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As soon the nitrogen has reduced the density of the fluid in the well, the gas can kick in, if there is gas. And if there is a high gas rate, the flare can be seen. From the deprussky link I got only clouds again for the 24th of Dez.
But I would expect that the guys went home for Christmas too. So if they come back on Monday, they could run in hole during Monday night and if the gas kicks in, we could expect a flare on Tuesday?

Thank you for the RNS link, thank you Org, for acting like a real E&P company finaly, thank you Fog for informing us. Now we should have the patience to wait some days, that the guys at the well site can go home for Christmas, too, because we have a cased hole situation.
Merry Xmas

Oilcountry:
"the question was asked on the AGM call if a delay in performing the lift post frac would damage the well. Both POQ and Bada said it would not."

Did they explain why there would be no damage?

Did they test the spent fracfluid at downhole temperature with materials from the cores?

Even when they say the well would not be damaged with the spent frac fluid because the tested clay is not reactive and the spent chemicals are not aging , you cannot be sure and there is always a remaining risk to get a skin effect (damage), the more weeks, months we have to wait.

"They also seemed confident they would get the well to flow."
Flow with reservoir water or spent frac fluid, flow with gas or flow with hydrocarbon condensate?
The well was flowing. So you can assume the well will flow again as long as the well was not damaged too much during this amateurish break . But the million $ question is: commercial hydrocarbon flow rate or water.

Was the AGM call recorded? Would be interesting to listen to it.

Newto (auto correction, sorry)

Newton, I am a big fan of this mats.

Hydrogen,
When I see this payloads https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_transport_aircraft#Rotary_wing
yes. Have ordered an urgent transport with a big plane in the past for a well but never with a big chopper (but think it would be pretty cool, and on one of the satellites you can see, there is an airforce base not far away from our Org/Fog well in NT).. . There are oil patch stories that a whole drilling rig has been flown into a jungle for example

Hydrogen, newto do you have confidence that Org would be able to order such a maddish helicopter job just to speed up this project or that Org is going to change the work program 4 days before Christmas?

As somebody said here already. Org is more an utility company than an E&P company. I do not want to bash, but one explanation could be that Org operates many CBM wells in QL, but not many conventional oil, gas wells, nor Texas style shale gas, oil wells. I think that's an explanation for the learning curve we can observe. (Currently I do not work as consultant but could help to write an email as ghost writer if you think such a mail could help as you suggested. As I said, I do not want to bash (I am sure they know swabbing in down under, I think they know that you can use a cap string for lifting a well in down under - you just have to call BH (BH bought such a cap string, mini coil company some years ago), Hal, Slb ...)
And not everything is bad. There are some things I like . I like the concept of placing the other planned wells on the same well site, or I like the prefabricated concrete cellar for the well, I like that they have earmarked some budget for measurements, logging, I like that they did not give up drilling and kept going, after they had troubles with the first horizontal section, and, and and ... you see I have taken already my Fog sleeping and patience pill.

Speaking from my own experience I know that you cannot pass the dirt roads with trucks in Australia to a well location after a rainfall. It becomes a very sticky mud and you even can lose your rubber boots there.
After a hefty rainfall it can take many weeks till you can send the trucks in again.
Alternatively to a standard CT unit with nitrogen you could use a let's say 1/2 inch mini coil (cap string) for this job. A mini coil does not need big volumes of N2. Some bundles with bottles of pressurized N2 could work. Why do I think this could work: the well was flowing, so it does not need much help. Or alternatively a slick line with swap cups.
I am just frustrated that Org did not manage it to keep the well flowing. And I do not see that they considered a contingency plan trying to organize equipment with a much smaller footprint, which could have been done easier and faster (and perhaps even during the wet season) compared to the mobilisation of a conventional CT unit with liquified nitrogen.
You seem pretty sure about the situation and the ordering process with HAL. I think it is best to take a Fog sleeping pill or to watch drying paint, till the dirt roads dry up again in N T too. But will keep an eye on the deprussky satellite images link and the Copernicus Global Wilfire Information System.

(even with the infrared view)

Unfortunately on 19th of December 2020, we see with the deprussky satellite link only clouds and we cannot adumbrate the CT Unit and the flare.

