Member Info for OilNovice

RBL - If you go back over the TR-1s, EHGOS has converted and sold a large portion of new shares into the market well before the Issue of Equity RNS has been released - for example, the Issue of Equity RNS released on 2 June gave a likely admission date of 9 June for 500m shares, but subsequent TR-1s showed most of these new shares had been sold into the market on 29 May.

On the 9 June EHGOS were holding 2.4% (109m shares), as per TR-1.
Since then, from looking through the trades over the last couple weeks, the likely EHGOS trades are:
- June 10 to 17 - c.750m sold (low estimate - I only have total buy/sells)
- June 18 - c.325m sold
- June 19 - c.200m sold
- June 22 - c.50m sold
- June 23 - c.250m sold
- June 24 - c.850m sold
- June 24 - c.575m reported as buys but could be sells
- June 25 - c.200m sold (so far)
Total = 2.6bn shares (not including the 575m buys).

My opinion is that EHGOS are forward selling most tranches and have likely already sold the 1.7bn and probably converted the next tranche... So, I predict TR-1s stating they reduced holding on 23 June & 24 June. And an Issue of Equity for next tranche, which they have probably already sold over 1bn shares of.

So what...? Well, in my view, we are well behind the news, we need to look at the trades and keep ahead of the RNSs. EHGOS could be converting new shares one week before the Issue of Equity RNS is released.
This will become more important as they reach the £2m mark of draw downs, as you don't want to miss the rise that will most likely occur when EHGOS are finally out...

It seems the market just keeps pushing the MCAP of ICON up...

30/03 - 1,637,129,905 shares total (after suspension)
30/03 - sp of 0.021p = MCAP of £343k
07/04 - 2,192,685,460 shares total
07/04 - sp of 0.0185p = MCAP of £405k
17/04 - 2,748,241,015 shares total
17/04 - sp of 0.035p = MCAP of £961k
05/05 - 3,248,241,015 shares total
05/05 - sp of 0.0275p = MCAP of £893k
14/05 - 4,048,241,015 shares total
14/05 - sp of 0.031p = MCAP of £1.25m
29/05 - 4,548,241,015 shares total
29/05 - sp of 0.0274p = MCAP of £1.24m
16/06 - 6,248,241,015 shares total
16/06 - sp of 0.0155p = MCAP of £968k
25/06 - 6,248,241,015 shares total
25/06 - sp of 0.02p = MCAP 0f £1.25m

I'm certain that EHGOS has converted the 1.7bn shares already, AND they have likely also been given more - maybe 2bn this time. AND that these 2bn shares are already being converted... That potentially means that the MCAP is in fact higher.

All we have left is hope.
Although, last time we were down at these levels, we moved up 500%!!!!

Can lighting strike twice? Probably no.

applegarth / Cahus - revenues and profits, liabilities and expenses will all be revealed in the Annual Report. Their fiscal year runs to June. So you will likely get this released to the market in September. ICON has no obligation to reveal numbers otherwise.

And of course EHGOS is funding their lifestyles. It has been blatantly clear. Every RNS on funding from day one of the first Financing Agreement being in place has stated that the financing will be used to pay operational costs, pay down debt, fund acquisitions and for BD. This includes salaries, of which remuneration has been transparent. We all voted by 90%+ at general meeting to agree remuneration policy.

It is frustrating to see the sp drop where it is, but again, the Financing Agreement in place will have that effect. And I think it has been very clear in RNS and on this board the diluting effect of financing.

There are many on here who have seen this company as a gamble - every since the huge rise in April, people have been hoping for a similar rise. Clutching at the hope of the one RNS that transforms the sp. It may happen, it may not.
Either sell up and accept a loss, or just leave this in the bottom draw and come back in 5 years.

Technically, this can not be classed as a vaccine. It will not instigate an auto immune response in the presence of the virus.
It is a treatment only. But a very, very good treatment by the looks of it.
Avacta could be the company that finally mitigates the economic impact of the virus:
- the POC antigen test tells someone if they have the virus
- if they are positive, the person takes Avacta treatment for twp weeks and self-isolates
- if negative, they can carry on as normal. Also if they could link this to the NHS app it would mean they have a 'pass' or 'green' status (like in China) and are free to go anywhere

Couple this with a vaccine and the novel coronavirus becomes just another winter flu... albeit more potent...

Very exciting.

It will be interesting to see who takes what...
Initially my thoughts are:
- Greencastle to acquire outright and take all liabilities
- Greencastle to outsource management to ICON (short-term)
- Greencastle to re-structure (get rid of all staff, offices, strip assets etc.)
- Greencastle to then agree a debt re-structure (probably with EHGOS)
- Greencastle keeps on their books if profitable; Or ICON acquire Maximum Media / JOE from Greencastle

Ideally, ICON will be a more streamlined operation and can poach the key talent from Maximum Media / JOE.

So... JOE Media Ltd is actually a well established media company.
- 13 million followers across social media
- 75 million people reached on and FB and IG per month
- 100 million video views per month

Only problem is, they are in administration...

BUT, it looks like ICON will not stump up any cash, they will take on the management of the assets once acquired. This is a similar model to TLE. So, Sefton is buying and JQ/LH are managing...

