Member Info for Oleo

I like both fotos. The blue colored equipment is the Schlumberger drilling rig and the red colored equipment is the Halliburton hydraulic fracturing equipment. You cannot compare drilling equipment with frac equipment because drilling and fracturing are two complete different jobs.

One concept of shale gas, oil drilling in the US is to organize the drilling, completion, stimulation compared to a assembly line work. This will bring down the costs and will bring up the learning curve in Australia. Not worried about that.

Most important that we see an economical hydrocarbon condensate and gas rate asap, get the pipeline, a good gas, condensate price and to mitigate the non technical risks.

Technically, a horizontal well with 30 or more frac stages can cost in the US 15, 20 million US $ too. The last Origin well was expensive because they had problems with wellbore stability and had to redrill the horizontal section.
There are good engineers and G&Gs in Australia who understand the business. Knowledge transfer should be easy because English is the language in Texas and Australia. Hydraulic fracturing was done in the 1960ies already in Australia.
Correct is too that the distances are a problem for logistics and for the sales pipeline (but there the Australian Government is going to support). A pain in the a$$ are the extra costs for the environmental impact assessment and legall&PR defends against green grandkids of Ludd, whose parents were forced to go to Australia) .

Onshore drilling in Australia is not expensive and no big challanges related to geology like high pressure, high rate, mud losses, very reactive young shales, H2S etc.)
Biggest challange for a Beeteloo well: logistics and how to crack the code (frac ingredients, well orientation, do we have enough moveable hydrocarbons, I still do not like the high water saturation in some of the reports etc.) and the destructive Lock the Gate people.

- first reason for a lower oilprice, influencing TLWs shareprice: some oil from Libya is entering the market again

- second reason for a lower oilprice, influencing TLWs shareprice: second Covid 19 wave wandering around the globe, is creating some panic again, and some regional lock downs

third reason: the new CEO , instead of presenting and highlighting an optimistic, clever plan how to solve the problems he presented , highlighted again the problems that were not new for us but feed shorters. He increased the fear by saying again and again that the situation is bad, really bad. Where is the solution for relieving TLW? I think he missed the chance to highlight the actions for the roadmap to get a better balance sheet.

Seems, TLW is becoming an Indian company? https://www.the-star.co.ke/business/kenya/2020-09-18-tullow-to-cut-jobs-in-kenya-announces-mbogos-exit/ Some years ago I was invested in a small oil company that had a small share of an oil field, operated by an Indian oil company. It became a hopeless mess. No time lines, no budget , planned and promised work packages were not delivered etc. Since then I am sceptical whenever I see an Indian management in the oil patch. Got a better E&P success rate with the Chinese.

Too much petroleum engineering gobbledegook with Indian accent for Dotty? So she hired one more director for the Tlw board
https://www.offshore-energy.biz/tullow-oil-picks-ex-anadarko-man-for-director-role/

https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/200b_australia_lng_boom_waylaid-07-sep-2020-163223-article/

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/middle-east/247649/oryx-kurdistan-hawler-zeg/

Perhaps Empire needs some money from retail shareholders in future, whereas POQ does not need us FOG minions. I assume this makes the difference.

Too good to be true?

If I got the numbers right, SLE got a net production of about 4.000 bbl/d in Nigeria. If the share price would go up to about one pound they would have a market cap of about 400, 500 million Pound. In my opinion that's too high just for 4.000 bbl/d. We would need a production of perhaps 100.000 bbl/d to see a market cap of 0,5 to 1 billion. But we will see because we see crazy volatility these days

Some years ago I saw a good chance that SLE goes bankrupt after the shale gas fever in Europe ended and when the Nigerian jungle fever started for SLE. Fingers crossed that this dark days are over for SLE, hopefully.

How can it be that you need a workforce of 400 !!! to operate just 12 !!! highly productive almost brandnew onshore wells?
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Gulf-Keystone-Petroleum-Slashes-40-Of-Jobs.html
It is a bad, frustrating, depressing process to fire about 50% of the workforce. About 200 people who cannot make their living anymore. And we do not know how many families in the background need the salaries for food etc?
Operating just 12 onshore wells with a staff of about 200 is still over the top in my opinion. It was a management mistake to hire so many.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Iraq-Calls-On-Foreign-Oil-Companies-To-Cut-Production.html

Just from the photo you cannot say if hydraulic fracturing was applied there or not.

For sure you see an area without vegetation and I assume that there was no or almost no vegetation before the first oil well was drilled there and before the first sucker rod pump was installed there.

What you can see from the photo is that the wells got a small spacing. That can be a hint that they have a reservoir with high viscouse oil and/or bad permeabilities or many very small lease owners. And I assume it is an old oil field because nowadays you would plan clusters to concentrate a higher number of deviated wells on one well site, as it is planned in Beeteloo, too.

PS: I am still looking for somebody who can discuss with me the Sw values.

WETWATER

see for example page 80
https://www.bioregionalassessments.gov.au/sites/default/files/gba-bee-stage2-baselineanalysis-final.pdf

To those who sit in the US and Australia.
I am sitting in EU and got two questions and would like to hear your valuation:
1) don't you think that the water saturation is a bit high when you check the numbers?
2) don't you think that Fog got the same risk as the shale oil/gas companies as in the US now. Or what makes the difference when you compare the Permian with the Beeteloo?

Yes, shame on GKP. And the other oil companies of the peer group in N Irak Kurdistan managed to get some money for their produced oil, even SNM. Lemon! What is JF and management going to do to bring GKP in a better position?

We are becoming a famous oil company of the end section. I am afraid this could attract shorters like flies are attracted by bullsh*t.

Even Shamaran from the neighbouring and absolute comparable Atrush oilfield managed to earn some money (at least a symbolic sum) in April:
May 27, 2020
VANCOUVER, May 27, 2020 /CNW/ - ShaMaran Petroleum Corp. (“ShaMaran” or the “Company”) (SNM - TSXV, Nasdaq First North Growth Market) confirms that a payment of $1.4 million ($0.5 million net to the Company) has been received from the Kurdistan Regional Government for Atrush crude oil sales during April 2020. View PDF version
So, what makes the difference between GKP and SNM? The manager? Or what else? The WTI oilprice of minus 37 $/bbl is as ridiculous as this GKP anouncement with the zero payment for GKP in April. What a disgrace. How can it go below the absolute zero point?

From the Santos homepage:
JERA and SK E&S, two LNG companies from Japan and South Korea join Santos in Darwin. Could it be possible that JERA, SK E&S are interested in the Beeteloo too, and not just Inpex?