Member Info for Oleo

There are some things Org is doing I like.
But sometimes Org shows actions, you do not see in the oil patch usually and that drives me mad. Like perforate, start production, stop the work, come back and start again, stop, start again and the years are gone. Oil companies are proud to manage drilling in the tundra or in the desert or in 3.000 m water depth 24/7. And in Australia, they cannot manage operations for 365 days? Yes, I know the nasty dirt roads in the outback during rain myself, but hay, that should not stop a real oil company. Bring in one of the big Hoover crafts from GB and use it as a shuttle between highway and drilling location or what ever ...
Or the hints that they got the Sw and cut off wrong perhaps - okay, other company get this wrong too, sometimes. But you are not very popular anymore when your log, your interpretation showed reservoir water during testing.

The 2021 work programme is expected to include the following:

Resume clean-up operations of Kyalla 117 N2-1H ST2 (“ Kyalla 117 ”) and commence an extended production test (“ EPT ”)
Drill Velkerri 76 S2-1 vertical well (“ Velkerri 76 ”)
Perform a production test at Amungee NW 1H

Drilling one onshore well, some testing and intervention? There could be done much more within 1 year. Even a tiny company with small headcount as Fog alone could manage this program itself.

Perhaps this Mr Close moved from Org to Sto after he realised the risk/ possibility that he drilled into the water??? No idea I am speculating. But why should you do this move when Fog+Org got the filet of the Beetaloo?

You earn the costs with the gas but the big $ will be earned with the hydrocarbon condensate. And that's the reason that the Org/Fog asset is the filet, the sweet spot of the Beetaloo - as long as this vision is not wrong.

Poods, you are right, when we talk about conventional O&G exploration.
But this workflow for shale gas, oil is not so critical . The sweet spot (=best h,k with moveable hydrocarbon) has to be identified and the optimum recipe for hydraulic fracturing has to be developed for commercial production. Shale gas, oil often use the trial, error approach just by drilling more wells to get a learning curve. I would be surprised positively if you could find the sweetest spot with the seismic in the Beetaloo after Fog kept the area which they think is the sweet spot already. Rather I would expect to see the learning curve getting better with a higher number of wells.

If you got too much oil you do not need to work.

Just in case they ran out of ideas in Ireland for the SA asset:

Offer Shell a farmin
Offer Sasol a farmin (homeboy)
Get in contact with shale gas billionairs in the US for a farmin, (who are keen to earn more billions)
Offer Total a farmin (Total is drilling in SA)
Offer any other big oil company, that could be interested a farmin
Talk to politicians about possibilities to generate electricity with our gas in SA
Talk with SA utility companies to switch from coal to our gas for electricity generation, offer them a farmin
...?

Thumb up for Poods
Parallel to the Beetaloo I would like to see some progress in South Africa too and now.

"Oleo, a quick Google factsearch just proved you are full of ****, according to Reuters:Of the 39.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil imported by seaborne methods in 2020, 1.74 million bpd went through the Suez Canal, according to tanker tracking firm Kpler."

Scrodingerscat, do you think 1.74 milllion bpd passing the Suez canal is significant, in relation to about 100 million bpd production or consumption worldwide or 98-99 % of the crude oil not passing the Suez canal?

The oil tankers do not use the Suez because they are too big. Perhaps some smaller tankers with refined hydrocarbon products are in the traffic jam.
A jammed Suez could reduce the oil price a little bit because some parts of the economy could be slowed down because of problems with the delayed supply chain.

Or could say.
If you want to answer qualitative or quantitative:
- Perf is producing gas or not , a distributed temperature sensing with an optical fiber or a DHV was often good enough for me.
- If you want to answer this frac stage number x produces 23,567% of the whole gas production from the well it will take longer ...

First you have to be sure the completed borehole is clean and has no restriction. If "yes", you can do the next step, if "no" you need extra time&money for preparation like a clean out or whatever is needed.

For the next step it depends how much money Origin plans to spend on logging.

A fast, cheap and dirty concept: just run the temperature log to see which parts produce gas.

A more sophisticated concept: T, spinner, density etc.

Personally I like to use down hole videos (DHV).

But especially when you got small gas and fluid rates, multiphase flow (gas, hydrocarbon condensate, water, perhaps emulsion) and many up and downs in the horizontal section, interpretation can become very tricky.

What I mean if you do not have any problems and a KISS concept as DHV, within 2,3 days (with rigging up and down) the job can be done. If you have bad luck and a concept with higher complexity , some weeks (including final interpretation of the logs).

Ok, now I understand. They say, the casing (or production liner?) is deformed between frac stage 7 and 8
Yes, this can be a problem. For example: If the casing is completly collapsed, zero gas flow would be possible. If the casing is just a little bit deformed, that shouldn't cause a big flow restriction.
But, how do they know it is a casing deformation?
If you have not invested in borehole measurements you do not know much. Perhaps they ran a simple caliper or a lead impression with "on-board tools"? But a caliper only tells you that you have a diameter reduction. Can be a liner or casing damage/deformation but you cannot be sure. Can be anything else, causing a diameter reduction, restriction or even a lock up, hold up. To be sure you need more sophisticated tools and logs. Did we ever get the info that they ran a down hole camera or sophisticated logs with CT or a well tractor in this hole? I do not remember.
After you understood the diameter restriction you will see if this hold up can be removed, repaired or not, or if you lost in the worst case, frac stage 1 to 7. And after that step you can think about production logging tools to measure the production contribution of every frac stage.

Do they concider to re-frac the not performing frac stages?

