Member Info for Okehurst1

Ocado up 30% nice for shareholders

Killer for Shorts

How many USA PI’s missed the USA October jump ?

46 year wait and gone in a few weeks

Hard to call though, contrarian stuff.

Trading the stock and nicking 5% here and there, nowt wrong with that if that’s your game - all here to make $$

Problem is that Bid could drop any time and that’s the issue, you could just miss that 100% or 200% spike

THG jumped 100% within the month

All about timing ?

Mouldy puts his Bid in - IF he does - and we get 200% jump

Need to be in it to win it I guess

https://theweek.com/stock-market/1017967/the-dow-just-had-its-best-month-since-1976?amp

What’s the total £Millions Mouldy has bought in shares in the last 15 months ? Is it £38M ?

He nicked that £800M bonus for doing nothing - how we negotiated that package, no idea ?

He put the deal together for Qatar and wanted a piece, he’s greedy and wants more on the cheap, it’d not an isolated incident - him being greedy

Hi Golden,
Mouldy is greedy, he wanted a piece of the pie for putting it together - his commission

Thanks Steve

Hi Steve

Is that a full 10% ? - firewall on link

With no communication from our Chairman other than him buying shares in the open market ,Moulding not even being bothered with an Institutional conf call last week , Qatar upping their stake by buying out SoftBank alongside Moulding and we all know no love lost between Mouldy and the City, there has to be a good chance a Bid is being worked.

Guess it’s down to Qatar writing the cheque to fund the deal - Mouldy seems happy to work with them ?

Notsofast / message crossed on t/o value

On same page, we all agree

Nb HH just having a bit of banter :-)

Good debate yesterday evening Folks

Helicopter view consensus ?

- EBITA valuation maybe the markets choice way to value
THG eventually ?

- We range from 10X to 14X EBITA which appears to be the market value for our sector on LSE
Important because IF we do hit £100M EBITA this year we
should be valued at £1.4B £1 a share before looking forward

IF guidance is £160M EBITA 2023 it gives us some idea of where the share price could be if Moulding / The Good Lord change tact with their communication

So Mouldy may well be in tricky position? If we can form a consensus range on value so can the larger II investors
they will be saying similar to us little PI’s sharing data on a BB

He’s not going to be able to go lower than £1.20 on £100M EBITA 2022 baking in that market value should be on 2023 £EBITA

On forward £160M 2023 EBITA at X14 EBITA we have £1.60

£1.20 to £1.60 range he is looking at, he has to be, funded by Qatar, if he doesn’t pull it off we get to the £1.20 / £1.60’2023 by default as the £160M EBITA comes through and his Golden Share expires

Put aside cost savings / Ingenuity growing and other side of the debate, competition, World economy, I would take the
£100M EBITA today for 2022 and the £160M EBITA for 2023
we know what the market value of our shares will / should be

Nb the II shorts can see these numbers as well

Do we think 14X is doable

On that basis IF we come in £100M EBITA does that put us at £1 ?

Then we get an up lift on the £160M 2023 EBITA ?
even 50% to start with?

£1.30 ? Would we get that valuation on the market Q1 2023 IF we hit the £100M for full year 2022?

Post of the day HH :-)

Hi Golden,

Let’s hope your right and it’s more than 10X, it’s a big ticket number plus the Debt on top ? And lease liabilities?

HH :-)

Here’s the rub, IF Mouldy doesn’t make a move this is without doubt open to a corporate raider to break it up, we hang out to Sept 2023 and this becomes a target, Mouldy knows that, that’s why he has to move quick
If he waits into Q1 2023 the value starts to move to £1.45 maybe a bit more

What’s the market price X EBITA?

10X looks fair value, we might get £205M 2024 ?
It’s £1.45 a share

£1.20 to £1.30 is fully valued on a none debt funded basis

No chance a PE deal could stack in this climate the cash ain’t there to service

Hosai, on the directors side its fiduciary duties - remember them saying that on the conf call why they could do a debt deal ?

The markets have moved even worse on interest rates and we have a much better handle on the EBITA, it was never going to work

Justise, I can’t see how £1.70 is funded plus the £670M from THG cash flow ? Debt fuelled ?

It couldnt be funded and the primary banks wouldn’t give
PE any security , total charge would with them ( primary )

PE would be paying at best 10% on the carry maybe 14%
The numbers just don’t stack

Moulding would be risking a lot, don’t forget he’s got the rent on the buildings vs his own debt against same
Nowt in it for him

Qatar buying out our shares - or whoever is the only way

Then it’s all about valuation in 2023 numbers

HH it’s not apples with apples
The £1.70 was debt fuelled, THG can’t afford to take on that debt level

This would be a completely different structure

The banking facilities stay in place - imagine trying to renegotiate £670M loan on top of £1B of debt from PE ?
Doubt it’s possible on forward £160M EBITA

The only way a deal works is Mouldy finds a buyer for our stock, but will they pay above 10X EBITA ?
Great if they did but realistically 10X looks full on 2023

He would just say the world had changed and this taking out secondary - it’s not debt

That’s his card to use, there was no way this business could have been loaded as much ( maybe more ) of £1B of debt Hosai , the cash flow ain’t there.

Iain Mc must have known that … he’s been a director for years

We are all getting a better angle now on the £numbers - it’s not easy mind when they tell is very little but we have a feel for the EBITA 2023 … £160M , maybe £170M on a good day but there can’t be any slip ups

Demonstrates just how cheap we are today IF we hit the £100M for this year but on a buy out we ain’t worth more than £1.20 to £1.30 for a take out today