Member Info for Okehurst1

The more you look at what this guy has put together and the more you have to respect him as an entrepreneur / deal maker - put aside the share price just looking at the business and his deal making not the man, no idea what he’s like personally, it’s irrelevant in this context

He sells £700M of new THG shares to SoftBank

Enjoys the benefits within THG as a shareholder - of the £700M

Then buys back a chunk of the £700M shares - with his new bestie Qatar for just £38M keeping himself under the 29.99%
( family friends)

Locking in Qatar and eying up their $cash pile in the process

That’s just in the last few weeks, class bit of business for himself, you have to stand back and appreciate his skill to negotiate

You just wouldn’t bet against him

Hi Licker

Mouldy’ actions indicate he is up to something, him and his Chairman are not engaging with the City and are both snapping up shares on the cheap - suggest he is done with the City, personal opinion

We know he’s greedy - who demands an £800M bonus! It was nuts it was allowed Pre IPO , put aside its current value he’s now got close to 25% of the company with his wife

If he doesn’t Bid he leaves his flank exposed IF the market doesn’t re rate the £160M EBITA 2023 ditto forward £200M for 2024

We have heard him on the conf call recently bemoan the City maybe they can all have a cuddle and make friends but it doesn’t feel like that’s the case ?

Either way am pretty relaxed, we either get a quick £1.20 to £1.45 maybe a tad more or we get rerated and his Golden share expires

News breaking https://on.ft.com/3DSAhUg

Grain shipments from Ukraine will resume on Wednesday after Russia
agreed to rejoin a UN-backed initiative to allow their export, ending a stand-off that threatened to reignite a global food crisis.

Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defence minister, had phoned his Turkish counterpart to say Moscow was back on board.

Erdogan, who has maintained close ties with Vladimir Putin since Moscow launched its invasion of Ukraine and helped broker the original grain deal in July, said Putin told him he would like to see “the poorest countries of Africa” benefit first.

The next shipments of grains will head to Somalia, Djibouti and Sudan, countries particularly vulnerable without Ukrainian agricultural imports, the Turkish president added.

Re thread title

Golden’s assessment is correct

Suggest we have consensus that EBITA is quite possibly the best way us PI’s can forward value THG - if we use FCF its safer but we may miss the opportunity, ideally run FCF alongside
so you can track / adjust your valuation
Problem is THG tell is so little EBITA is as good as it gets off them

So then it’s the multiplier on next years EBITA
I kicked off with X 10 and other posters pointed out we should be at x14 as that’s the retail sector, it could well be 14X

THG have informed us they will do £100M to £120M 2022 and indicated to the market £160M 2023 EBITA

Suggest it’s fair to say IF THG deliver £100M come end of year - you have to think they are confident with 8 weeks left - then we should sit between £1 - £1.20

Again if they confirm £160M EBITA 2023 we could see £1.40 in Q1 2023

Open for debate on above but I think it’s fair view from numerous posters - no way it’s £4 plus though

Of course all bets off if Mouldy Bids, he could try £1.20 knowing he will pay £1.45p and possibly the market will take - he squeeze’s enough equity to get him over 75% with his current unofficial concert party, maybe that’s his gamble

Fair post Mando

Risk / reward for Shorts is looking dodgy from here, especially with THG cash at hand being £670M and £100M to £120M plus EBITA 2022, maybe £160M EBITA 2023

As we can see the II shorts are trying to get out but it’s hard for them to get volume, that squeeze will continue, they tried to push the price back to scare investors but it’s not worked as such they are having to pay more to entice holders to sell

If the sector is forward 14X EBITA, who would sell at 60p when you can sit tight and get £1 to £1.20 ( double your money ) in maybe 8 weeks

Shorts are fighting a losing battle and the smart Shorts are bailing first leaving the laggards to pay the higher price

Thanks 2phevs

Bloodbath across the market for the Shorts focused on bombed out stocks

Market looking ahead

We hit our £100M EBITA next 8 weeks we go to £1 to £1.20

Then it’s on 2023 EBITA

I do have thank the shorts though or I wouldn’t be in here at 45p ish

Oxford … master stroke indeed

With his wife’s / family / friends shares he bought it would have took him over the 29.9%

That was his commission for getting Qatar a top deal

I wouldn’t bet against Mouldy

That’s what the BoD said last week with just 8 weeks of the year left

They must be confident

On £120M @ 14X we are at £1.20 - could be the £1 at £100M

IF they firm up 2023 forecast same time @ £160M we should move to £1.40

Takes your chances but there is a fair chance we either rerate to £1 to £1.20 next 10 weeks

Or

Mouldy presses the button to take private in meantime

One way or another we get to £1.20, that’s a decent return from todays price

Well done S/gold

Brave trade that

They are at Cini

Almost 3% of the total shares are disclosed shorts
Heavens knows how many under .5%

300% up now Cini

Markets looking ahead today and Shorts will be considering the same

Ocado was 40%
Cini - up 120%

Brutal

He throws his Bid into the ring and we Bag plus

Such a leaky ship at THG

He has to go this Q4 or he misses the Boat

Not saying 100% nailed but a decent probability he presses the button and we get a bagger plus …

Ocado up nearly 40%

Shorts getting crushed in there, brutal day for them

That will have our boys who are short looking over their shoulder today

Go to be in it to win it - Long

Fair comment Jet

Jet, more on the quantum side of the gross shares

4.1% to 2.8% for disclosed … 30% reduction

I’ve not checked latest data, but defo direction is reduction

Ste, who cares unless anyone trading ?

If your here for 100% jumps and then nick a bit of cash it’s a different game plan

Sit back, enjoy the jump, THG very leaky and Shorts reducing

Think it’s sentiment Golden - D2C, automaton, retail and b2b relationships

We know on an EBITA basis we are well undervalued, anyone holding a short will get toasted here one day, it’s coming.

On a personal note, I know my loss on my holding if I lost it all but Shorting THG could a 200% or more from these levels

100% spot on Justise

Shorts getting stretchered out of Ocado

Will happen here