Member Info for Okehurst1

FT report, thought this was interesting

‘The Bank of England has raised interest rates by 0.75 percentage points to 3 per cent in its most forceful act to tame inflation for 30 years but signalled that borrowing costs would not rise in the future by as much as markets expect.

The pound fell 2 per cent against the dollar, which had been buoyed by a contrasting message from the Federal Reserve that US interest rates would increase by more than Wall Street anticipates.

Warning that the outlook was “very challenging” and forecasting a long recession ahead, the UK central bank issued unusually strong guidance that interest rates would not need to rise much further to bring inflation back to its 2 per cent target’

https://on.ft.com/3DTx4E1

Look at Glambia / ELF recent results

THG forecasts up to £130M EBITA this year

Our rerate is coming and we may well get a 40% day in the process, would see some serious short covering with 9% lent out

Contd

In Ocado’s case, there may have been a "short squeeze" at work here after a prolonged share price decline. This happens when traders bet on the opposite outcome to a share price fall, effectively testing the conviction of the short sellers. Sometimes the squeeze needs a trigger event like a piece of "good news" as with Ocado’s. But a daily share price gain of nearly 40% for such a large company is still unusual even in today’s jumpy markets.

Handy quick read snap shot published yesterday

‘For subscribers to recent IPOs, to see the likes of THG (THG) and Deliveroo (ROO) on the list will be an uncomfortable experience. But short sellers are just following momentum, with THG off 72%, and Deliveroo down 69% in the year to date.’

‘To an outsider, short sellers may seem like shadowy figures in the investment industry. But alongside specialist trading firms and hedge funds, some of the biggest asset managers are involved in shorting, including BlackRock, Jupiter and JP Morgan.
Often short positions can be taken out to cover "long" positions as part of everyday risk management, where fund managers are managing their significant stakes in companies. Other familiar names on the FCA’s list include Marshall Wace, Citadel Advisors and GLG Partners.’

https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/227969/the-most-shorted-stocks-on-the-ftse.aspx

Good point 2Phev
They have almost £800M debt as well
£3B m/cap

2B m/cap ELF Beauty not a fraction of THG size / scope

Our rerate - or buy out will come

I thought we would be more like £90M EBITA for this year before recent RNS, if they come in half way to forecasts at £115M that’s decent, looking at the My Proteins market place we may just do it

THG saying this last week - buried away in the RNS you would think this is the headline

‘Full year adjusted EBITDA guidance is maintained between a range of £100 to £130 million ‘

Funny old game Mouldy is playing

Thanks for sharing 1pencil

Interesting comment in RNS

Commenting today, Siobhán Talbot, Group Managing Director said:

"I am pleased to report that the momentum outlined at our half year has been sustained through the third quarter. Consumption trends continue to be resilient across the performance nutrition and healthy lifestyle brand portfolios in GPN. Revenue growth was primarily driven by pricing actions in response to unprecedented inflation.

The global macro-economic environment continues to be challenging and we are monitoring consumption and inflation trends closely. The strength of our platforms in better nutrition, supported by the combination of pricing actions taken and operational efficiencies achieved, gives us continued confidence that we will deliver strong full year EBITA growth.

This confidence sees us today updating our full year guidance to 10% to 13% growth in adjusted EPS, constant currency. Based on current foreign exchange rates, our reported adjusted EPS growth is expected to be 26% to 29%."

2phevs
It’s a good point that, that £25M a year must come in handy for Mouldy - he will have debt on other side mind but the margin must be decent

Last week saw the highest inflow of $cash into the Tech market since March this year - $28B
On a week big tech stocks got marked down serious $$
Cash on the sidelines taking bets we are at the bottom / close to it, with hard cash.

Mouldy / Qatar made the same bet buying SoftBanks £700M stake for £38M, reckon they called the bottom for THG

Days like today let it wash over, £100M to £120M EBITA this year we re rate to £1 plus or Mouldy tries his hand

Good debate, personal view

USA housing market uses 30 year mortgages since 2008 crash so most with a mortgages will be on low rates and can ride this one - 30 year new mortgage 7% !!

Q1 2023 USA could well be peak rate

Europe / Canada / OZ still have short fixes / variable, these markets can’t cope with USA style rates, we may not see high rates in line with USA, the decoupling has already started, raising rates too fast/ hard will crush the economies and their currencies, yeah rates are going up here but gut feel USA almost there Q1 and heat off here, we go up slower / peak lower

On a personal level, I took the view at 45p average THG being in its sectors Beauty / Health and it’s global reach was a decent punt ( it was a bet) that I could hit 3X return

The call didn’t look too smart when we went to 31p

25% Rev USA, 55% ROW , 30% Automated orders and growing
70% global 24hr delivery times, £670M in hand and £2.3B of cash collected up front D2C market - no bad debt or rating agency not providing insurance cover so customers can’t buy off us

Lipstick and protein powder last one on the list to get cut from the budget if your into beauty and health

Top research 1pencil

Maybe Qatar ? Neat way to keep the share price depressed if your getting ready to support a Bid? - pure speculation of course

Silver cloud stuff

25% of total sales in $
55% of sales outside U.K.
whey priced in € and continuing to drop

But the share price is not the company ?
It’s a moment in time that one person will buy a share off another, at a value each party come to agreement they want to transact

The Company has 10,000 staff , £670M cash at hand, £2.4B in sales globally, it has suppliers who rely on it to pay them, the list goes on, the bankers who have lent them money etc

The value of the shares of the company are separate - important to us but their are multiple stakeholders

Put aside he’s got £670M in the Piggy Bank

‘Mouldy ‘will make £100M to £120M EBITA this year on £2.4B revenue having put together the worlds largest D2C Beauty and separately Nutrition business’s

You make your own luck and he’s been successful, let’s not forget the share price is not the company

He’s defo greedy for his own personal gain but this guy can make deals happen, I wouldn’t bet against him.

SYN , good point

Ste, check out the Euro Whey €T
Trend is your friend stuff

Tongue in cheek spoof video

He mentions ‘ exciting time of year peak trading ‘

‘ loving the My Protein ad campaign for the season ‘

I get more info on what’s going via his personal Insta account then an RNS’

Hosai,

THG reckon £100M to £120M EBITA this year - so they said in last weeks RNS

That’s decent on a £800M m/cap

Ste, know you are in deep here and lost £££ but tbh I wouldn’t have purchased this at £3.30 when you did so can see why your upset, see the frustration in your messages each day

EBITA re rate or he takes private, either way short / medium term your not going to get your £3.30 back, know it’s a bummer but it is was it is, no chance at that price for years

But at this level it’s a decent punt - am in average at 45p so in the blue, £1.35 I’ve got a multi bagger I couldn’t have done it without the Shorts though

Feels that way Licker - an offer is coming

It’s just what he gambles he can take it for?

Shorts can see all this as well, their days are numbered in terms of a trade, anyone Long it’s a win win, we re rate or Bid