Member Info for Oleo

- The Beetaloo is too big for Org. Org knows that too and here we have the Beetaloo farm down announcement from Org. I was surprised that Org bought such a high percentage from Fog but I assume Org had the plan to earn some easy and quick money by farming down after a successful production test with a big flare. Lemon.

- If we produce water instead of gas, condensate, the numbers for the resources, reserves have to be reduced.

- We need better information, understanding of the water saturation. Perhaps they have to do a reinterpretation of the geophysical logs.

- No activities for months at the well site. Again this could be a risk and this could damage the the reservoir and the fractured area itself. In my opinion we need a coiled tubing unit at the well site now. The oilfield service industry is famous that they work at minus 50 degree C or at plus 50 degree C, in the desert, in the tundra, in the jungle, on the top of high mountains, 3.000 m under water. But they cannot get it managed in the Beetaloo? Come on. There live people at the cattle farm nearby, we are not on the moon. Org is jeopardizing the success of this well and Fog as a minion is not in the driver's seat anymore. Even a sole risk option is difficult for Fog now.

- yes, they need some time to understand the well better. But this does not exclude to keep the well flowing !

- If they need help I could teach them how to lift a well with just using slick line equipment . That means you do not need the coiled tubing unit plus nitrogen unit (3, 4 trucks). One slickline truck is enough. A 4x4 wheeler transporting a small offshore container to the well site. It is ridiculous and I am getting ****ed off when I read the arguments in the Org and Fog announcements for not keeping the well flowing for the next weeks, months and jeopardizing one of the last chances for success.

I really hope somebody reads that in Ireland and starts a new discussion with the operator in Australia.

In the best case the well kicks in in 1,2,3, 4 weeks if you keep it flowing without interruption. If not I would give up too.
In the worst case Org has to refrac the damaged well or to give up the well.

Ultra, we need a new text for your song here, like:

There are not enough gas bubbles
and no condensate in the reservoir water, in the water
Otherwise with bubbles and condensate the density would be lower
And the well would kick in with a big fire tail flare
With a big fire tail flare, fire tail flare ...

But no gusher neither.
For me it is disappointing . I understand that the operator was hoping that they do not need the CT unit to lift the well because they were hoping that they got a gusher. Nope and bad luck for us poor old fog buggers. This well needs nitrogen and some help to keep it flowing. I mean the 500 bbl/d were a hint. A gusher would have delivered thousands of bbl/d but at an early point even a gusher produces 500 bbl/d but it is not the end, more the beginning of the curve. And a gusher would have created a monster flare, which would have been observed by the cattle farmers in the neigherbourhood and would have been seen even on the low resolution satellite photos from deprussky.
Org should have had a CT unit with N2 standby as contingency, that we need now. Because waiting some more weeks can be a risk. It is not good for the reservoir, it is not good for the fractured area to keep the spent frac fluid there because it could create an unwanted damage and skin effect because of aging effects on the used chemicals and of unwanted reactions of the clay in the reservoir. Second I do not like the high salt levels. I assume that we have high salt levels because only high salt levels influence the density of the fluid column creating a higher hydrostatic pressure. The salt could be a possible production problem in the future because of unwanted salt precipitation that has to be cured with more CT jobs for fresh water washes in the future.
My conclusion: no gusher no rocket for the fog shareprice. We need higher, sustaining gas and hydrocarbon condensate rates . They even did not mention a number for achieved gas, condensate, fluid rates. And the hint (for me it is the info about the elevated salt content)that they got already reservoir water in this early stage is not good. It would be very interesting and important if the measured elevated reservoir saturation was measuredat the whole length of the horizontal section or not? What did the log say about the the water saturation in the vertical pilot hole?

Today is another strange FOG day. The oilprice went up to 47 $/bbl, the DJ showed an all time high of 30,000, the share price of other E&G companies went nuts , ORG went up last night in Australia and good old FOG went down in London today. Although only relatively small amounts of shares were traded and still no news from Beetaloo, that is close to become a world class shale gas, condensate producing basin - somehow I am standing perplexed in the November- fog.

With fog and org we are pretty far down the road. After seismic, drilling, hitting the reservoir , logging, perforation, flow back and completion we reduced the risks with every step.
But at the moment the possibilities are not satisfying us because the presented well test results will be good, bad or in between.

