Member Info for Okehurst1

It’s not an exact science but handy back of the fag paper

20% up at 68p should see 5M shares purchased if trading runs at the same rate

Some of the 5M will be Quants/ new investors buying in

Long way to go for the Shorts to get out of this one

# fund

Moulding backed the Rev B IPO

Not too sure BOO have the fire power to buy out this one they need to find the USA distribution centres - although they weirdly bought in at 20p before news broke of how bad things are on there

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-9797897/Boohoo-Hut-Group-backing-beauty-Revolution.html

With the £670M of cash, I wonder if THG are gaming out buying Rev Beauty ?

We know THG are pivoting via the Iceland contract

With a clean sheet Audit - heavy investigation - by then all the gremlins will be washed out.

It’s another market for THG plus they then have a USA & U.K. manufacturing plant and additional £200M of annual global revenue

Agree operationally … that’s a whale and half

Steve, why would Mouldy do a deal with LVHM with equity ?

He / THG don’t need the cash ? THG is swimming in it, maybe an Ingenuity link , who knows ? But it would need to be a bumper buy out price to take out THG

Technicals in play now Golden
Shorts / 90% drop from high / money moving back into bombed out tech stocks / recovery 9 months out

Personally I think this is going Private, it’s just what price we get?£2 plus would be brilliant.

Mouldy has to make his move this Q4 , THG will be £1quid at this rate just on technicals, to trump that he needs a mega bid to get the II’s not rolling to sell out

Going to be interesting watching this play out and making $$ in the process

Nice one Oxford

The Quant boys are exasperating the situation for the Shorts as the MM’s need to steady the price and tease out sellers

Lot of stock now in sticky hands

Good post SP

Genuinely no idea how the Shorts close out without a massive print above the Offer

The .5% as a base figure is 7M shares give or take, many are over this level

No market maker will protect them on price

So even if just 1 of them buys 7M shares in one hit - it’s not even possible - and there are 6 hedge funds in this position
there is no way out of this one for them without extreme pain, it’s brutal but fun to watch when your on the other side of the trade

Thinking as much our current market cap - relatively speaking wise - was not that far away from our working capital 48hrs ago ,put aside all the other positive notes from the update

You can see why the Shorts are panicking, no easy way out for them to close when they are all running for the exit same time

Working capital required down

Intensive Capital Investment down

Commodities prices down

Restructuring of Ingenuity to focus on ARPU ( effectively this is the strategy )

£656M in the Bank

£2,5B global revenue , 55% Rest of World , 25% USA , 30% automated sales and growing

The Short Institutions will have poured over THG since Tuesday update, they must be extremely concerned, our market cap is not that much higher than £cash at hand

Kind of slipped under the radar but think it’s interesting that the existing lenders - who knows your business better than your bank ? - have provided a parri passu additional loan

If someone owes the bank £500M and they are worried about getting their money back they don’t normally lend another £156M … and they don’t lend on same terms

The consortium of Banks involved are blue chip, they will see with their own eye the cash flow and work out the margin.

Arguably this is the biggest endorsement that THG is on the right track, you don’t provide £656M to lose your money

‘The key terms of the recently signed incremental £156 million banking facility, provided equally by existing lenders, BNP Paribas, HSBC, and NatWest, include:



-

three-year term;



-

pari passu ranking with the Group's existing term loan B;



-

no additional covenants; and



-

350 bps fixed margin above SONIA.

·



All debt facilities are covenant light, long-dated (Term Loan B, December 2026) with fully fixed and hedged interest costs.

·



Group stock levels are normalising following the recent completion of the global logistics roll-out program, resulting in a steady unwind of the working capital investment made in the previous two years.

Thoughts on IG /CMC

They make their money backing against the punters trade

They had 96% of all trades Long yesterday
They may not have laid off - they say they had 250 to 500 positions in THG

They may have their own issues covering the Longs they offered , no wonder they ain’t taking new Long trades

The higher we go now the more Mouldy may have to pay - if that is his plan

He will have put a premium on the offer

IF … the market has hit the bottom he has to move Q4 in case the price runs away if he is trying to get on cheap

Can’t see an easy way out for the Shorts, it’s serious volume they need and it’s not there , gut feel they took their eye off the ball here

2phevs

I think the same, can’t see how these big II shorts cover without driving the price daily plus we have the sub .5% shorts and is Mouldy & his chums buying in as well ?

The volume isn’t there, the MM’s will be trying everything they can to pull stock in but with so many trying to close it’s not working without budging the price up each slug bought

Who in their right mind would sell into this position, it’s fish on a barrel stuff for us little PI’s watching the II’s rip themselves apart

Looks like ASOS / BOO having their own moment with their shorts as well, market betting this is the bottom

Hi LD

Thanks for correcting me, my eye sight, apologies about that

Ha! It’s even better for us as you rightly point out - think it’s 3 shorts over the 2 days ? Excluding today ? Guess we find out tomorrow

So 57.5M not 54M outstanding before days get added tomorrow ? :-)

So out of the 9.2M shares bought over the last 2 days the known shorts took 6M

54M to go plus the unknown shorts

And he nicked a chunk at 39p in the process

Tbf it does look like a sell but the price held up

Is it 63p the next technical level ?