Member Info for Oleo

obviously some equipment arrived at the well site

"The Northern Territory government estimates that the Beetaloo could hold more than 200,000 petajoules of gas, although not all of that would be recoverable if the projects do prove viable."

Not sure if the 200,000 PJ for the OOIP is or will be correct for the Beetaloo? Lets say perhaps 10% of this gas can be produced. Than you get 20,000 PJ or about 20,000 BCF or 20 TCF. I am hoping for more.

At the moment it looks like:
Riddle from TBN got a better relationship to the Texas bear hunter Sheffield for getting a good part of the skin than POQ from FOG who overlept to be prepared to get a better deal. And I think It is time that Mr Nelly becomes a pensioner because I cannot see what he could achieve for FOG with Mr Sheffield sitting already in Australia.

Not much to discuss at the moment. After the not so successfull 77.5% revolt of the minnow in Ireland we have to wait for the next steps and decisions made in Texas.

Wet Water: I agree and thats the reason I still cry over this spilled beans

The reward could have been realy big, not a giant, an elephant as the association of american petroleum geologist would specify 140 TCF

I think as well that Sheffield could have the desire to increase his share in Fog because Fog is the only company in the Beetaloo without the 5.5% royalty for ORG. Even for his own 38.75% share he will have to pay 5.5%. The conclusion could be that he wants to see a lower share price of FOG to buy cheaply. And he has the degree of freedom to sell FOG or TBN or his own share for a farmin to another player who needs gas as the companies with LNG trains (my favorite are the Japanese). Hmm when I hear from Mr POQ that the sale of FOG is off the table someone could assume he wants to keep FOG because of the royalty problem with his own share and TBN.

For beeing bypassed by Sheffield/ORG there should be consequences for POQ, because he was not able to take actions to get a better results for FOG. You cannot give away a world class asset with giant prospective resources of 140 TCF which belong to the biggest resources on this planet on the cusp of commerciality (ok this is still a little bit dodgy) just for a song. But I am afraid Mr POQ is already hiding behind Mr Sheffield and aligned executing Mr Sheffield's strategy. Which is probably good to get the Beetaloo into gas production but not the best result for long time FOG share holders.

Well, perhaps wetwater's belief does not understand what small fish understands LOL

wetwater said: "Smallfish: I don't believe you understand the consistency/extent of these table-top shale formations. These shale formation production potentials don't vary significantly from one location (pad) to adjacent areas. If these next two Amungee wells prove to be 'commercial' it is said they can help prove up the acreage between those two wells and the Tamboran wells some 30-40(?) km to the west - that is IF the Tamboran wells are commercial wells ."

And this is one argument that a standard sole risk clause is not the big achievement for FOG in a shale gas play, achieved with POQ's negotiation talent, isn't it?

The sole risk clause could make sense only when you see that the Sheffield gang is not able to crack the code of the Beetaloo shale and needs to stimulate perhaps 10 more well to get a commercial test production or cannot identify the sweet spots in the Beetaloo. In this case it can be an advantage to sit behind the fence and watch carefully before you join again. (but for such a position you need independent specialists with know how and on the ground and not necessarily a secondee from Sheffield in Ireland)

apropos: Join the real world guy.

Did POQ really think that he could organize to buy the 77.5% within 30 day?

or as you wrote: Oleo: I totally agree that 29 days is a short timeframe but I also think for what's at stake $45 million USD might not be a big hurdle for an aggressive JR oil company or independent. Heck, that kind of money is pocket change for some of the independents here in the PB. For anyone wanting exposure to the Beetaloo partnering with Falcon could be a sweet deal. For all we know it could just be a financial investment for a non-oil person/company/institution. Lots of potential for someone willing to roll the dice.

But I understand, in your case it is just a speculation of a share holder and not a question if somebody is in the real world or not.

WeWa: You are right that within 30 days it would be difficult to organize such a vote. But: A big company like Origin does not decide impulsively within 30 days or some weeks to sell a complete asset as the Beetaloo. Such a decision is approved by their board. I assume that Origin prepared the playbook for selling the Beetaloo already since a year perhaps if not longer. Just the passive FOG management in Ireland, without secondees within the operating project team in Australia, overslept the new strategy of Org completly. POQ even did not get any information from his own share holder Sheffield (!!!) that they are preparing to buy the 77.5% together with TBN. POQ was completly left in the dark, and was in the same position as a mushroom FOG shareholder (leave in the dark and feed with horse shi$).

If POQ would have been a sharp CEO he would have known this new developments since ages and he could have informed all share holders in time. Which could have ended up in a vote. (But I understand as well that Mr Sheffield is not interested in such a development )

I would welcome the posssibilty to vote if FOG`s near or midterm sale is off the table or not, and if FOG goes for the 100% Beetaloo asset share or not.

