Member Info for Oleo

SS, appreciate your shared info and shows that the Santos colleagues are optimistic and bullish Beetaloo bulls.

Newto
About 850 000 cft/d but it is just a very rough estimation.
"We had between 400 and 600 thousand cu. ft. over that limited 17 hour flow back test in January -- which works out to approximately 700,000 cu ft. per day if a 24 hour test had of been successful."
This could fit with this numbers. I am sure the Org guys at the well site shot the video, when the flare showed a big flame and not a small flame. When you open a gas well after a shut in there is always the chance to see a good rate when you open the valve for the first time.

Gonoles, thank you very much for sharing the link about the new video from the well site.
On the left side you can see the flare. I estimate this is about 1.000 m3 gas/h.
Unfortunately the quality of the video is not the best. But you can see the crane , holding a lubricator. But for me the quality is not good enough to recognize if we have a slick line truck( for swabbing for example) or a small coiled tubing unit ( for lifting) at well site.
The positive part is, we see a flare.
Unfortunately we only can cross our fingers that they reach a ten fold higher stabilized gas rate one day in the near future.

did not help their share price

A sustaining production rate of 10 mmcft/d would be great.

Empire's result are a little bit disappointing and did not their share price today https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=AU%3AEEG&insttype=Stock
Empire had "only " 4 frac stages, obviously not the sweet spot or the wrong recipe for the frac ?

Ss
A horizontal well can deliver a 3 or a five or even a 10 fold etc. Depends on length of horizontal section, number of frac stages and of course on geology = quality of reservoir.

https://asx.api.markitdigital.com/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02388589-2A1305759?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4

A) Empire’s Carpentaria-1 vertical well has flowed gas to surface at rates that exceed expectations including an initial peak rate of >0.5 mmscf / day and an initial stabilized rate of 0.37 mmscf / day over a 72-hour test period and an instantaneous peak rate following a short shut in of >1.6 mmscf / day
The flow rates achieved to date at Carpentaria-1 compare favourably to other wells drilled and flow tested in the Beetaloo Sub-basin, particularly given the reduced development costs Empire expects in future given the shallower depths in which the target shales are present in Empire’s Beetaloo Sub-basin properties.

B) The first flow test of Santos’ Tanumbirini-1 vertical well flowed at initial rates of 1.2 mmscf / day settling down to 0.4 mmscf / day1. The second test, which followed an extended shut-in period, flowed at higher rates.

C) Origin Energy’s Kyalla 117 horizontal well flowed at 0.4 - 0.6 mmscf / day over 17 hours2 and Origin Energy’s Amungee NW-1H horizontal well, which had 11 fracture stimulation stages, flowed at 1.15 mmscf / day over a 57-day test3

None of these tests is a gusher in my opinion till now. But still there is hope the Beetaloo can get a comercial production, after cracking the code of the Beetaloo perhaps.

Or Fog hires such a specialist from the US, the Permian to influence Org as Tamboran Resources tries to do with Santos?

Perhaps Org could hire some staff from Pioneer as well?

Riddle also touched on the company’s operating team, which was recruited from Pioneer Natural Resources – one of the top shale operators in the US.“The expertise that we’re bringing from the US is not just influencing Santos but it’s really to ensure that we can operate on EP136 in a way that you would see operators performing in the Permian and the Marcellus, the best shale basins in the world,” he explained.“The learning curves that have been developed in the Permian, we’re going to be adopting from day one.“These are world class people using the latest technology, so a real focus for the company is to make sure that we’re designing seventh generation shale wells, not starting out with generation one, which is really one of the keys to unlocking the value in the Beetaloo.”

In 2009 is was difficult to predict the future and 12 years later we have the same problem.
In 2009 the Beetaloo was a sedimentary basin and some wells showed hydrocarbons. Today some more wells show hydrocarbons but it still is a resource only. One missing link are production tests with commercial flow rates for the next step. To monetize this asset we have to transfer the resources to reserves with production wells, pipelines, gas processing facilities and a market. The future is always foggy and especially for FOG.

It looks like Nigerians have a much more realistic view of the oil market than all the highly paid greenwashed brains of Europe's big oil companies, consultants, think tanks, politicians&journalists etc. put together.

Empire reported that a frac with 4 stages was pumped successfully.
Interesting for us will be to watch the next steps: how many days Empire will need for the coiled tubing job, the lifting and backflow and the production test.

Thank you for sharing.
For me the interpretation is difficult:
- the water pool was installed on the wellsite in an area, where usually you do not install a water pool. Why did they not use the existing pits?
- the water pool could be filled up with fresh water. But for what do you need the fresh water? Do they want to kill the well for a workover rig? But again, it is strange that the water storage was placed there because I would say that during a workover you need this area for trucks, the fork lift etc
- the water storage could be filled with water from the well. But again, why do they not use the pits?

When you watch the wildfires, CO2 and methan emissions on Copernicus, you see fires only near the Highway Inn Caravan Park, at the crossways Stuart-Carpentaria Highways during 30 days. Must have been a BBQ?
https://gwis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/apps/gwis_current_situation/index.html

So in the case, Org is already producing the well, we see water only and no hydrocarbons, because we see no fire signature and no methan signature. If you have some gas, even just a small amount you can expect that some gas bubble move through the water column in the well. And you would see a fossil dinosaur fart at the beginning, when you open the well after such a long shot in time.

