Member Info for Okehurst1

Should be up in a minute

It’s not up yet
Just took 4 slugs of £25k long and one £17k

Golden, fair point

Throw in the 20% drop after hours looks over done - we will soon find out 2.30pm

Nice bit of bunce for the Platforms providing leverage when they can mark a share down but carry the risk themselves as they close out illiquid punters

Shopify was the update I was waiting for, was pleased with their numbers - even though it matters little as Ingenuity is valued at zero

And their consortium of Bankers lending them an additional £150M with Covenant lite terms that are Parri Persu to exiting facility

You don’t lend another/ extra £150M on those terms IF there is a problem

The Banks see everything … we see very little

£650M cash at hand

£120M to £100M EBITA

Personally I discount the brokers valuations be that higher or lower to the share price

Moulding didn’t even bother doing a Conf call after the update this week, these brokers know as much LTH’s know at best

Focus on cash - we have £670M
Capex - heavy lifting done
D2C market the place to be
Ingenuity valued at zero
Sales growing
£2.3B revenue this year
55% of which is ROW

Difficult to fathom as THG tell us very little on Ingenuity

Golden
Will try and find my piece of research on the £200M plus of revenue going through Ingenuity in total - it obviously includes the gross revenue they collect for the client
the £12M will be their income
Ingenuity charge 6% to their client

Listen in … 4 min 40 seconds in

They have a catch phrase of ‘ Shop Promise ‘ for their retailer that they can guarantee a time zone to deliver their product

Ingenuity is 70% 24hrs
Balance following day

Don’t forget we have 25% of our sales in USA and 55% ROW total and robots handling 30% of sales

It’s impressive for something valued at £Nothing

Apologies # slick global

Steve they have 8 of their target 20 whales, generating close to £1/4B this year, they will have invested close to £400M this year /next visit capex , with a seventh global distribution network not set up .

30% of all sales are now automated
70% 24hr delivery

The heavy lifting has been done here, it’s been a learning curve ( and a half )

The good thing for THG shareholders all of the above is valued by the market as £Zero !

Beauty and Nutrition at just .4 X Sales with £670M cash at hand

Shopify is one big and successful Ingenuity style business

D2C is the way e-commerce is going, THG are on the money
they don’t just source /engineer / manufacture their own Beauty / Nutrition products they own their own marketing / distribution network and should generate £2.3B this year following $Billions invested into the Company

The whole lot of THG is currently $Valued at just above the enterprise value of the cash on the balance sheet - relatively speaking wise

It’s nuts how cheap this is and the market has woken up to that as we saw a 100% jump last 2 weeks, lots more to go yet

7 minute interview 6hrs ago with Shopify CEO following the release of their $numbers last night which were good, it’s bad times are behind them.

The Amazon model is under pressure because it doesn’t work for many business’s especially if your a larger company - we know the reasons why.

Ingenuity is valued at £zero so it doesn’t make much difference either way but it does highlight the opportunity in THG case of targeting ARPU rather than chase anyone to be a customer

Well worth the time to watch.

https://youtu.be/f2GdBA0Cf9o

Mouldy had us kippered at the moment with that golden share

Mute point but no mention in update on premium listing either

Ingenuity is valued at £zero by the market

We could measure across to ELF for Beauty and someone else for Nutrition for each division, it’s kind of pointless

THG not valued much above the enterprise value of its cash at hand.

One for when we reach a much higher £value - IF we don’t get bought out by the insiders in the meantime / Mouldy Golden Share expires, whichever comes first

Been a good 2 weeks

Remember when the Good Lord disclosed he had bought more shares - last purchase

It took 2 weeks before he disclosed

I wonder if we are in same position with insiders buying but we just don’t know as yet ? This includes Qatar Boys

Thanks for heads up Blinky

Same here … just

250pts long , part fill order, £3000 margin
Can’t trade above it in volume

One way bet for the Quants trading this one as it goes up

Really is horrible for the Shorts.

We should see the next leg up this afternoon, purchases slowing down, 2.7M

MM’s will have to move this up a few pence to tease out put a few more sellers.

Quants will be playing with this one as well.

Nb Since Tuesday 2.5M purchased has bumped us 10% each time