I can live with the situation that Sheffield is the new dominating Master in the whole Beetaloo. At least we see less poor management from POQ in the future because the important decisions will be done by Sheffield. (Perhaps thats good for POQ as well and his dream job anyway: he has to wake up in his FOG-shell in Ireland only when Sheffield gives him a call about a new development in the Bettaloo)

word picking:
according to the PRMS reserves and resources are defined. So in this case word picking is important and has not only a geological, technical but also a legal background

Thank you for advising me.
But I got a much better idea.
According to lse.co.uk, not even one trade was executed.
Here we got some guys , who use adjectives like brilliant, best etc for the current deal and if you are convinced as you say, Y'all should buy more shares that I can sell LOL

sugar coating a deal for selling the ROFR for one of the world wide largest prospective resources in Australia at a too low price does not help neither.

The only hole I can see is the cratered share price of FOG that lost 75% since drilling is allowed in the NT again in 2017 and although the natural gas prices, LNG prices show all time highs in Australia and Europe today.

https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=ca%3Afog&insttype=&freq=2&show=&time=13

Unfortunately POQ has taken the low risk low reward option. He had the chance to bring back FOG into the E&P headlines with a better deal in October 2022 as he has done in the times when he played hard ball with Hess.
But this time he dropped the ball.

interesting for me to read the text from some people here some weeks ago that they think that FOG should overtake the 77.5% and today the same people think that it is a good deal to give the ROFL away for cheap 6.75 million austral $. or as I say to give up the fight for 140 tcf gas = high reward option. Already some weeks ago I did not really dare POQ to beat Sheffield during negotiations. But today I am displeased that this 6.75 million austral $ deal is way too cheap for the FOG share holders.

And a standard sole risk clause in E&P contracts is standard, nothing to get excited. Sad that this is used as an argument to sell this cheap deal.

Anyway you can expect this will become a boring forum and we will see a depressed share price as long as we will not get any real good well test production data. But POQ prepared us already today that we will have to wait till 2023/24.

often you can see such constellations offshore, when you need access to a offshore platform in the neighbourhood but where you have no shares.
They rip you off

when there is a block where FOG decided that they do not want to join and the gathering line is crossing this block, the owners of this block will rip off FOG with fees for using the gathering line in their block

By the way newto
I always appreciated your writing here and there are many points I agree.
But today you write just a claqueur because the voting machine from mister market shows a low share price for FOG which does not overlap the saying of a brilliant deal or POQ.

sarcasm does not work in a forum like this. so I am not sure if I understand?
Newto perhaps you mean this was the best deal that POQ has ever done - for himself?

"I think this is the best outcome we could possibly have expected in such a short time frame, and in the longer run -- maybe the best deal that POQ has ever done. "

Newto, for my this sounds like a cynical joke.

It was POQ´s management not to get better results or offers.

Frack me: it is even worse than
"What they got for not exercising their ROFR.
Was $30m carry that gets them through the next 4 wells (which should boost the share price) allowing them to save possibly tens of millions when raising further cash."

Fog sold the 77.5% for just 6.75 million australian $

If FOG would have managed to have a contigency buyer in the bottom drawer, this new partner could have bought the share of ORG plus a more substantial offer for a free carry for FOG

ITguy, thanks for the link

my conclusions:

- Now it is obvious Mr Sheffield, the new puppetmaster and Mastermind in the Beetaloo has Mr POQ by the short and curlies (at the drilling rig the rough necks would say castration). Question: do we need Mr POQ as CEO, who is famous for his negotiaton skills when there is nothing else to be negotiated anymore in the Beetaloo. We need now a cheaper CEO who just says " yes Sir", when Mr Sheffield dicdates the next steps.

- I think that Mr Sheffield got a good Master plan for the Beetaloo. But we could have had a better plan and result for FOG

- I am not happy that they are not going to sell FOG as we were told for more than one decade. Now POQ tells us that the monetizing by selling FOG after proving a commercial production rate is off the table. I think it is Mr Sheffield`s strategy to earn mony with gas production from FOG. With this new strategy it can take perhaps another 10 or so years till FOG earns real money. As I understand POQ does not expect a substantial cash flow from commercial wells before 2024. When you have wells with commercial test rates in 2024 , FOG will need many hundreds of millions $ even for the 22.5% share to finance development. And I am tired to wait. But it will work out nicely till Mr POQ is in the age to retire (was this the sweetener Mr Sheffield offered cheap Mr POQ for not being a trouble make for the too cheap selling of the ROFR too cheaply?)

- This video is full of gosh selling bullshi$. The clause for sole risk and come back into participation of a well or not is an absolute standard clause in joint venture contracts in the oil patch. And gosh Mr POQ has the guts in explaining us that FOG has achieved something fantastic, full of advantages for FOG. Gosh what a bullshi$. FOG does not have a team of geologists, geophysicists, seismic specialists, drilling, production, reservoir, facilities engineers to assess the risk if it is a good idea to participate drilling or not to particpate before a well is drilled.
[[[I admit it would be an interesting and gosh a funny concept if FOG would join the free carry of perhaps 4 more wells till end of 2023 or so and than leave the sole risk to Sheffield and TBN. And than if the additional wells are successfull FOG could be sold with the option to join all the successfull wells - gosh, I have never seen someting like that but I can bullshi$ as well LOL]]]

Not happy with the results and just for Mr Beetaloo from Germany, I will not follow your unique and smart advice (which is competely new for me) to sell FOG and buy some pension fund because ... (I won`t tell you here)