Member Info for Oleo

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52295222

When you look at the numbers of perm and Sw, you wonder that they realy got some flowing hydrocarbons to surface.

I like the quality of the reservoirs in N Irak Kurdistan. That's the reason I invested in Gulf Keystone and in Shamaran. My impression was always that Shamaran and Taqa from Dubai have a higher degree of professionalism operating the Atrush oil field, compared to GKP. The rock bottom for us long time holders was the near death experience with GKP some years ago but since that time it seems somehow okayish - of course I am not happy about JFs bad communication with us small shareholders and I do not like it that he buys no shares with his own pocket money neither.
SNM seemed to have a better timing, was diluted but somehow the rough road was less bumpy , till today. At the moment SNM scares because they have troubles to repay a loan. https://www.shamaranpetroleum.com/news/shamaran-first-quarter-2020-financial-and-operatin-122736/
Not happy with GKP but less stress than with SNM. It is not at all smooth, when you are invested in N Irak Kurdistan.

Rest in peace Mike and sincere condolences.
Miss your posts.

One more info snippet for the Total-Tlw deal: according to Pouyanne Total paid $2/bbl for 2C resources of 482m bbls

The 1.50 buyout scenario is not out of touch of the real world in my opinion. This week Total bought for US$ 575 million + x million depending on the oil price in future during future production a 33% asset share from Tullow in Uganda. The lake Albert oilfields got perhaps 2 - 3 billion bbl oil in place and a production of 230.000 bbl/d was published as possible production. Obviously it is very difficult to deal with the politicians in Uganda and that's the reason that no produced oil was sold since the discovery more than 15 years ago. With a higher oil/gas price in the future and because of even long term, more reliable boundaries in NT Australia compared to Uganda, FOG should get a higher price for less delivery interruption risk in down under.

PS: I am sure he would have loved do discuss the - 37 $ per bbl oil price for WTI and the impact on Gkp here.

Since many years I always enjoyed reading Mikey's comments. Wish him the very best from Germany, please.

FOG passing another 7, 10% to ORG is a possible scenario in the future in my opinion to cover coming OPEX&CAPEX for operations in the Beeteloo. I do no think that ORG is interested to buy FOG, but if they get the Beeteloo shares from FOG, they probably would be more than happy to pay 100% of the project cost to increase their Beeteloo asset share. And I think that there is the probability for a future scenario that a company like Inpex is going to buy a perhaps 40% Beeteloo asset share from ORG and hopefully FOG. The Shell/Petrochina announcement for the final Queensland, Surat investment decision is a sign that the big boys think beyond Corona.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-04-04/uncovering-the-secret-history-of-wall-street-s-largest-oil-trade

As much as I understand : no, if we have bad luck and Org has expensive drilling, completion, hydraulic fracturing troubles. Personally I have seen drilling projects, planned for 10, 15 million $ that ended up with costs of 85 million $ for example for a single well. Was one of the extreme examples I have seen. Usually they try to be +/- 10 % above or below budget and +/- 30 % is still okay (at least for me). Drilling is always a risky business.
Yes, I think POQ has got good negotiation skills and yes the double kick Corona and Saudi/Russia oilprice war
make it difficult for him. But from the informations I, we got today, I think he could have done better and not let ORG from the hook (as somebody has written here already).

Burnt child:
Many years ago, some gentlemen who got a good reputation at this time had the vision to drill a deep well in Albania and to discover heaps of hydrocarbons and to get rich. It is well known that it is difficult to drill the flysch facies in Albania and the best drilling engineers from Europe and even the US ended up with nosebleeding. At the end of the day, the drilling became more and more expensive and the share of the asset of the tiny oil company, that started with their vision the well, got a smaller and smaller share because they had to pay the bills for the operations and at final drill depth Shell was the only owner of the well and the tiny oil company disappeared. At Org you find exShell management and my impression, fear is that the small irish fish POQ jeopardizes our tiny, weak Falcon.

Still I am pretty impressed by the sheer size of the monster of 61 tcf OGIP.
But I am not any more that impressed if we get only a waning FOG share of perhaps 1 or 2 tcf recoverable gas? I am afraid we are in for a shrinking FOG sticker price.

Perhaps a panic reaction?

Very strange strategy of the FOG management to sell a part of our most important asset when the oil price shows new low- lows. Would expect they sell it when the oil price is high, NOT low.

Jet, thank you for the link to this article, intelligently analyzing the current situation for OPEC, Saudi King, Putin and Trump.
Nobody knows the future but after a 47,99% plus of the Tlw share price during Friday and the uncertainty of the OPEC influenced (but not by OPEC dictated) oilprice, I would like to short Tlw today for Monday although I am a Tlw LTH - but I do not know how I could short Tlw on a corona Saturday?

Good drilling practice (well cleaning, pressure surges , BHA design), the now started learning curve, an adjusted drilling fluid for reheology and inhibition, filtrate, mudcake etc, with optimized mud weight can make the difference to drill the 2.000 m horizontal section - but no guarantee . And ORG should have the motivation not to give up. Not the first time an oil company needs another sidetrack and another and another ... to finish the well.

Perhaps they got drilling problems, like a fish in hole, causing troubles and they have to drill a side track to get the reservoir. Such problems cost extra time and extra costs ...

Not a real LOL, because a and b would be difficult to solve and would reduce the value of this oilfields

Thank you for sharing the link for the Tlw transcript about the reduced oil production prognosis.
I would like to know:
a) Did they reduce the oil production prognosis because their oil production plateau is lower than expected or
b) did they reduce the oil production prognosis because they see the production decline already caused by the increasing water cut or
c) is this just an oil production hiccup that can be fixed by solving mechanical problems and managing the way how to get rid off the excessive volumes of associated gas?
For me they did not communicate this problems as a structured analysis, for me it was more a parenthetic numeration. Could be a combination of a, b, c but still I would like to know what is the dominant problem. In any case Tlw did not have a realistic assessment of their assets there, resulting in the lower share price now. That's the punishment of overpromising, for being too optimistic , for not having a good guts feeling. Does anybody know where to find the oil production charts of these oilfields with the oil production prognosis problems to improve our own guts felling?