Member Info for Oleo

I expect that Philip O`Quigley will answer with "Yes, Sir" whatever the Sheffields say.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/origin-to-sell-controversial-beetaloo-basin-fracking-project-for-60m-20220919-p5bj67.html

@stracat
"The proposition being posited that GKP can continue its current trajectory of shareholder returns for the next two to three years as well as fund a $900m investment programme is financially illiterate."

From where or how did you get the $ 900 millions investment programme?

I assume that a big part of the infrastructure exists already and in my opinion you do not need to drill 50 wells?
I even asume that you could reduce the number of wells, well pads etc. by drilling horizontal wells into the sweet spots of the reservoirs in the future.

In the past Fog had the basin master position in the Beetaloo plus a sharp CEO.
Today others coin the E&P headlines in the Beetaloo.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Nigerias-Oil-Exports-Plunge-To-Record-Low.html

Not politically.
I am saying the Kavango is geological relevant.

Because when the Karoo in the Kavango (plus offshore in Namibia and South Africa) went from targeting unconventional to conventional exploration targets then the Geology of Fog's Karoo should get a new geological assessment as well.

Dolerite

Dolarite, not dolomites :-)

In the Beetaloo Fog is not anymore in the driver seat and not much "real" work can be done at the drilling front.

But I got one more Karoo example: originally Recon Africa had the concept to explore for unconventional shale reservoirs in the Karoo in the Kavango Basin. Today Recon Africa is hunting for conventional reservoirs in the Kavango Basin. And Fog?

One more:

In the past Fog celebrated themself because they thaught and communicated that they are in a better position than Shell because Shell has to drill through magmatic rock to reach the Karoo in the neighbour block.

I am not sure. Perhaps Shell is in a much better position because the magmatic layer is a good cap rock?

Again. I am getting ****ed that Fog does not deliver anything about these topics (because they do no research (this can be done with small money) instead they are passive and just wait and do nothing - as I understand)

Here I have one more point. And I suggest you guys in contact with POQ, ask him about the geology in the Karoo.

As I understand: E&P got a new geological understanding of the Karoo, and this new understanding is proofed especially since Total and Shell made their offshore discoveries in Namibia and South Africa. In the past the Karoo was seen as shale and source rock only. But thanks to the work from Dr Mello (you can google his publications) there is a new and much better understanding of the Karoo. When you got turbidites, it can happen that you can get big, clean sandbodies on the top of the Karoo and this sandbodies are the most exciting oil/ gas discoveries from Shell and Total in South Africa and Namibia in the Karoo in 2021, 2022.
Before Fog came to the Karoo, one well was drilled. This well had a too lousy production for a conventional reservoir but a promising test rate for an unconventional reservoir.
Therefore I am suggesting to sponsor PhD thesis for geologists together with the South African Geological Survey to get a better understanding of Fog's Karoo. I think that Mr POQ thinks that we need hydraulic fracturing for an unconventional Karoo. But perhaps we are in the lucky position there and got conventional reservoirs as well that could be produced without fracturing? If Fog does not do the research we will never know.

WetWater
But how does it come that
Renergen is drilling gas wells onsbhore in SA
Kinetiko is drilling gas wells onshore in SA
and Fog not?

Why do we not see Fog on this list?
https://connect.itegroup.com/rs/344-AEZ-891/images/AOW%20Companies%20Attending.pdf
Or does the Karoo has zero value for Fog?

I do not want to be a broken record.
Oleo: Serious Question - What would you have Falcon do differently at this stage of the game.

South Africa
Fog has to become proactive in the Karoo. We were told that political reasons are the reasons of no activities. But that's not true. Just watch for example how enthuasticly this Kinetiko guy is talking about the support he is getting in South Africa for his onshore gas wells : start at around 1h 4 min in this video: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KK4P-zYCXPw
Realy, do I have to tell Mr POQ what he could do? Go to SA, find partners like Sasol, like power generating companies, invite our friends from Texas I.e. Pinoneer to SA, etc, Talk to politicians, journalists, neighborhoods in the Karoo, the stake holders, start preperation projects, research projects with the South African Geological Survey for example about the ground water ( will be needed when you want to produce gas there), the gas containing formation by sponsoring some PhD theses for geologist ( will cost a fraction of Mr POQ salary) ... find and present potential gas buyers, etc etc

