Member Info for Okehurst1

Suggest THG is now a tricky one to trade, sell and buy back lower

Mouldy and Qatar have to make their move Q4 otherwise it runs away from them

He has secured his flank with £650M of cash in the business
he’s working his stock harder, he just needs to negotiate the right buy out price with the II’s who hold the shares and who can’t roll into a private vehicle due to their MO - their price is our price

Reckon those conversations have started, IG is the canary in the mine

Agree Golden

Think it’s just a sigh of relief that in exceptional economic conditions we are still growing, fully funded and the heavy Capex programme is almost complete

I quite like the ARPU model for Ingenuity, reckon there is loads of cost to strip out in this division via targeting additional revenue from existing clients rather than chase everything

£200M Rev in this division valued at £zero is an opportunity

When Moulding put his Bid I will make an excellent return on capital invested but part of me wants this one to run and run

Looks that way Coldspy

IG know both sides of the trade, always a good indicator of direction of travel, this is going one way for time being whilst the II shorts try to close out

It’s good update Golden, we are financially secure and still growing in a tough market

£656M of cash
Capex to be pulled back

Margin increase next as well put prices up a tad and commodity prices / energy continue to drop

Really is a positive update

Think we all know Mouldy will take a pop to go private, it’s just what price we get now?

Take your pick on the numbers today

We have access to £656M of cash
No liquidity issues ditto no Covenant worries

Beauty over £1B a year in pro forma revenue
Nutrition £660M a year Ditto
Average Order Value Stable

Group stock levels normalising after completion of global logistics roll out and steady unwind of the last 2 years working capital

Full year guidance of up to £130M EBITA

Even Ingenuity which is valued at £zero will chip in £200M of revenue this year and being repositioned

Mouldy / Qatar called the bottom at 39p, no wonder him and the Good Lord have been buying up stock

Mute point - how did Mouldy get away with that trade last week knowing what he knew, ditto Qatar ?

How do we know ?

Moulding tells us in the statement

‘The fourth quarter has started positively, and we are well positioned from a logistics and supply perspective to meet the significant uplift in demand anticipated during the cyber period, whilst continuing to deliver a high-quality customer experience’

Say it all … if your not in with a synthetic Long position you cant buy in but more importantly you can’t cover if your short in the physical markets

IG are always one step ahead as they see both sides of the trade plus just as importantly who is trying to cover - II wise

Only way to close your short now is to buy in the physical market

We are only going one way for time being

Bought for £700M plus

Got £38M back last week

Mouldy and the Qatar boys well kippered them

Steve, the market can see through Mouldys game plan

We didn’t even get an analyst call, it’s just a question of when he makes his next move

Personally I don’t think anything us little people say on here moves the price

We saw that with the Form 8’s / throw in IG was just 4% Shorts
it’s all about the II’s

The more info we all share the more we all make more £££
waste of energy being personal

Alternative point of views backed by data gives us retail punters a better chance

My average is 45p, been a good morning

Wouldn’t

How handy was that £700M off SoftBank :-)

Then nicking their £700M shares for £38M

Got to hand it to Mouldy he’s a consummate deal maker, I would back against him pulling another rabbit out the Hat for Ingenuity, issue is it will probably be private by then

Hi Golden good debate

Mouldy has gamed this out, no analyst call is just another sign

Reckon QIA have the pipeline list / forecast for Ingenuity

It’s an ARPU model now, grab more and more business from each big Whale client , that’s the plan, the infrastructure is in place, no need for a large sales / marketing team, target your market and push the ARPU, makes sense to me

Either way the market values Ingenuity at £zero

Nb On IG

96% of all THG positions were Long yesterday

We just just sit back now and watch the II Shorts ( borrowed stock ) get ripped apart

This week

I like it … focus on ARPU, sales and marketing costs lower

They have a unique product / service, it’s all place they have bagged 8 of the top 20 target companies, focus on the whales does make sense and to top it off Ingenuity valued at £zero

It’s a win win

Golden, he doesn’t care.

Moulding has an agenda, think it’s pretty clear what it is, he wants private, he’s got his new blank cheque pals , they had to squeeze out SoftBank first - mission accomplished
That was the bottom of the market

Now it’s line up the II’s who can’t roll with him - some on the registrar can’t hold stock in private companies, they will need to negotiated with, it’s these II’s shirt tails we holding onto for our best deal

Am beginning to warm to Vivek’s vision, Nestle attending the Ingenuity day was encouraging

Big whales using Ingenuity infrastructure to save on capex, a decent global reach, 30% automated orders , 70% same day delivery, that’s attractive to international business rather than use Amazon - touched base in the Sunday Times this week

‘THG Ingenuity re-positioned under CEO Vivek Ganotra to focus on larger, higher contract value clients, leveraging the Group's proprietary technology platform and end-to-end proposition. Ingenuity has a strong and growing pipeline of these opportunities in addition to expanding propositions across the existing client base’

Ha!

Shorts maybe 7p upside

200%/ 300%. Downside

Not a good hand to play