Member Info for Okehurst1

Golden it’s valued at zero by the market it’s being repositioned to focus on larger clients, you could get the gist from the last conf call

No worries from me on that area now, I never liked the catch all model they started with, much prefer this ARPU approach

The 39p Moulding / Qatar purchase last week has set the floor, THG is still growing, it’s well funded, the equity markets always look 9 months ahead.

If Moulding is going to make his move for a buy out there has to be a chance it’s Q4 ?

Would anyone would be short on this one today ?

Upside? 7p ?
Downside ? 200% to 300% ?

Ryan, got to look how they are pivoting Ingenuity to focus on larger customers, Ingenuity is currently valued at $zero

‘THG Ingenuity re-positioned under CEO Vivek Ganotra to focus on larger, higher contract value clients, leveraging the Group's proprietary technology platform and end-to-end proposition. Ingenuity has a strong and growing pipeline of these opportunities in addition to expanding propositions across the existing client base’

Message crossed HH, same gist, agree.

Energy costs back to Pre war / inflation will fall, interest rates hopefully peak Q1 2023, personally I think we will look back at the Moulding /QIA £38M purchase of Softbanks £700M stake at the bottom of this cycle

Business growing 10% in a difficult environment

No worries about £cash

Then this paragraph - the model is coming together

‘THG Ingenuity re-positioned under CEO Vivek Ganotra to focus on larger, higher contract value clients, leveraging the Group's proprietary technology platform and end-to-end proposition. Ingenuity has a strong and growing pipeline of these opportunities in addition to expanding propositions across the existing client base’

…it’s coming together

Moulding / QIA must be thinking when do we make our move, if that’s their end game ?

Energy prices / commodities down / interest rates peak next year/ Inflation drops to 6% as a figure alongside the Goldenshare expiry date on countdown, if there is a window it’s Q4 right now

We may look back when Moulding throws his Bid into the ring and confirm what we think now that his and QIA’s snaffling of Softboys stake for £38M - that they paid £700M for - was a class bit of business and marked the bottom give or take

Day ahead U.K. energy prices for Gas and Electricity are now back at Pre war levels - due to LPG storage

Positive stuff for the economy

Fed peaks interest rates Q1 2023

Stock market tends look 9 months out, it’s hard to call the bottom but we may just be there / close to .

Thing is Steve you have to be in it to win it

Mouldy is up to something, he has gamed this out, could come out the blue

Know we know this stuff but worth reminding ourselves that Mouldy has form.

He’s dropped £38M of his cash into shares last 15 months, the Good Lord chipping in with a £Mill plus
Then his new ‘besties ‘ the Qatar crew , all buying in on the cheap
He recently picked 2 new non executives to join the BoD who have a colourful past

We get no info of note on what’s going regarding margins, where the near £400M capex over 2 years is being spent - no detail

Anyway we know what we are dealing with, hopefully the II’s not rolling over will negotiate a good deal and we benefit

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/sep/04/hut-group-cancelled-2011-flotation-after-multimillion-pound-was-uncovered

THG always seems to be a bit ‘leaky ‘ before news, I wonder if the Quants /non insiders drove the price down this morning and insiders bought in as they have an insight into the message ?

If it would have stuck at 40p as a number I would be thinking we have got a stinker, touching back to the 50p before indicates we may not get a bad shock tomorrow ?

Any views ?

2phev

Golden posts some decent stuff , I want to know as much data as possible, good or bad - I’ve not been in THG as long as Golden so it’s helpful stuff

Ditto like to be challenged, Golden responds, we have shared opposite views, which is fine , but I always take on board what they are putting out there

Nb don’t think any of us move the share price with a post, it’s just helpful getting info / data / sharing

Thanks for sharing Golden

Good point HH , not thought of that ?

Does Mouldy have the clout to get past the II’s with a Bid whilst he holds the Golden Share ? - assuming QIA fund buying our investors not rolling with them

Give up the GS and then Bid would be the right thing to do but does he have to ?

‘ The City is prepared to face a wave of stock market delistings as private equity dealmakers eye takeovers at depressed valuations, according to an industry poll.

Research by the investment bank Numis has revealed that private equity investors are focused on taking public companies private next year to capitalise on the declining value of UK stocks.

Numis polled 200 private equity professionals who specialise in mid-market companies and found that 92 per cent were drawing up plans for take-private deals. Dealmakers expect institutional shareholders to welcome their approaches as they face an uptick in redemption requests from their own clients. The polling found that 83 per cent felt confident that City institutions would be receptive to their advances.

A string of delistings could be controversial if there are fears of opportunistic behaviour by private equity, with institutional investors losing out from the value extracted from companies when they go private.

Institutional investors could take advantage of cost cutting after a company is delisted if they are able to invest in private vehicles. Piscitelli said: “They can play a potential role in that and reap the benefits of some change that they will drive into that organisation and then upon exit or relisting the institution can see a benefit from it. I’ve talked to people about structures that work like that, but not all institutional money can operate in that way.”

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/6c415c2c-530a-11ed-b965-3a5f647316f8?shareToken=71f8206ac393d9cccc9a8870c20eb74a

dp, interesting thread.

Suggest though that Moulding does have history of doing the dirty on stakeholders, worth a look at the early history of My Protein and how he acquired / purchased the brand and then misrepresented the business’s profitability moving forward -to the owner he bought it from so - he could avoid paying the ‘ earn out ‘ bonus ,all public information Btw and THG had to settle with the founder of My protein

Moulding has history downplaying £numbers when it suits him, as a little PI Investor I don’t trust him to be concerned about me, think he genuinely care’s about his staff/ employees though.

However as we stand today I also don’t see these traits as a negative, he’s a deal maker.

We are now hanging on to the shirt tails of the II’s who won’t be rolling with him into his private vehicle, their deal is our deal, it’s our best bet of getting a bumper payout - above £1.70

For what it’s worth

Since being on this BB I have found the information/ data off Golden to be interesting, the poster knows a lot about THG - has history understanding the model over years, if I post data wrong the poster puts me right in a fair response.

Can understand why certain posts can come across as negative but if they are factual then it’s good we know stuff, last thing we want is an echo chamber

Nb Golden has been more positive when I have been negative, putting stuff into prospective

It’s good to have Justise on the BB and I embrace the positivity

Let’s hope we hear some good news on Tuesday.

Morning Steve

Ha! Forgot it was 8 :-)

Let’s hope we hear of other additions this week

Nestle an existing client attending recent Ingenuity Day at THG

THG say 7 of the top 20 brands in their target group now on board

Global spread of Automated distribution centres

Big business distrusting Amazon / supermarkets and want to sell direct to consumer?

Why not utilise Ingenuity if your a big brand ( Whale)