Australia Beetaloo
Oil companies call that joint venture influencing. Send a seconded engineer to the Org office, working together with the Org Beetaloo project team to get first hand information which can be used for talks with the Org management. Present letter of intend with gas seller, develop concept to get the gas CO2 neutral , try to maintain your own know how about the Beetaloo and try to improve Org's work programs etc etc

The most passive company in the Beetaloo is Fog :-(
Our CEO does not plan wells, does not organize any drilling rigs or permission, does not operate anything except the coffee machine in the office perhaps, does not present any letter of intend for a future sales process. He is such a sleepy person that he is not presenting us a concept how the in the future produced gas from Fog could be turned into CO2 neutral gas for example because CO2 neutral natural gas could result in a higher sales price when Fog is sold one day (perhaps). I think Inpex and Santos discuss about CO2 concepts in Darwin. Is Fog an active part of this discussion? And he plays no active role in South Africa, although the political boundary conditions are changing there.

When POQ started to work for Fog he was a sharp manager and CEO but today Fog is passive and not proactive. And we as shareholders have to wait till Empire, Tamboran, Santos and slow Origin (who have not enough commitment to keep their whole Beetaloo share because they want to farm out) drill and test the first Beetaloo gusher. I still think that there is a good chance that this gusher can be drilled and produced in the Beetaloo and hopefully in or duplicated in Fog's acre. I hope the Pioneer influence can shortcut the waiting for this first gusher in the Beetaloo and we do not need as many trial and error wells as Mr Mitchell in Texas who drilled the first commercial shale gas wells there. Best is to watch all wells closely in the Beetaloo as we have done. The trend, the slow trend is pointing in the right direction till hopefully one well can change everything . But hard to say if it is the next well or if we have to wait for x more wells.

PS: no harm without benefit: a passive POQ does not waste an enormous sum of shareholder money during this waiting game.

See Fig 1.1
https://petrowiki.spe.org/Petroleum_Resources_Management_System
In a nut shell: a bank will give you a loan for produceable reserves but never ever for resources. But shareholder ( me included) have no problem to risk money for resources.

Hay BC nat gas

I am not sure but my impression is, yes the test rates are somehow on the low level almost okayish but for sure not big enough, not close enough to an attractive commerciality to make a difference for the share price. I am afraid, we will have to wait for the game changing gusher, that hits the sweet spot in the Beetaloo, that cracked the code for the Beetaloo shale and that will be in the global news and headlines.

And people like me do not like this overpromising primitive math trick with the normalization because this is not the reality with fluid flow physics plus inhomogeneous geology.

The 3rd presentation within this video is about our neighborhood in the Beetaloo.
https://youtu.be/8S7Ktg-NMXg
(Although I have do admit, because I am a little bit disappointed from the long Fog delivery waiting time, my favorite presentation is the second one from Africa. If this guy would be Mr Bruner he would say we have about 100 tcf. prospective resources. With all these identified prospects he could say that but this guy prefers to underpromis and says we have a 20 tcf third party certified prospective resource there and the best: in about 7,10 days they are going to spud and the well will deliver or not. No decade long waiting time as with Fog. When I compare Mr MacMilan as biggest shareholder in this company with Mr PoQ without much skin in the game, than Mr PoQ is not any more a sharp manager, more a old worn out manager after a decade without delivery who had his chance?) But no worries. If the sleepy team Org/Fog does not deliver, the neighbours' success in the Beetaloo will help to monetize Fog. Sorry for being sarcastic but the waiting for Fog has worn out me too as a long time holder.

I think first of all the CEO ist aligned to Lansdowne Partners Austria GmbH and not to retail shareholders. I think the current dividend strategy is the strategy of Lansdowne Partners Austria GmbH which is ok for me as well.

And today a decade later we see just a fraction of the fraction of Bruner's wet 1 0 0 TCF vision.

"I have heard very exciting rumors as to whom Origin is in talks with - if rumor has is right, that transaction will be sooner rather than later. Falcon is on the verge of greatly improving its shareholder value - yours and mine!"

Hay WeWa, I think if it is just a rumor, I think you can publish it here because everybody knows a rumor can be right or wrong, or like the smoke of a fire or baseless fantasy.