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Time is working for the Beetaloo IF Fog can present the sweet spot with sustaining production rates, because shale will (? and when?) run out of sweet spots in the US.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Running-Out-Of-Sweet-Spots-The-Biggest-Problem-For-US-Shale.html

Have not the time to replay. But did I understand correctly?
Did he say: The fault is seen as reason of deformation of casing.

Hmm, I think the fault was not reactivated after casing installation and that's the reason the fault is not the direct reason.

Perhaps an indirect reason. Org was drilling. Because of the fault the well site geologist showed an overreaction because he got afraid to loose the formation, ordered a sharp change of the well path and the directional driller drilled a dog leg. The dog leg then created a plastic deformation of the casing. So this casing was deformed by the forces of the dog leg, the too weak casing material and not by the fault.

Is keeping away from faults a good idea? This Could be the reason for spending money on 3D seismic for a better planning of the drill path. But it is two-edged:

No: if you try to get a reservoir with good permeabilities for better production rates.
Yes: because than you have perhaps less drilling problems or production problems with natural fractures full of water perhaps.

Fingers crossed they get it right next time.

100 % agree with Wet and Rocker
But I am not sure about this sentence:
"Falcon/Origin probably saw the flow rate numbers holding steady for a period of time and called it done."
Done because ....?

Interesting question from Will.
Spontaneous answer: because of 2 weeks, 4 weeks on - off shifts perhaps and money limitations.
Serious answer: when you plan such a test you want to reach some targets and get some answers and measurements. And this will rule the duration of the test and you have to know that every reservoir, even every well is different that means will need more or less time.
A good well will kick in fast and the time for the flow back will be short. A bad well will need more time and the help for lifting with coiled tubing. The longer you produce, the deeper you can "look" into the formation, by interpreting the pressure signature. Is it a reservoir with pressure support ( for example an aquifer), is the reservoir big or just small etc etc.
The final production curve is important: https://www.eia.gov/analysis/drilling/curve_analysis/

I think the B2B text is a realistic statement.

First, Sto and Org delivered mixed production test results.

The good news first: both delivered production test results, good enough to do the next steps as you can read about the next planned steps.

But unfortunately not good enough that the share prices of Fog , and of the neighbors shoot to the moon. Both operators (Sto, Org) seem to have technical problems and are still searching the code for cracking the Beetaloo. I think the input of the new invested US teams, the input of the service companies like Schlumberger, Halliburton etc can and will help.

In the US it always took some years and many not so optimized wells till somebody said: ok, that's it, we know now where and how to drill, how to do the completion and how to do the hydraulic stimulation. ((you just have to read the history of Mr. Mitchel, the N Dakota story, the Permian, the Wolfcamp etc.)

Second: So at the end of this day we are still doomed to wait for the next results, hoping for higher sustaining production rates.

New2fo,

I assume Sto/Tnb used logging while drilling (LWD) for the horizontal section. With this logs you can select the best parts for stimulation.

The other approach is, to pump a frac every xy meter depending on the expected drainage area of the planned frac stage, when you have a homogeneous reservoir.

The not so good news of today: only 75% are carried by Org of 2022s work program

Falcon Oil & Gas is pleased to provide an update on the Beetaloo Sub-Basin. 2022 will see Falcon Oil & Gas progressing to the Stage 3 work programme of the restated Farm-Out Agreement, which will include the drilling, fracture stimulation and extended production test of two horizontal wells.

“This is an extremely important period for the Beetaloo Sub-Basin and we are delighted to have confirmed a high-impact, extensive and really exciting work programme for the joint venture.

“Falcon remains largely (circa 75%) carried for 2022, with the balance of costs being funded from existing resources. Positive results here will provide a further line of sight to the commercialisation of the Beetaloo and could lead to a pilot development program in 2023.” - Philip O’Quigley

And I can share another observation. We had a big flare and a cloudy day and this flare was able to "burn" a blue sky hole into the clouds

By the way, I know another well, that got a monster potential which is in the drilling phase now and should be tested soon, if successfull. It's a conventional reservoir target and if successful I a expect a hughe flare.

Will be exciting days in 2022 when the horizontal wells will be drilled by Org (hopefully successful, hopefully by applying the lessons learned, hopefully by not repeating the same mistakes I.e. casing diameter restriction etc), During testing we will spot the infrared satellite images from the well site again.
Perhaps Fog could install some web cams on the well site as well?

H2, you are the best :-)

Thank you very much, H2

And by the way, I still think that POQ should do his homework in South Africa, where the political and economical boundary conditions are changing.
https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Opportunities-for-Gas-in-Sub-Saharan-Africa-Insight-44.pdf

I didn't watch the activities of Fog's neighbors closely as you. But do you get the satellite signatures as well with Effis using CO2, Methan, black carbon using VIIRS?

https://gwis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/apps/gwis_current_situation/index.html

The presentation we discussed here two weeks ago already I think, so nothing new, but there were some good questions & answers.

https://www.farmoutangel.com/assets/south-africa-south-western-karoo/

Everything positive.
And I like the gas bleeding cores.

Exploration - appraisal - development and production:

As long as commercial production rates cannot be demonstrated, we will not see the share price for the billion dollar price/value of Fog.

A buying oil company will ask: where is the sweet spot of the Beetaloo
And secondly: which completion, how many meters for the horizontal section with how many fracs, which spacing etc do we need to get the best production

At the sweet spot you earn the most of the money because there you get the highest gas production and the highest hydrocarbon condensate production. Sadly we cannot answer this questions and we are far away from having presented such a sweet spot with a commercial production rate.

Amungee fu#k up:

6 from 11 plugs not milled out and not removed at the Amungee NW 1H is grossly negligent.

If the operator would have cleaned out the whole horizontal section, there would be a good chance that a commercial production rate would have been demonstrated already and Fog would be in a much better situation ( no oil company would put money on the table for a hypothetical normalized production rate)

Perhaps somebody like Poods could mention this at the AGM? And what actions POQ has started to tell the operator that this is not okay at all.

As I said: a new completed and fractured well and 6 plugs are still in place. This is grossly negligent against Fog and even Org share holders.

What's the plan from Org to improve this situation at Amungee NW 1H ASAP? What's the plan from POQ to motivate the operator?

Strange Kyalla 117 operations:

Oh, sorry we have a restriction in the horizontal section of Kyalla 117 and have to wait some months till the rain season is over. And after some time: uuhmm, no there is no restriction there. Hmm, so why Fog and Org cannot communicate clearly what is going on there. Are they still not able to run a tool in hole to total depth as I would expect as quality control with a caliber? Or do we have a fu#k up there because the water saturation is too high or because a natural fracture full of reservoir water has been hit? Or do we just have to lift the spent frac fluid out of the hole? So, what are the plans for Kyalla 117 for the next steps or do they still not understand their problems downhole? Do we have a problem that can be solved, like installing a pump for the spent frack fluid? Or do we have a complete fu#k up at the Kyalla 117 because we drilled into a formation full of reservoir water (and not enough gas and condensate)?

Tried to mention what POQ had explained in the past to us longs...about the valuations and about rewarding the longs...

... as soon as a sustainable commercial gas production rate can be demonstrated.

LOL, gave you a thumb up. And POQs English should be much better than mine.

Today I saw an article about the Vaca Muerta. I watch the Vaca Muerta as long as the Beetaloo. My bet was and is the Beetaloo because I thought it is a big advantage to have a shale gas basin in a western country, compared to the dead cow reservoir in bankrupt Argentina. But now this dead cow produces about 175 000 bbl/d and the Beetaloo zero.