Member Info for Okehurst1

Moulding had/ has an agenda
He helped drive the share price down so he could pick up more shares on the cheap, ditto the Good Lord who didn’t even bother joining the Conference Call a few weeks back

Hi HH :-)

Interesting how IG removing trading in stocks - bid / offer or both -, gives us PI’s an indication of which way things may move , appreciate it’s a grey area but helpful after all

Seen another stock am in do same last week

Something going on and II’s closing stuff in an organised manner

We know even BoD directors were shorting this one via wholly owned entities - Iain Mc , he of the none bid

Take out us little PI’s on the way down, same on way up

…. Mentioned at 33p this was getting walked up to 40p

Now we get same up to 45p with no synthetic shorts of note to pull us back

Few thoughts

Could they convert the potentially largest known creditor - balance owed to the director via the manufacturing plant -
into a convertible loan note paying a coupon ?
Bob Holt is the man to negotiate .

They had £100M stock on the balance sheet as of last reported full accounts

Bob will probably push for a decent raise to give headroom, like £50M, repay debt and have cash at hand, can’t see it being lower than the 50, they need to square the Bank who will want their £money back, plus they need working capital

What will the £50M new cash want vs stock / £200M revenue

THG for example has X .25 Rev valuation

Let’s assume Bob could negotiate .5 X Rev ? Big ask but possible, so £100M plus £50M new cash
If the market says ‘we can buy THG @ x .25 Rev why would we buy at x.5 Rev then it’s £50M plus £50M
But it needs the £21M owed to the Director to be Pre agreed in advance

50% dilution looks worse case unless there are some real nasties out there

Liz doesn’t have a Golden Share egh?

Whats going on behind the curtain, THG has always been leaky via the share price moves before us little PI’s find out

Wonder if Mouldy making his move - started process speaking to II’s , whatever his plan is ?If he going to try and take private can he nick this 80p to £1 ?

No synthetic shorts, a nice quick jump from 33p to 40p, the market knows something at play ?

Scary for the shorts

Yeah but they have to disclose over .5% short
We ain’t seen any movement here

IF … the derivative market has removed synthetic shorts then it indicates there is lack of liquidity in the physical market

Something going on, no idea what?

The shorts can’t buy on margin - IG won’t take trades with leverage

Looks like no synthetic short market of note in THG - appears something going on

Allsworth is one of the largest creditors ? And shareholder
Think he is still owed £21M for the U.K. manufacturing plant

It’s key he is supportive going forward and why wouldn’t he?

They had £100M of stock/ chemicals to utilise

Other than sentiment at Stock market level the business will be continuing as normal, if there is a raise that will be sorted once audit complete

The only risk I can see is they may only have 26 weeks from start of suspension or the AIM Team can delist the shares - need to fact check exact time scale but it used to be 6 months

Suggest some technicals in play / chart/ under 40p looks a steal at the moment

Plus fundamentals

PepsiCo results yesterday were good

Producers now moving their prices up
Whey off highs
Bottom fishing

No margin not taking risk

IG not taking trades ….just is

It’s always been leaky at THG regarding share price movement , THG even 4% up is unusual when market down

They have been absorbing the cost increases the last 9 months are we about to hear about margin increases ?

It’s an easy win for Moulding, makes sense commercially

The market is looking at the debt £350M next year after disposal of £44M assets,-broadly where we should be

We are advised the debt is covenant lite but we have no details other than it doesn’t need refinancing till 2026

Ideally we need the margin to move up the 200pts as advised on the conference call from 6% to 8% - that’s some jump in a tight market on £2.3B revenue

Throw in £130M capex next year - almost £400M 2022/23 total

Forget the £1.70 that was smoke and mirrors, it was not viable.

We have a growth target of 12%

So the cash in the bank is a debt facility not after tax cash

THG ain’t going bust, some valuable assets here but we not getting a big jump in the share price till the War ends/ inflation stabilises globally and the gilt market steadies coupled with interest rates topping out ..,

Last one , Mouldy’s Golden Share expires

V frustrating but we are where we are so to speak

Thanks for sharing your research Golden /,Steve, good debate

At £1.50 he will need to borrow £1B to buy out 50% ?
Plus Company debt £400M next year

I would take £1.50 today

Good points HH

The PCA may be classed as a separate entity - like a pension fund as an example

So he is on 70p as of July this year of that was the case.

Or he waits to July next year and makes a move in the gap to September ?

LTH’s understand we don’t need the cash for the business, it’s well funded with lite covenants, suggest this is more about Moulding and control now and what’s his game plan/ agenda, the ball is in his court until that Golden Share expires and it’s all bets off.

I genuinely think he wants to do good for his employees but us little PI’s he has no regard for.

Steve agree.

Rock, you would have to show your £numbers to back up a £zero, I can’t see that, they would sell something and as Steve says just cut back on capex

It’s like a phoney war at the moment, we are awaiting Mouldings next move, hopefully we have enough II votes to block him IF he plays his hand that is