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It is super cheap to sell 77.5% of the Beetaloo for just 4.2 million US$ respectively
It is super cheap to sell the ROFR for just 4.2 million US$ (that means for not to spook Mr Shefffield and Mr Riddle with the option that POQ becomes a trouble maker for them and the 77.5% Beetaloo deal)

POQ did not go for the HIGH reward options.

Not for the 100% szenario
Not to get a substantial amount of money for more free carry for the next well (for not being a drouble maker for Sheffield and TBN because he sold the ROFR for a low price)

In all cases
high reward options (as discribed)
and low reward situation (as the situation looks like now for us FOG share holders (but POQ will keep his high paid easy job = it was a good bargain for him IMHO))
we will lose everything in the Beetaloo when we can not achive a commercial test production.

Frackme: "Like I said I've done a lot of deals in my time (not in the oil and gas space) and the golden rule is to take each LOI seriously if you can't sequence them to land together."

Frackme, I know only oil&gas. What you see there: you always go for or have to take risk / high risk and always should go for HIGH reward.
And because of the risk, high risk to lose high amount of money, major oil companies dominate the E&P. If you are a small player and you go for risk and low award you will always be a small player or even go bankrupt. And for the low award you will lose the money for drilling as well when you have bad luck and drill a duster only . In both cases i.e. low reward and high reward, you always will lose the money for exploration and drilling when you drill a duster. This is for the classical exploration, drilling situation.

Some oil companies think they can outsmart such a situation. They say we invest only when there is 100% oil, gas. Such a strategy is possible, but when there is commercial oil, gas the price is higher (and thats the reason FOG is waiting for a commercial production test to get a higher price). Very seldom these risk averse oil companies have the guts to invest when the oil price is at minus 37 $/bbl. And thats the reason this outsmarting strategy does not work very often.

I did not join the conference this morning
But I am dissapointed.
Obviously POQ did not have a prepared contigency plan, buyer for the beetaloo. Therefore he was not able to present a partner within 30 days to go for the big price the 100%. With this deal TBN will have taken the 77,5% of the Beetaloo for a song. Congratulation to Mr Riddle. Congratulation to Mr Sheffield who is going to implement his own concept for the Beetaloo. Shame on FOG and POQ who were not prepared and surprised.
Obviously POQ did not present himself as trouble maker for TBN and Mr Sheffield. Because outherwhise FOG would have got a bigger amount of free carry for the next wells. Shame on POQ for not getting more money for FOG`s ROFR.

In my opinion a super outcome for Mr Sheffield only, not for FOG,respectively POQ. I think Mr Sheffield is the shark and Mr POQ with FOG is a toothless passive pilot fish only.

I wonder that it is not the case that we as share holder are not asked to vote for the passive or for the go big option???

Obviously Mr Sheffield did not even need to invite Mr POQ for a breakfast, because POQ was not able to prepare a bargain situation within the 30 days, that would have ended in a better deal for us FOG share holders. POQ even did not want to take the risk to go for the 100% Beetaloo option with the high price, the high risk but the real very very high reward worldclass 140 TCF scenario. Such a deal would have impressed me and in this case FOG and POQ would have been in the world wide headlines.

For me there was a big chance at the beginning already that Mr Sheffield will be the winner as we see now but I am dissapointed that POQ was not able to get more money for a bigger free carry in the Beetaloo - not the result I would have expected from such a sharp negotiator and CEO in Ireland, as he is discribed here on the forum.

The only good point: we do not have ORG as operator anymore. Instead we have Mr Sheffield who hopefully will bring the best technical know how and more texas style operations to the Beetaloo. Org had the advantage that they were good in stake holder management (politician, indigenous, farmers , Lock the Gate, etc) in the Beetaloo. I hope the Australians working for Mr Sheffield in Australia at TBN do not make too many mistakes with this topic.

At the end of the day in my opinion the situation of FOG in the Beetaloo did not become worse or substantial better (because we are not carried for another substantial amount of money, nor did POQ go for the real big price, the 100% Beetaloo).

I would say that FOG will not put more effort into the Beetaloo when TBN is the operator, compared to the effort when ORG was the operator. In the new situation we even have the guarantee that Mr Sheffield will kick the TBN employees and we can be sure he does not want to lose his money with his FOG share neither.

I hope that Mr Sheffield can see the big picture for South Africa as well and keeps kicking Mr POQ to become active in South Africa finaly.

HardRockFracer
I am not any more a specialist for oil based muds. But I know that the mud companies offer since many decades oil based muds that is called synthetic i.e methan molecules are used to design the molecules for such a synthetic oil based mud. And in such a case you could get an oil based mud without BTX.
Some years ago I was at a conference where the Qataris together with Shell fueled an Audi with synthetic diesel made from methan molecules only.
Of course the mud bill will be lower with a water based mud and I know only one well where napalm was used for hydraulic fracturing. But I have seen wells using a better performing oil based mud reducing the whole well costs as well.

copied from HC TBN forum, as TBN shareholders see the situation:

It's difficult to foresee FO:
1. Being prepared to operate
2. Being prepared to agree to a gas supply agreement given 1
3. Having done nothing to push the asset forward, and suddenly being simultaneously capable and taking action.
4. Being totally unaware this was coming.
5. Tamboran announcing this deal if a threat of Origin executing ROFR was real
6. Tamboran not structuring the deal in a fashion that makes it virtually impossible for FO to exercise ROFR

yes the Beetaloo resource is massive
with 3 TCF you can feed one LNG train easily and here we dream from more than 100TCF
Will know soon if FOG gets 100% again or follows the strategy with less ambitions

2 new research reports from and about TBN
https://www.tamboran.com/research-reports/?agreed

I think this is my favorite option too as longknife has written: Most likely I see a deal being made w Tamboran where they need to carry us farther down the line or we bring in a JV partner (similar to what we did w origin) and get carried further down the line!

