to grips with.
In 2013, I accused Vince'n'Dave of selling RM off too cheap but perhaps it is they who have mugged us and not vice versa?

Not so long ago, the general opinion was that RM needed to reduce their USO obligation in order to make the balance sheet look more appealing. The timeline issued by the CWU indicates that the earliest this is likely to happen is spring 2022 which is 18 months away and even then it will require parliamentary approval. Given that Covid-19 has already held up many motions in parliament including the changes that RM have put forward for their pensions reform this date of April 2022 looks to be unlikely.
Does anyone have any thoughts as to whether this may hinder progress for the SP going forward?

Released today from CWU HQ
Following on from the RMG AGM there was much speculation in the media regarding the future of the 6 day USO. The Regulator (Ofcom) is carrying out a review, the timescales of which are as follows:

? Ofcom will release a ‘User Needs Review’ based on a consultation they carried out; this is expected around November 2020.
? Ofcom will carry out a consultation on all aspects of the Regulatory Framework (i.e. not just the USO) this is anticipated to be early 2021.
? If any legislation change is required, it is anticipated that this will take place late in 2021.
? Any change would then potentially be introduced in April 2022 subject to receiving parliamentary assent.

To be clear, the CWU policy and the commitments contained in our Four Pillars Agreement is to protect and promote the 6 day USO. Equally, whilst the Regulator and the Government may recommend changes to the Regulatory Framework and the USO, it has to be cleared through parliament.

JB, Scamp, many thanks for posting your views. Having seen the FB session last night (with some rewinding on occasions) and looking at the body language from TP, I am of the opinion that a deal is currently 40/60 against a deal. TP will most certainly be asking for 2.7% for the first year (in keeping with CMA) and the SWW is still very much in the table as it will help protect full time posts going forward. It is also important as it could be the catalyst for achieving different and innovative working patterns which are both more family friendly and easier on the body as staff get older.

scallywag, I'm not sure that the CWU want to "force the population of the UK into the streets shopping on the run up to Christmas during a pandemic" and as you quite correctly state "many alternative delivery companies are fast leaving them behind. and now it doesn't matter who is delivering" so surely the competition would pick up the slack?
The end of the summer holiday season is the traditional time of the year for RM and the CWU to go head to head over a pay deal. It gives time to thrash out a deal or failing successful negotiations gives time for the CWU to ballot and get a return in time for December so as to give the membership an advantage. For the CWU to threaten to strike in the middle of January would not have any effect at all.
I watched last night's CWU brief and it didn't inspire me to think that a deal was in the pipeline.
As you state "many alternative delivery companies....and now it doesn't matter who is delivering ".

You mentioned asset strippers, so what would the asset strippers want with RM? I would imagine that they would want some assets?

Normandy, would a sell off of GLS affect the share price?
According to teslo "the price is where it is for a reason and is another reason why discounted cash flows are so important in valuing a company, NAV asset valuations are pretty meaningless and rarely used in the real world".
So it's all about cash flow and not about asset value?

tsop, I wonder how much profit they made on 17,458,015 shares? I wouldn't mind a penny per share of that :-)

Dynamo, just received the first if my seven briefings. 45 minutes starting with a fairly lengthy video from Stuart Simpson on the importance of RM in the community, how much RM is valued by our customers and how we can all make a positive change. This was followed by another video called Transform by Davy Charles.
It seems that the business is going away from Rico's hard line approach in favour of trying to persuade the employees to go with the business on the journey of transformation. The old 'good cop, bad cop' routine.
Another briefing next week.

Dynamo, thanks for the update although I'm assuming that the briefings are being tailored to the audience. I work in a mail centre so indoor revision, delivery times and PDA actuals are not relevant to me. I would also imagine that other areas of the business such as fleet services and properties & facilities will also have tailored briefings.
BTW, my first briefing in from 1pm to 2pm today with further updates over the next couple of weeks.