Now 220.000 jobs could be created. This number is increasing.
In the meantime I tried dprusskys satellite link once more.
https://soar.earth/?service=WMS&request=GetMap&bbox=14880151.427852381,-1901334.6474886409,14876270.32718108,-1905224.2407215887&description=&time=2020-11-14/2020-11-14/2020-11-14/2020-11-14&layers=TRUE_COLOR_PREVIEW&layerKey=TRUE_COLOR&title=Sentinel%202&image_data=https://services.sentinel-hub.com/ogc/wms/28b4c9f0-28ea-4d19-8bb7-1bfc9f18c9bc?height=7001AMPERSAND1width=14001AMPERSAND1bbox=14884048.826385085,-1901334.6474886409,14876270.32718108,-1905224.24072158871AMPERSAND1service=WMS1AMPERSAND1request=GetMap1AMPERSAND1layers=TRUE_COLOR_PREVIEW1AMPERSAND1format=image%2Fpng1AMPERSAND1transparent=true1AMPERSAND1version=1.1.11AMPERSAND1showlogo=false1AMPERSAND1name=Sentinel-2%20L1C1AMPERSAND1width=1001AMPERSAND1height=1001AMPERSAND1maxcc=1001AMPERSAND1time=2020-11-14/2020-11-14%2F2020-11-14/2020-11-141AMPERSAND1bbox=14880151.427852381,-1901334.6474886409,14876270.32718108,-1905224.24072158871AMPERSAND1crs=EPSG:3857
You can get photos from 4,5 different days in November from the well site. And you can use different types as infrared . I am no specialist for satellite fotos and I cannot discover any positive hint.

Thank you wetwater for the answer.
Permitted to release that data - I assume you know and you are right.
But imagine following situation: in a joint venture you have a small partner from the other end of the world who is a pain in the arse with his questions that do not change the situation at the well site or change the well test result. Furthermore your boss told you we run a tight ship because he is planning and hoping to do a Beetaloo Ferrari big bang surprise presentation for the international market. So you are stingy with infos and data and give this tiny fellow from Ireland only the infos you have to give him because it is written in the joint venture contract.
If it is like this situation, Fogs strategy could be to send a secondee to the well site for venture influencing.

Another question could be: is Mrs. Val Dyer selling bulls? No idea how much money you get for one bull in Australia. Perhaps $ 5.000 ? If yes we should checkout if somebody is buying $ 5.000 parcels of Fog shares LOL.

I think we have a catch-22:

On the one hand Org is a big Australian company but no major. Mr Schubert responsible for the upstream at Org worked previously for a major (Shell). I do not know him but I would not be surprised if he acts like somebody who is still working for a real major. That means, majors do not report every little fart of a well test to the public, even when the managers name was mentioned in an article that called out the Beetaloo as the Ferrari of shale reservoirs one year ago or so.

On the other hand Fog is a tiny company and even a little fart with flammable gas during a well test could make a big difference. So tiny companies tend to report even farts with small volumes to pump the share price.

Here Fog gave the driver seat to the operator who likes to behave like a major and Fog has probably difficulties to publish premature results of this test? Finally we poor buggers here end up with desperate ideas how to find out more about the current well test results.
Do we have a big flare at the test or not, is the flame reddish (means condensate), do we have pressure support, which production rate do we have, do we see hydrocarbons or just reservoir water , are the created fracs performing or do we see a formation damage and skin effect, is the inflow from the reservoir into the fractured zone good enough etc.

Perhaps we could collect some money here and order daily helicopter flights around the well site and they send us photos from the flare there?

Gosh, some of this Brahman cows have better infos than we have now.

Finaly a small piece of info about water saturation.

Just a thought. Was not recently a satelite installed to identify burning forests?

The dark areas could be the water storage and the cutting pit. The whitish spots are containers, and perhaps some stored big bags. The yellowish spot could be perhaps the testing equipment with with flare but I do not think that the burning flame could be seen at daylight.

Pretty cool link, dprussky. Such a foto from tonight could help for investment-decision now.

I would be surprised if you can see a flare at daylight with a low resulution foto. During night I think we could have a chance because the surrounding of our well in the outback is black and dark during the night. The satellite night fotos from N Dakota documented the flaring when the boom started there.

(During night time)

If it is a mighty flare you could be able to see it 20, 30 miles if you are in a flat area and got dry weather. From an elevated position like a mountain or plane much better.

If there is a big flare, I would expect a rising share price and some discussions down under too.
https://hotcopper.com.au/asx/org/

The cost to produce the oil are around 3 $/bbl. But till the oil is sold there are other costs that sum up to 35 $/bbl.

The low production cost are great and show that we have a great oil field there. But the other costs of around 32 $/bbl are a scandal. The scandalous other costs of 32 $/bbl are the reason GKP is doomed. Paying some Peshmerga for security cannot be the only reason for such high costs.