Member Info for Okehurst1

Thanks T4g

Stand corrected

Boo enjoys 21M web site hits a month

PLT. 6.6M

T4G/SCB does that look correct ?

Https://www.instagram.com/p/CxtMvJOo88x/?igshid=MTc4MmM1YmI2Ng==

Looks that way SCB

23 stores now across MENA, lot of expertise to put this together - below

Massive store in Dubia, 125,000 sq/ft on fashion avenue

https://www.instagram.com/stories/debenhamsmiddleeast/3201158858646157761/

Https://www.instagram.com/reel/Cxs_kltIfue/?igshid=MTc4MmM1YmI2Ng==

Doesn’t appear to be a pop up but an anchored store ?

Whilst we wait for update

Debenhams beauty store … wonder if they roll these out across U.K. cities ?

https://www.instagram.com/reel/Cxssbk-oGpX/?igshid=MTc4MmM1YmI2Ng==

# marketing budget

Mute point

ASOS cost of sales budget is 5.7%

Boo hoo is 10.8%

Obvs ASOS had higher revenue but Boo almost spends the same on marketing expense

Wonder if they will be buying again post results ?

Been a pattern a buying post analyst meetings

# allow £16M debt / legals

They would need £48M from stock

ASOS now sitting higher than the eve of its results this week, no new shorts opened either

Can Boo come in with FCF neutral and retain £79M?

Boo say they have £85M in for Capex - which would include £3M ish for Rev B balance USA distribution unit

Debt / legals maybe £8M

USA set up cost £25M - exceptional’s

£118M cash less £79M

Can they squeeze inventory for £40M with a £200M drop in revenue ? A £20M drop would match like for like to last years then can they squeeze more ?

Could get interesting if they stick to guidance

It’s all in the accounts

Listed as cost and purchased via FCF and booked through capex account

Side note - Quite a feat to nick 30% of Rev B for £18M

Let’s hope Boo can play Goldilocks

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/h-m-blames-warm-weather-060540332.html

Hi C/Man

Good chat

Just on returns they had 5M H2 2022/23 on a straight line basis of 46M items ordered, that’s the guidance they gave analysts at the most recent recorded meeting, guess we can only go with that ?

If the average item sold is £18 with 50% COGS, £9 cost

they had £45M of cash goods H2 swashing around but they nicked £10M on charging for returns

Sheffield automation can handle 150,000 of returns a day with minimum human handling

I am not sure returns will be as big a problem moving forward with Test/ Repeat ironing out manufacturing sizing anomalies

Agree not without risk here but IF the Bod put out a decent set of numbers next week confirming guidance we are set up well

Some crazy data to get our heads around

Next last year had similar revenue to ASOS around £4B

Next 40,000 staff and all the store costs

ASOS 4,000 staff no store cost

Next makes 10% profit margin but it’s on line sales are now 65% and growing, how long before Next is 80/20 on line to store revenue

Point being, being a pure fast fashion play may not be the answer, Debenhams mirroring Next web site offering, Beauty and quality brands like Karen Millen plus incorporating fast fashion looks like it could work ?

Boo have opened a Debenhams Beauty store in London and there are now 23 bricks @ mortar Debenhams stores incorporating 1,250,000 sq/ft in MENA region, maybe Boo evolves the Debenham beauty stores in the U.K. and utilise as a drop off for returns - as an example

Good chat DC

No arguments to your main point below - profit over revenue

I am not a holder of ASOS but looking in it appears to have specific issues it’s working through, £200M plus net debt and £600M of stock it needs to turn to cash

It appears the recent Test /Repeat range is selling well and at a good margin but the £600M of old stock is overhanging the balance sheet, pretty much all ASOS FCF + has to go to repay debt and manage the gap if any on the £600M, what happens if ASOS only sells £400M of the stock at cost ? Big risk in that £600M turning to cash

Boo doesn’t have the same issues, it just needs to complete the USA roll out

We will know next week if PLT, Karen Millen, Debenhams franchise and market place alongside their expanding Beauty division are performing or not ?

If Boo does deliver and confirms guidance to top of the range which was £79M EBITDA it may start to decouple from ASOS as it’s offering and range is diverging away.

Debenhams is the big one to watch for next week but all guess work as it stands today, we need to see the £numbers

T4G generally the II Shorts have to Uber smart to survive, their downside is limitless and they are paying for the carry?

Tbf they have called Boo down all the way from £4 to 30p ?

What’s left in the tank for them from here I guess ?

Risk vs reward stuff ?

Guess only they know their exit plans ?

Goes back to the II Shorts who are the smartest boys in the room

Do they think ASOS is a basket case who can’t repay its £200M debt and won’t budge the £600M old stock ?

Looks to me the new management team are on track, putaside 50% of share Cap table is in the hands of just a few wealthy investors, will they just increase their stake?

The same applies to Boo IF their plan is coming together?

It’s when do the Shorts take their profits knowing deep pockets may continue buying ?

Hi Hex

Not really studied ASOS forecasts or balance sheet only picked up their target of focusing on profit /cash over turnover and they have £200M of net debt ?

Guess ASOS II Shorts have to gauge is there more to go or is their turnaround targeting the above working and will big Mike just pick up more stock ?

Boo’s turn next week of course

Https://www.retail-week.com/fashion/asos-posts-profits-in-line-with-guidance-as-turnaround-strategy-pays-off/7044658.article