4th risk: Fog sleeps through the beginning of the new rules and chances in South Africa concerning the plans to use gas instead of coal for power generation. Fog has to position itself in SA otherwise clever TOTAL will do the deals and business there. Recently for example I watched a videocall update from the canadian Africa Oil Corp. where the CEO mentioned the improving political situation for E&P and in particularly for gas in SA. (Obviously Fog does not know that with zoom, teams etc. a video presentation could be done easily for shareholders and interested investors? Or Fog is not interested to communicate with us? Or Fog is not interested that interested parties buy shares ? )

What are the consequences for Fog?

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa was happy to allow the draft upstream bill to go before parliamentPhoto: AFP/SCANPIX

South Africa's crucial new upstream bill set to head to parliament

Cabinet of President Cyril Ramaphosa gives go-ahead for draft Upstream Petroleum Resources Development Bill to head to legislature, perhaps next month

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14 May 2021 15:37 GMT UPDATED 14 May 2021 15:37 GMT
By Iain Esau in London
South Africa’s government has given the go-ahead for the draft of its much-needed and long heralded upstream oil and gas bill to go before parliament.

According to a statement published on Thursday on the website of President Cyril Ramaphosa, his cabinet approved the submission of the Draft Upstream Petroleum Resources Development Bill to parliament.

This bill — which will replace part of the existing Minerals & Petroleum Resource Development Act — aims to provide a legislative and regulatory framework that is conducive to investments, growth and job creation.

Gain valuable insight into the global oil and gas industry's energy transition from ACCELERATE, the free weekly newsletter from Upstream and Recharge. Sign up here today.

It is also expected to give clarity on issuing of permits and rights, transferring these rights, as well as participation by black people and the state.

Upstream was told by an informed source that the draft legislation will call for “best efforts” to find a black partner in an exploration right, but a black economic empowerment interest will definitely be needed in a production right.

The draft bill also highlights the need for petroleum rights holders to sell a percentage of the oil produced — at prevailing market prices — to the state oil company.

A new state player called the South African National Petroleum Company was unveiled last year that would brig together PetroSA, IGas and the Strategic Fuel Fund.

According to a source with knowledge of South Africa’s political process, the next step is that a memorandum of objectives will be published in a government gazette to set out the objectives of the bill, before the bill is then gazetted, perhaps in June.

"We anticipate that the updated iteration of the Upstream Petroleum Bill will be publi...
See https://www.upstreamonline.com/politics/south-africas-crucial-new-upstream-bill-set-to-head-to-parliamen

Don't be the ugly stone-hearted share holder. For me it would be ok when the Kurds use the money to buy Covid vaccinations for their people, even if I would get only 50% of the planned dividend this year.
But I got no sympathy for corruption at all.
I think it is a good idea to have a diversification strategy, that Gkp gets a second and a third leg outside of Kurdistan.
IMHO this single dodgy leg in Kurdistan is a corporate risk for GKP and we need a urgent mitigation for this political, corruption risk!

https://www.the-star.co.ke/business/kenya/2021-05-10-state-pursues-land-for-lokichar-lamu-oil-pipeline/?fbclid=IwAR2kwdt8sGKSsxkG1RSPbJ5iyMGYR8K-7gdAAOGDDSeIAf02f9k8zjXJ0XY

The process of land acquisition for the laying of the 824-km Lokichar-Lamu Oil Pipeline, also known as the Kenya Crude Oil Pipeline, is expected to be completed in December.

Petroleum and Mining CS John Munyes has said through the Lapsset and the National Land Commission, the government is engaging communities in six counties to give up their land.

“That is the condition. Until we get the land and then the private sector comes in and the government puts money to lay the pipeline. We will have to wait,” said the CS.

The pipeline will pass through Lamu, Meru, Isiolo, Garissa, Samburu and Turkana counties.

“We hope to finalise this process by end of this year,” he said.

The shale gas in Namibia gets a lot of attention
https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/reconafrica-sees-stock-price-surge-after-promising-wildcat-results-in-namibia/2-1-996119
And in South Africa the politicians are rewriting the playbook for the gas market (without Fog?) due to the new exploration success offshore.

ORG released the quarterly report. Concerning the Beetaloo it is written that during the first three months Org was planning the future work. What a pathetic text.
Planning of a production test could be done within one working day easily when you know your business, because it is low profile, standard operations for an O&G company.

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02369204-2A1295292?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4

I think Fog with the big shale gas resources should be a very active and important part of the discussions and should play an active role for shaping the future power generation in SA, now.
Without ambition, one possible future could be that SA is not interested to use shale gas because they got enough offshore gas?

Here is the link to the presentation.
https://falconoilandgas.com/company-presentations/#1541158622782-52acf8a2-2f7f
Obviously no activity at all in South Africa. In my opinion this is grossly negligent, because the political and exploration boundaries are changing in SA. Total and the Qataris discovered gas and gas condensate in SA offshore recently and there is the talk that SA will shut down the coal power stations and will use gas in the future. Where is Fog, do they try to take an active position to marketing our gas there. For SA it would be more economical to use the high pressure high rate conventional gas wells for LNG and export and our unconventional low pressure gas wells for power generation. In Namibia a small Canadian company thinks it has proofed the extension of our shale gas basin and is generating some excitement. Why does Fog not use this hype as a tailwind for our SA resources to generate some excitement for our asset in SA and for the share price of Fog, too?