Wood Mac says: Looking further out, we (Australia) need to see exceptional exploration results if significant investment is to be made in the Beetaloo in the next five years. https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/australias-gas-conundrum/

I bought Tlw shares because I had the hope for the turn around.
Unfortunately happy is right with some of his critical points but I am not sure , if this is enough that the share price goes down again.
Another point from Rahul Dhir I do not like: on the one hand he says Tlw is producing a world class asset. On the other hand he plans to drill many water injection wells to keep the oil production rate up. This does not fit together for me. If you have a "wordclass" oilfield you do not have to spend so much money for so many injection wells. My interpretation would be that the reservoirs has many, not connected compartments, a not active not expanding, natural aquifer ... = not worldclass.

ExxonMobil follows a geological trend successfully and discovers one oilfield after the other.
Tullow does not understand this Guyana/Surinam trend.

- if the or any condensate gas test production rate could provide the proof for commercial production in Beetaloo. We need more drilling and as many well testing results as possible ASAP.
- if the Karoo is hyped in South Africa https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/South-Africa-Hopes-To-Become-The-Next-Big-Shale-Success-Story.html
it could be the the perfect timing to sell Fog. In such a case Beetaloo and Karoo together should have a higher value /price than 1 £ per share as long as the SA government, as long as the operator in the Beetaloo do not mess up our chance. What are the mitigations Fog is working on to reduce the risks?

Dear NanoDarcy
Here is the text: Operations continue at Kyalla 117
Published on November 25, 2020
Operations continue at the Kyalla 117 well near Daly Waters in the Northern Territory.
The well was successfully fracture stimulated and flowback operations commenced in early October with enough gas to sustain a flare, however extended production testing to assess the quality of the resource requires a measurable gas breakthrough to occur.
Origin General Manager for Beetaloo and Growth Assets, Tracey Boyes said, “Well data collected to date is positive with core analysis indicating mature hydrocarbons and good permeability, and mud logs indicating the presence of liquids-rich gas.

“Our analysis of data from current operations is showing greater pressures in the well than in the reservoir, due to the saline content and density of the flowback fluid.

“It is not unusual in shale plays for the salinity and density of the flowback fluid to increase as salt easily migrates from the surrounding formation.

For the last part I could offer 2 explanations as interpretation (with the limited data, info I got):
a) Do we have salt layers in this formation? If yes, I could explain but I think there are no salt layers, pillows etc.
b) It is not unusual in shale plays for the salinity and density of the flowback fluid to increase as salt easily migrates from the surrounding formation = it is a hint, proof that reservoir water with higher salinity was mobilized, produced!!! (IMHO)
Remember how much water was pumped into the well and went into the fractured "near wellbore area". And most of this broken frackfluid is still in this "near wellborn areas" of this x (15? I don't remember) frac stages. But surprise, we see reservoir water from behind the fractured area after the first backflow trials. That tells me this reservoir water highway is dominant. Must be, could be from the heel section where we have a higher delta p. And it is so dominant that we see water flow instead of higher gas rate flows (compare mobility ratio water/gas).
PS: I would love to see the NMR log with interpretation.
I had the plan to buy more Fog shares but this reservoir water hint was like a cold shower for me. And I think they got the log interpretation, the Sw , Sw cut off, moveable Sw (effective) wrong when they selected this reservoir water highway zone (perhaps natural fractures full of water?) for a frac stage.
In an other release I think Fog said they could shut off reservoir water inflow. But first this is not so easy and second what if they got the Sw interpretation wrong too, for the other stages with less permeability?

New, Oh Snap, just what I needed to read (close to the last person in the World I'd hire to ramrod an E&P venture).

A person who has a proven track record for operations, who understands the geology, the reservoir who has done drilling, completion, hydraulic fracturing, building gathering lines, producing of shale gas, oil reservoirs since many years? Ah, I forgot the softer skills besides physics, chemistry, geology, The talk to the other stake holders as politicians, lock the gate people, farmers etc.? A person who has collected so much experience in doing this jobs him or herself that he or she has developed so much gut instinct that he or she can do good decisions after having talked, discussed with his or her big expert team?

NanoDarcy, do you have an opinion about the water saturation at this well? Org reported that reservoir water was seen during the first test. Spent frac fluid plus reservoir water.
Could be Org got the cut off wrong for Sw. Could be that the milliDarcy section of the horizontal well is full of reservoir water?

I do not complain about the past way of operating.

But starting to lift the well, stopping the operations, starting the lifting again, stopping the test and hopefully starting to lift and do the production test again.

Sorry that does not sound very professional and I do not accept such a behavior on my ship, nor as arm chair engineer, invested in an asset. I will not sell, but I hope that perhaps we get it organized that somebody starts to feel the higher temperature (I do not expect that we could organize it that somebody starts to feel the heat)

RichG
Thank you for the text. For me this is a shilly-shally beating around the bush. Indeed this Orgs are no real oilmen in my opinion.

I think too, that at Org the engineers got a good guts feeling for the desorption pressure in the CBM fields in QL. Derived from the limited infos and data we have got, I am afraid Org has problems to get the logging while drilling interpretation for the reservoir water saturation right (but I admit that this can be difficult if you do this in the Beetaloo Basin for the first time and not on a daily basis ). Hopefully they can apply a learning curve and get the right person for the right job.

I think too, that at Org the engineers got a good guts feeling for the desorption pressure in the CBM fields in QL. Derived from the limited infos and data we have got, I am afraid Org has problems to get the logging while drilling interpretation for the reservoir water saturation right (but I admit that this can be difficult if you do this in the Beetaloo Basin for the first time and not on a daily basis ). Hopefully they can apply a learning curve and get the right person for the right job.