Member Info for Oleo

Yes, R got lost

Why has Energen got an onshore petroleum production right in South Africa and Fog not, repectively why is Fog not able to monetize the Karoo in South Africa.

and thats the reason POQ should become more proactive and try to monetize Fog`s SA asset as well.
https://www.news24.com/fin24/economy/ramaphosa-give-sa-space-to-extract-oil-gas-as-it-transitions-to-clean-energy-20220510

At least Tower informed that we do not have the worst scenario dooms day on 11th of May 2022.
The second problem is the farm in money from nigerian Beluga. Here Tower is working on contigency plan number 3 already.

Tower has difficulties to deliver and they are in an environment with difficult boundary conditions. We will see if Tower can deliver this time.

Perhaps Org does not tell anything about the planned seismic to the share holders. But I am sure that Org will tell about the progress of the planned seismic to all other stake holders like landowner, aborigins, local newspapers, local politicians and so on. And I would expect to read some news here: https://originbeetaloo.com.au/about/ And I would no be surprised if we hear about the seismic from our green friends like the Lock the Gate groupe.

South Africa has changed.
FOG has to become more proactive in South Africa and to monetize the Karoo asset as well.
https://twitter.com/YeyToTheNas/status/1520100398756937729?cxt=HBwWgoCyrcjQvZgqAAAA&cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjcw%3D%3D&refsrc=email

2.5-3.0 £/share :-)

The long term burning flare is a very good hint.

How could it be interpreted from der petroleum / reservoir engineering perspective:
1) the drainage area is big, otherwise the flare would become smaller
2) the permeability is good enough, the reservoir feeds enough gas into the hydraulic fractured area to ensure a sustaining gas flow otherwise the flare would become smaller
3) the concept and design of the stimulation treatment, fracture is good (no damage, no fines migration etc.), otherwise the flare would become smaller
4) the pressure support is good, otherwise the flare would become smaller
5) the water saturation and relative permeabilities are acceptable, otherwise we would see a gas flow chocking waterblock or otherwise the water would even kill the well and the flare would become smaller

This flare hint supports that the gas volume is big, that the gas rate is there together with the pressure, effective porosity and permeability. At the moment I see no red flag and I am very optimistic.

The high gas price should be a game changer for the talks for selling Fog as well. In 2020, when oil and gas price went down, it would have been the best chance for the buyer to buy Fog with a low bid offer. With todays record, all time high gas prices in EU, US etc, record all time high international and especially Australian LNG prices, we have all arguments to justify a share price above 1 Pound or even an all time high price per Fog share for a take over.

The greenies are supporting Gas but do not know if it is relevant for Fog as well (got the text from another share forum):

Well did you hear Adam Vance from the Greens tonight 7:30 report ABC - mentioned Lib's & Labour plan to open 114 Coal & Gas developments, well does anyone know who/where the 114 sites will be?

is there a definitive list available?

Where does BLU fit into these 114?

We are getting better boundary conditions for gas in South Africa
Falcon and POQ should be more proactive in South Africa as well

https://www.upstreamonline.com/field-development/south-africa-government-takes-stake-in-indigenous-gas-field/2-1-1196202

If they had a real liquid loading problem and the well killed itself before the workover, I would say yes.

If the old tubing showed some liquid production before we had the work over, I would say be careful and do not get dissapointed. The production rate with a smaller tubing will not be increased, it can be even smaller because of more friction/pressure loss, but you should get a more stabilized gas and liquid production rate. Hopefully this produced liquid is condensed hydrocarbon and not salty reservoir water.

https://channel.royalcast.com/sparebank1markets/#!/sparebank1markets/20220303_1

You need an email adress to watch this video with presentations.
Kurdistan starts at 2:26

Tlws act like losers
https://www.upstreamonline.com/opinion/namibia-basks-in-glow-from-venus/2-1-1177318

Russia is a very big cluster risk for Wintershall (north stream and most of the production is in Russia)
Perhaps Wintershall is interested in the Beetaloo?

Yes, EUs strategy for energy security is in deep shi§§ and Ukrains are suffering

SNM is going to buy Sarsang from Total and Lukas Lundin said SNM will be sold or merged. Could GKP be a possible partner for the Lundins?
SHAMARAN KAN SLJAS ELLER FUSIONERAS ENL LUKAS LUNDIN DI.SE (Direkt) 2022-02-18 09:21 STOCKHOLM (Nyhetsbyrn Direkt) Lukas Lundin

SLB, HAL, BHI and some others are the best oil field service companies.
All oil companies, small ones like Fog, big ones like Exxon or Aramco , all depend on oil field service companies and their special know how and unique technologies. But the service engineer often deals with a small piece of very special know how "only" and the personell from the oil company has to put this pieces together for the whole picture.
I agree and I beliefe that Org is a good and very experienced company for coal bed methan (CBM).
I beliefe and I am almost sure that SLB made a very good job for the production logging , including the log interpretation, which you can get from SLB as well.

But for SLBs estimates (I ask, has SLB really done this or was it just a number from a chat in the logging truck during coffee breake?) I would say: If the SLB engineer is an engineer who has worked mainly in Australia or in conventional fields as logging engineer for example I would be cautious concerning this estimation.

If ORG flew in an experienced SLB engineer from the US, who is an expert for the production performance of horizontal shale gas & oil wells , presenting a comprehensible model, calculation, simulation I would start to buy the 5 mill cft/d per 1,000 m.