And because of short notice I think retail would not get invited to the capital raising and cheap new shares

Thank you for the replies.
In 2014 Fog farmed out to be carried for a 200 million $ 9 well work programm which was increased to 263 million $ in 2020 and Fog reduced the Beetaloo share from 100 to 22,5%.

One more billion new shares now to get the 77,5% back from Org minus 5,5% royality in the future would not sound like a very attractive deal with Org since 2014 for me when you compare not just the costs coverd by Org and see the delivered results for Fog from Org since 2014.

Only the perhaps real big size of perhaps 147 TCF could justify 2 billion Fog shares. If in 2014 Fog would have decided to operate the Beetaloo 100% for farming down after commercial production tests to get the best price, we would have 2 billion shares today as well from dilution , I guess - but without 5.5% royality for Org and perhaps with better production test rate results?

In the case FOG is going to buy the 77.5% Beetaaloo share from Org, we can expect FOG is going to raise capital and we will see new shares and massive dilution. Has anybody an idea for the price of new FOG shares? What do you think. Will the CR offered dirt cheap to some sophisticated investors and crony capital only or will we as long timers get an offer and chance as well?
Because of the expected dilution in this scenrio and the lack of any operational experience, nor any active relationship with australian stake holders because FOG prefered to be the passive joint venture partner I am not sure if the buying of the 77.5% is the best option.
What`s the difference for us longtime holders. In the one scenario TBN/Sheffield steal the 77.5% share for a song and in the other scenario sophisticated investors and crony capital steal the 77.5% share for a song as well. Or do you realy think POQ is working on a beneficial concept for us retail investors?

the geology has not changed since these days

Beetaloo
If it is as you say:
"if I am not mistaken, a preemptor has the option to enter into a valid purchase agreement on the same terms. Thus, the question about the subsequent $1 increase is moot."
Than it is a good idea to go Sole risk. But as nobody offered a better bid to Org it can become a long 100% waiting Game again. On the other Hand I would be surprised if Mr Sheffield gives up easily?

I am afraid we are cought in a catch 22 situation.
When I mentioned that Sheffield could invite POQ to a breakfast the answer was that POQ would not do it for a pancake. But I think this is the most cost effective solution for Sheffield. Give POQ 10 million $ and this is still cheaper than anything else for him.

But I would love to hear if POQ and his cooperating FOG shareholders have prepared a coup in the meantime with better results for the value and price of the FOG shares.

Mr Stoneburner`s quote (annual report TBN) who is hunting 147 TCF

"Financial year 2023 is already shaping
up to be a transformational year for
the Company. In September 2022, we
announced the acquisition of Origin
Energy’s operated Beetaloo Basin
acreage. This transaction, which is
expected to be completed by the
end of October 2022, will make
Tamboran the leading acreage holder
and operator in the Beetaloo, with 1.9
million acres and approximately 147
TCF of net prospective gas resources."

Some got the hope that STO could be a white knight for FOG. But why should STO buy now ORG`s 77% for a higher price when they had already in the past a chance to do a deal with ORG and competing with TBN/Sheffield? I would be surprised if STO becomes active.

Since how many months we have read that Org plans to sell the Beetaloo? If POQ would have prepared a "counterattack" I think we would have seen already a presentation. Very seldom that a major oil company does the DD and farmin for an asset like the Bettaloo at such a stage within just 30 minus x days. I would be suprised if a major oil company becomes active.

Thw swiss guy who has sold FOG shares recently? I would be surprised if he would become active .

The russian billionair? not allowed

Another unknown billionaire like Mr Sheffield or an irish contact or an flexible independent oil company? Obviously no signed agreements till today. Perhaps somebody could explain: What if FOG sends an offer to ORG till end of October. But TBN/Sheffield send a new offer to ORG on 1st of november, which is 1 $ higher than FOG`s offer. Has FOG lost everything or would ORG not be allowed to accept a new 1st of Nov offer from TBN/Shefield?

IMHO I think the only realistic point POQ could make: offer Mr Sheffield a deal that FOG does not prepare a counter offer for Org`s share and for the good will you get carried for one more well or something like this and I still would not rule out that the whole problem will be solved by Sheffield with a golden handshake for POQ...?

WeWa, one time sombody can write a nice case study ;-)

I use https://duckduckgo.com/ as browser

Hess had no more motivations to stay in the Beetaloo and it was for them okay to give it up. In those days Hess, together with Exxon were discovering their elephant oil fields in Guyana and of course Hess was concentrating on and allocating resources and funds for this conventional world class new oil basin. I think a plus point for POQ was because he grabbed 100 % of the Beetaloo so fast and hard that nobody else had a chance to think about making Hess a competitve offer. But you do no have to be the world`s hardes pokerplayer to convince Hess to give up the Beetaloo in those days.

Org is motivated to give up upstream. But it will be a little bit harder to convince Org to give up the Beetaloo because Org as utility company is interested and motivated to get some gas from the Beetaloo. I think buying the Beetaloo from Org is a harder negotiation job than getting the Beetaloo back from Hess.

And I think it will be a much harder negotiation job to thwart the motivations of the Texas oil and gas billionair Mr Sheffield with his codriver TBN (which is not just Mr Riddle but some well connected and successfull wealthy australian businessmen with oil and gas experience in Australia).

But fingers crossed that Mr POQ has got this negotiation skills and success to maximises the value of Fog`s Beetaloo share with the best possible deal.