Member Info for Okehurst1

Steve, are they days of X Rev value gone? And it’s EBITA at best for THG ? Feels that way

IF it’s EBITA it’s £1.20 maybe they squeeze £1.30 on the buy out offer, that’s his offer price - am with you on 10X

Just what’s his next move ? Does he just make it an open offer to the market and goes above the BoD as such and test the II’s and say the world has changed since last June ?

Am riding this one as an offer could come out the blue and it’s gone £1.20 / £1.30

Forget the £1.70 bid off Mouldys best m8 and letter from the Candy boy, the business couldn’t afford the debt, we can all see that know

Mouldy needs Qatar / someone to buy out secondary( us ) they then restructure with primary capital once that’s complete

That has to be his move

Good debate - we ain’t that far away Steve

Would you take the £165M EBITA for 2023 … today if that was possible ?Think I would

If so maybe we look at what the X value is on that ?
What could we expect Qatar to pay - its secondary cash so not going to the business

Am thinking 9 to 10 X 2023 EBITA

Mouldy throws it out there ‘ take it or leave it ‘ these are the numbers , he makes his move Q4 / now before Xmas

Nb put aside the IPO price and how much invested, are we are where we are so to speak on a multiple of 2023 EBITA and
Mouldy game is lower the II’s expectations ?

£160M EBITA would be a good result for next year

Ok final thoughts

So what’s the price the Concert party price their offer at?
at £1.20 it’s £1.7B, we could hit £160M EBITA best case ?

That’s 9X EBITA, is that cheap ?

Just putting it out there that the buy out price may well be at forward 9X to 10X EBITA , can II’s argue it’s worth more than that?

My wish list is much higher but realistically can / will Qatar fund above that level ?

Any opinions?

Point being with all this ….

The price protection cost is already baked in, let’s say we come in with £100M EBITA , their forecast next year is £150M to £160M EBITA IF they can squeeze those extra 200pts gross they talk about due to increased to increase robotics / higher margin Nutrition etc

All down to capex then for Ingenuity, can they slash the £132M which is a big print - I have no idea

Guess it’s measuring the revenue Ingenuity can generate on the extra £132M next year on top of the £197M this year - it’s some £dough been invested into Ingenuity

We should on the growth number staying steady- come in at £150M to £160M EBITA 2023

They have Capex inked in at £132M
Interest is £30M - could be a tad higher
Leases £60M

IF it was possible to strip out a good chunk of the capex we get to cash flow positive - that £132M may well be fixed mind

Focus’s the mind that the cost of Whey dropping helps us

Nb trying to get my head around the £100M to £120M EBITA for this year and does the tailwind of Whey dropping over summer nudges us over the £100M EBITA with head room - all other divisions being equal to what we know

Any views anyone ?

Thanks for sharing Golden

Any ideas on pro rata affect of Euro Whey hitting €750T
and our EBITA, I picked up brokers notes that it adds €35M to to the gross at that level

Any views your side ?

Monty
Ain’t happening, he said it himself on the last conf call
‘ it will expire ‘

Just on the staffing numbers

There was a broker note that they will reduce staff by 25% to 7500 as they produce more automated orders - at 30% automated currently, no idea when the cull comes ?

Same page Steve, agree all points

It’s weird only hearing from a new Chairman of a public company - including interim accounts published and a trading update - via his TR1 RNS purchases and even then it takes him 2 weeks to inform the market

He’s lopped a £few Million in here recently and as you say he’s no mug, these guys have gamed their agenda and are primed to press the button

Steve/S

Fair comment on Capex, turn the tap off there and EBITA becomes pure cash after interest - no tax, depreciation is none cash at point in time

It’s almost as if Mouldy is scaring us to keep the share price low to accumulate on the cheap - it worked with SoftBank

Steve, can’t be valued at any less than £zero

They are focusing on ‘Whales ‘ in their speak in the sectors they have identified - they have 8 out of 20 in target range

Then it’s all about ARPU, personally I like the strategy

Oxford, fair comment

I agree, what we say doesn’t move this share price, the big II’s do, ideally we use the BB to share data / views , opinions, i don’t take it personally whatever anyone posts.

We know THG is leaky, this will move fast when Mouldy makes his move, it’s just when and how £much?

‘Got to be in it to win it ‘

Agree on the Management Strategy Notsofast

It’s just when does he make his move?

If he gets Qatar to agree a price per share that they will pay then he throws it out there and forms a concert party - in effect - with any II’s rolling with him

Timing and £price per share ?

Gut feel it has to be Q4 as the market may well start to turn Q1 2023 as it looks ahead - in general

£price ? Will he try and steam roller over the line ?He is a deft hand at deal making ,wouldn't put it past him to try and nick this for £1.25p to £1.50p if I was making a guess

Announce he has 55% on board and (tries to ) strong arm it to 75.1%

At that point you either sell or roll your equity into an a private vehicle

Just an opinion

Canary, good debate

Similar theme, I’ve been thinking about what’s the annual economic value of the Global Distribution Centres.

From various Conf calls/ info it looks like 15% of the total space is being utilised, let’s assume that generates £250M of commerce @ 6% Gross profit margin that’s what we charge Nestle etc

THG utilise some of the 15% but rounded up that’s the potential of £1.7B of global ingenuity revenue capacity @ 6%
gross

THG think they can reduce headcount by 25% via more automation and I guess they will learn to max the space for increased capacity

Appreciate it’s a very rough estimate but the clients they are targeting are in similar sectors to current, so used rule of thumb, open for debate.

For a business generating £250M earning 6% with the infrastructure in place - capex spent - with potential to generate £1.75B and £100M gross profit it has be worth more than £zero today ?

Good bants Dp :-)

Does kind of show we ain’t affected by Ukraine moving forward

Dp… think they eat grass :-)