To be clear: I am complaining how Org and Fog manage this Beetaloo project (at least for the part I can see) because this is an additional risk for us investors. I still have the hope, see the chance (but be carefull, I often have the behavior to ride the pony till it is dead) that one day we will or can hit the sweet spot of the Beetaloo with the right well, the best completion and the right fracking recipe. As the guys from the US from Pioneer I have the hope that the Beetaloo can become one of the first shale gas success stories outside of the US in a Western country.

But the water saturation values in combination with the reservoir water proofed with a chemical analysis (this should be a hard fact) during the first production still make me a little bit nervous (do they have relative perm curves, an idea about the interfacial tension, and combined this with pore throat size and Sw for a realistic cut off?)

Longknive,

I have sent no mail to Fog.

This fivefold is bullshi# because:
When you have a more or less horizontal hole section, you have the biggest pressure difference (delta p) at the heel. At the toe of the horizontal section you have the smallest delta p. So, in the case you have a perfect homogeneous reservoir you will get q= x cft/ d from the 200 m heel section. The law of physics will teach you that you will get q = ( x minus y ) cft/d from the toe section.
FOG&ORG could argue that this 5fold works out because the geophysical logs show a much better porosity and permeability in the toe section and this is the reason that you have no (minus y ) cft/d from the toe section.
But even this possible argument I would not buy from them. It could work out in the case you have dry gas. But Fog&Org reported that we got liquids (frac fluid, condensed water, condensed hydrocarbons, reservoir water). In such a case the delta p for the heel and the toe is even more severe.
If you have, if you expect fluids I even question if it is the right strategy to drill 2.000 m horizontal sections and I am sceptical
ONnly if you have more or less "dry" gas, I would say it is a good idea to drill long horizontal, 2.000 m sections for a better production rate.

And Org, Fog delivered crooked holes (= drilled the horizontal wall path upwards with dog legs) = bad

Because it is technical, geological difficult it took so many years for little steps forwards in the Beetaloo. Org and Fog should hire experienced shale gas, oil personnel to prevent failures like damaged casings, strange well pathes, not good planned and executed lifting jobs, and calculations of normalization I do not understand how it could work out

Yes, in this case I am just an armchair pet eng with limited infos and data, but with the available info and data I come to the conclusion as written here.

... ( the price of this mitigation strategy: I was in meetings where we decided to drill to, into the geological fault to hit natural fractures for a better production rate.)

Still the normalization calculation is untrustworthy IMO. The trustworthy part is the Schlumberger production log with the production rate from the first 200 meters . But it is untrustworthy and too simplified to say and then we have a fivefold production per 1,000 m horizontal section because physics and heterogeneity of geology work against this conclusion.

Altogether for my own technical learning curve interesting but not so good for my financial investment here. We need a sustaining commercial production rate ASAP, or you can buy Fog shares at a very low level again. And hopefully the high water saturation values are not the explanation for the next excuse.

@darnit
Is a very interesting article for me. 25 years ago I did not waste time, reading chinese petroleum engineering papers. But that has changed and I will copy this Chinese paper for my own paper collection.

@805
"It was explained as someone stepping on a hose" I think POQ is meaning that the negative effect of a deformed, collapsed casing is comparable to a situation when someone steps on a hose.

@H2
As you, I did not see the reactivated fault as main problem from a geological perspective as well, because the Beetaloo is very old and I expect stabilized, not complex, and the published geological interpretations do not show big and/ or many tectonic faults ( far away from a situation as you see in the Groningen gas field, but perhaps closer to the situation you had when Cuadrilla had their problems in England)

After reading the Chinese paper I want to congratulate (this is sarcastic) Org and Fog to a 100 % failure rate for deformed casings. You beat Argentina, China and the US :-(

The first mistake can be done when a casing is selected. A too cheap casing is bought with too small wall thickness, wrong material, too much ovality. The second mistake can be done when the quality control was lazy or when the casing was damaged before running the casing into the hole. The third mistake can be done whe7n the casing is damaged during running it into the well (because of a dog leg, so severe that you reach the plastic deformation of the casing)
But it was communicated that it was the fault of the geological fault and it can be explained with the Chinese paper with the link from Darnit. I assume that if the diameter restriction was there already before pumping the frac the operator would have had troubles to install the plugs (and this was not reported) But perhaps mistakes 1,2, 3 in combination with a bad cement job (which is always difficult in horizontal wells) as mistake 4 increased the risk of a casing deformation (and I assume that the liner was cemented because I did not check the cementing plan in the public available infos for the wells.
But POQ offered the geological fault as explanation for the casing deformation and I would explain and interpret the situation with my own words like this now:
Obviously the stability of the geological faults is dodgy in the Beetaloo at potential reservoir depth. When the frac fluid is pumped into the formation it can enter such a geological fault, causing a geological shear slip. Already a 7-10 mm shear slip creates a shear compression stress on the cement and casing. End of the story: the casing can be damaged, the inner diameter gets reduced and finaly the casing is collapsed (as if somebody stepped on a water hose). And this situation is comprehensible for me now. It explains why they want to spend money for a seismic as well - to map for avoiding the geological faults ( the price of this mitigation strategy: I was in meetings where we decided to drill to, into the geological f