If there is a big flare, I would expect a rising share price and some discussions down under too.
https://hotcopper.com.au/asx/org/
The cost to produce the oil are around 3 $/bbl. But till the oil is sold there are other costs that sum up to 35 $/bbl.
The low production cost are great and show that we have a great oil field there. But the other costs of around 32 $/bbl are a scandal. The scandalous other costs of 32 $/bbl are the reason GKP is doomed. Paying some Peshmerga for security cannot be the only reason for such high costs.
For me this RNS would be better specified if Fog would have added the words 500 bbl "broken fracfluid" or 500 bbl " flow back" per day. .... instead of
.... with the well currently flowing back at a rate of approximately 500 bbl/d with minor gas breakthroughs observed to date ...
But on the other hand he has written the well is "flowing back" and the deduction of this wording is that they have 500 bbl flow back per day... and not condensate! The condensate was a wrong interpretation of the words.
At this stage I can tell you this is absolutely okay (I have done more than on job like this at the well site myself, planning and execution) and it is good news , especially because they have seen some gas bubbles or even gas slugs. At this stage the well cannot give us the information how much gas we have or if we have hydrocarbon condensate. To me the RNS seems correct after reading it a second time this evening and Fog should not be blamed . I still like this RNS at this stage.
Yes, and the race started already many years ago. Here you can read the preliminary results from 2015. https://www.hartenergy.com/exclusives/taking-bite-out-big-mac-28082
"Tamboran, backed by two huge US funds, is heading for an ASX sharemarket listing early next year, either through an IPO of up to $195 million or a reverse takeover of a listed junior. It is one of several players working – amid opposition from environmental groups – to firm up a potentially huge gas resource in the NT that could prove to be Australia's answer to the US "shale gale". The explorer, which holds 25 per cent of the exploration venture with Santos, is also backed by Rich Lister Paul Fudge, who made billions from the sale of coal seam gas acreage during Queensland's CSG boom."
How will make more money and faster in the Beetaloo? Paul Fudge with Tamboran or the Fog team?
Perhaps somebody could copy the foto from the Australian Financial Review?
The foto shows the flare and it could be the 2.3 MM cft/d rate. If somebody else could get a foto from our Fog test well we could compare the size of the flares to get an idea of the potential?
Mr Riddle said the better than expected results from Tanumbirini-1 augured well for a low number of wells to be required for a commercial project, reducing costs.
"That's where the productivity of the Beetaloo really differentiates itself versus other areas of Australia: it's big, it's highly productive and it can solve these shortfalls with just a handful of wells," he said.
!!!!! "This is why I believe this is the hottest play on the planet ... definitely within the OECD countries." !!!!!
We as Fog oldtimer we know and hope that this dream becomes the reality since a decade and bet our money on that bird. "Within the western world, the OECD" and that should be the argument that Fog could ask for a higher strategic price. Outside of the US there is the Vaca Muerta for example , another very interesting shale gas/ oil play. But Argentinia is ripping of the oil companies, changing the rules, forcing the oil companies to sell the produced hydrocarbons for the domestic market at a lower price than the international oilprice (means for the oil companies: suddenly the input for their business case is wrong). I think it was Chevron that has written in their contract with the Argentinian government that if they go to court the court will be in NY. And Argentina is desperate since 1920 . Once they were one of the richest countries and today their state owned plane is confiscated when it lands on the wrong airport because nowadays they do or cannot not pay back their bonds . As a result they desperately try to get more money from investors by changing the rules. Compared to Argentina , Australia reduced the political risks since the Australian politicians support the positive outcome of the moratorium in NT and overrule the green lock the gate minions. Wasn t it money from Qatar for example that sponsored one of the shale gas critical Hollywood films, when it became clear that the US is not going to build 10, 15 LNG import harbours for LNG (from Qatar) after the US had this new gas production success with shale gas and did not need to import any LNG anymore. The buyer of Fog should understand that with the Beeteloo he gets an asset with gas, condensate and with the stability of the rules in Australia. Especially when I see the prices paid for shale gas/ oil take overs in the US recently (Chevron, Pioneer, Devon , Conoco etc) I start to wear my rose tinted glasses again.
I observed the same pattern as long knive . I even tried it once more and had a order higher than the ask(!) but was not served. Does not look like an effective market neither . Anyway the war will be won or lost with the measured flowrates of gas and hydrocarbon condensate at the wellhead.