Text from this energynewsbulletin article:

"The venture is currently re-entering the well with coiled tubing and applying nitrogen lift to lower the pressure in the wellbore and sustain a gas breakthrough. "

If this is correct and they run in hole with the coiled tubing, it is perhaps too early to wish merry xmas now, because Org started to work again on the well location and I hope we could get new results bevor 24th.

1+1: 1, 2 days transport to well location
2+1: day shift to rig up CT
3+1: Next day run in hole to total depth and inject nitrogen during day shift for lifting and expect to clean out some proppants. Burnable gas (if there is gas) to surface during night shift.

As operations manager from FOG and/or as operations manager from ORG I would expect first results after 4 days. In the E&P business we work 24/7.

On 10th of December we were told: "The JV has decided to execute operations without delay with all of the necessary equipment and consumables for the nitrogen lift being prepared to mobilise to the well site."

IF they realy want and act like E&P professionals, first results could be presented tomorrow. But I am afraid, the ORG/FOG schedule will be a disappointment. When you analyze the wording of the announcement: "they are preparing to mobilize", and I am talking here about the first results of the execution within 4 days ...

Such EMPs cripple the upstream industry and increase the costs, raised by another million $ or more. For drilling you need now a biologist, counting fauna and flora, weed control, fresh water wells for monitoring etc. Etc. Plus lawyers, public relation companies and you end up with thousands of written pages.

Do you need an EMP when you want to build buildings, for which you need an area as big as an soccer field. Do you need a weed control when you send some trucks to one of the farms there ?

I do not want to say that most of the paper is useless, but it does not improve the safety and security of an oil/ gas well necessarily. I understand that this are the rules in NT, that this was probably the only way to get political support and it gives the green lock the gate people a chance to prevent projects from the industry. It is as it is and in future only bigger projects will be able to carry the extra costs for EMPs, if they are not thwarted by a society that consumes oil and gas like excessive junkies on the other hand.

Chiksan

Yes, I would have expected as you wrote, too. But here they got a vertical flare as you can use for gas and a horizontal flare for the hydrocarbon condensate within an U and not outside of site perimeter piped with chicsan.

According to the NT environmental impact assessment for the frac and test, the weed has to be controlled by a person there, not smoked to prevent the vision with red kangaroos.

This 240 page document answered some of my questions and changed some of my guessed assessments:

-) chance to get a successful water shut off
Technically and from the well construction I would say: yes, possible as long as the geology is with us. First the 5 1/2 " production casing is cemented, second they left a distance of 40 to 100 m between the perforations for the frac stages. Would be interesting for me to see the log (even the mud log would make me happy already)

-) flare
I understand now, they work with a water curtain. They even have photos from the two flares in this pdf and we can be sure about the exact position on the well site now. We just need now a satellite to get a wild fire alarm when there is a big flare

-) distance from the pub in Daly Waters for the biker
The distance is just 70 km one way ;-)

Thank you google. Now I know. See page 44. The vertical stack of the flare I was able to identify on the photo. The U is the fire pit for a "horizontal " classical well test set up.
https://denr.nt.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/948090/Origin-B2-Pty-Ltd-Kyalla-EP117-N2-2H-and-3H_Drill-and-Stim-EMP.pdf
For the U: Instead of containers I would have used soil ...

Frankly I do not know. I am sure about the well head, lubricator etc. because I have done such jobs myself. I used containers to build a much higher wall to reduce noise for neighbours, but did not use containers as fire barrier. I do not know. Must be an Australian, Origin oilfield specific application that I do not know. "The Australian way of water storage" is for example something I know but not such an U.
And I am pretty sure that you can see the perhaps 15, 20 m high stack of the flare (without flame) close at the U.
https://www.katherinetimes.com.au/story/6933446/fracking-to-start-in-the-beetaloo/?src=rss

Perhaps this wild fire satellite is better. In the Libyan, Saudi desert you can identify fires. For sure this are flares from oil, gas fields.
But I have problems to find our well location in NT.
https://gwis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/static/gwis_current_situation/public/index.html

Deprussky, you marked the wellhead with BOP and lubricator as flare. The flare is near the white U.