Gosh, what happened to the share price this evening. Did they have a breakdown at the flare and some australian cowboys in the neighborhood sold their Fog shares because they do not see the burning flare anymore? ;-)
Or do we get more saltwater than hydrocarbons during testing?
Come on Fog, tell Org that we need some infos, now.
In my opinion the Beetaloo is too big for Org or a new Org+Fog company to digest this unconventional shale, condensate, gas field, because you will need very deep pockets to drill, stimulate thousands of wells and to transport the gas and condensate to Darwin for export. The financing of Capex and Opex will sum up to many billion dollars before you can earn serious money.. The big advantage for the buyer. After the first wells the Beetaloo will be derisked . That means the investor(s) will not have to pay for expensive, risky exploration anymore, because the Beetaloo is becoming a development play with proved reserves and resources with the current drilling and the next wells to be drilled and tested.
I think the owners of the LNG export facilities in Darwin should have the highest motivation to swallow and digest our little bird or another big player like one of the big state owned international companies that plan to import (more) gas from Australia to their own country or a mayor that needs to replace gase reserves for the balance sheet.
Nobody is panicking in EU because of GB. Most EU citizens I know do not care. If GB would be as big as the Chinese market, they would care or if GB would be the only source of some goods they would care. The EU politicians play hard ball with Boris, do not mix it up with not existing panic.
Speculation and reality check for a possible take over price tag for Fog
ConocoPhillips is playing with the idea to buy Concho Resources. If they buy now it could be a clever anticyclic move with the bombed out prices for oil equity.
Value of CXO = 8 billion$ marketcap + 3 billion $ loans
Cxo was founded 1997 respectively 2004. They operate 6.000 wells in the US Permian with a production of 200.000 boe/d. They got 550.00 net acres with 720 million Bbbloe proved reserves plus 8 billion Boe resources and 1.100 employees.
On the other hand Fog got 1.000.000 net acres and 6,6 tcf gross resources and we drilled just some exploration wells without production. Another plus is that gas will have more future than oil but currently you still earn much more money with oil and hydrocarbon condensate.
I am fogging tired after waiting about 10 years but selling this Fog now will not monetize 4 or 10 billions, except somebody is willing to pay a highly long term strategic price in my opinion. Perhaps in about 10 years the Fog asset in Australia will have a value of 10 billions after successfully drilling and fracking thousands of wells in the Beetaloo?
Again the neighbors : from GARY SHIPWAY, NT News|October 15, 2020 10:30pm
Energy and Emissions Reduction Minister Angus Taylor has flown into Darwin and will visit Empire Energy’s test drilling program at its Carpentaria-1 site in the Beetaloo Basin tomorrow.“The Beetaloo Basin is a world-class resource that has the potential to drive significant development in the Top End to create local jobs and help Australia remain a world leader in gas,” Minister Taylor said.“The government’s Strategic Basin Plans will accelerate this development, driving investment and job creation in our regional and Indigenous communities as we recover from COVID-19.“The Beetaloo Basin has the potential to supply more gas to Australian homes and manufacturers, helping to increase competition and drive down gas prices across the market. This will mean more Australian gas is working for all Australians.”Beetaloo was chosen as the first location for the first Strategic Basin Plan to capitalise on industry momentum and to build on existing government initiatives in that region.??
When I read such articles, the gold rush and shale gas hype in Poland, perhaps10 years ago comes into my mind. More than 50 concession were sniffed in by big and small oil companies and polish politicians were parroting the venturos visions from some geologists . But after the first wells were drilled and tested, the polish party ended with a terrible hang over because the rates were disappointing and most of the oil companies gave up. Even 4 mmscfpd were not good enough https://mobile.twitter.com/SanLeonEnergy/status/570487246249459713/photo/1.
Fingers crossed that this time it is different and that we hit the jackpot and end up at one big ****-up party after this bird was finally sold after such a long waiting time.
Recently Chevron bought Nobel Energy for 5 billion $ plus 6, 8 billion $ loans.
My feeling is 3, 4 billions could be the average pocket money that majors could risk for any acquisition in these dodgy days.
Perhaps one of the the national oil and gas companies could come up with a higher price for strategic reasons.