Potentially this is good... I see this as a 'buy and strip' model for media businesses. Similar to how banks buy up ailing companies, strip out the assets, then either dissolve or sell-on at a big profit.
The 'bid' is likely to be for a minimal cash value with more focus on staff retention, debt restructuring and legalities etc.

If this is Sefton's new game (buying and stripping of media businesses), with ICON being the partner of choice for taking on contracts / staff / debt, this may become interesting... maybe... just maybe.

RBL - but the interesting thing with ICON is since the re-listing (and that fast, big sp increase thereafter) it has developed a retail investor following that has seen substantial buying to offset the selling/dilution, even though it is very clear there is a Financing Agreement with heavy dilution, that is ongoing, and will continue for the foreseeable future.

Take today for instance, the RNS last night basically confirms a 37% dilution to be effective by 23 June. So, even though the Board has stated that within a week, the sp should be 37% lower, there are more buys than sells. And (currently) only a 16% decrease in sp...

I think people are expecting a huge RNS (or series of RNSs) to drop, and don't want to miss out. FOMO.
Also, some people may see value in this company. It is a unique space, with huge potential, and they have some good people with unique expertise here.

My thoughts are that people see this as either a long term investment, or want to ride a spike (trade). Either put some money in now, leave it a few years, and hope it will multibag. Or hope it has hit the bottom and get a quick 50% return.

Either way, I believe there is enough interest here to get us through the dilution.
We are now £500k down. £1.5m to go.
But short term, some good news would be very welcome...

I have generally had a balanced view on this company.
Since the re-listing in late March I have not been overly concerned with the dilution. They tended to coincide with positive news and the MCAP was able to increase with the dilution - that is positive.
Over the last few weeks however, we have seen a steady drop in sp. Coupled with the large dilution (1.7bn shares) just announced, this has resulted in the MCAP decreasing - that is not positive.

My concern is that ICON have dangled a lot of carrots with no further news flow to conclude their position. For example, we need an update on Alexa Skill, we need to know the status of TLE, and what is happening with Infotagion...

I still believe this could be a huge recovery play. And I have that nagging feeling that if I sell, I'll miss the big rise. But if I hold, it will just drift...

dvharrison - did your order go through?
We hit 0.0135p sp just now...

Another draw down. This time for £170k @ 0.01p.
An additional 1,700,000,000 shares to be converted and sold into the market.
That's a 37% dilution.

As this was released after hours, let's hope the MMs don't pick it up...

Today has seen a lot of buys with not many sells.
Surely the MMs should push the price up?!

Yanis - ICON can draw down up to £2m at £250k per month.
They have converted £330k so far.
The conversion price should be 90% of VWAP but seems to not follow this...

The Board did state that they are focused on getting cash flow positive so they don't need to rely on the financing.

The RNS states:

"The next step in the development of the final product to run on the installed base of mass spectrometers in clinical laboratories around the world is to evaluate and optimise the BAMS assay using patient samples at laboratory sites in the UK and US which will be done imminently before moving to manufacturing, clinical validation to quantify the sensitivity and specificity and CE/FDA approval for professional use in the summer"

So, after speaking with my friend who works in pharma, timeline is likely to be:
- Evaluate and optimise the BAMS assay = starting imminently, will take c.1 week(?)
- Manufacturing = likely setting up now(?)
- Clinical validation to quantify the sensitivity and specificity = likely 3 days(?)
- CE/FDA approval = FDA will be through EUA therefore if they have a sample of tests and IFU document it will likely be approved in 2 days(?). CE may take longer, likely 2 weeks(?).
- Use in summer
- US approval = 1 week + 3 days + 2 days
- CE approval = +1 weeks at least
- Orders should follow thereafter. I would expect AVCT have been taking pre-orders with the caveat of approval.

All in my opinion.

My estimate is that EHGOS had sold at least 550m shares by close last week.
And probably another 150m today.

Surely there must be another TR-1... surely... maybe tomorrow...

But that also means another Issue of Equity RNS - YAY!

The FED...
They are buying EVERYTHING!!!!!
- Mortgage Backed Securities
- ETFs
- Corporate Bonds including junk bonds
- REPO
- International REPO
- International USD-backed debt

EVERYTHING!!!!

So, EHGOS held 970,400,000 on the 29th May.
Looking through the trades (Sells) since then, I would estimate they have sold at least 550m shares into the market.
Also the last big sell at 13:08 today was for 70,400,000 shares... coincidence??

It looks to me as if EHGOS are retaining 5-15% holding before new shares are issued, which COULD be seen as positive - as they may be holding for a higher sp? Who knows.

Although, with that last trade, maybe they have sold out completely as they see the sp being lower...

Discuss.

Going back through the TR-1s to understand the value of ICON:

30/03 - 1,637,129,905 shares total (after suspension)
30/03 - sp of 0.021p = MCAP of £343k
07/04 - 2,192,685,460 shares total
07/04 - sp of 0.0185p = MCAP of £405k
17/04 - 2,748,241,015 shares total
17/04 - sp of 0.035p = MCAP of £961k
05/05 - 3,248,241,015 shares total
05/05 - sp of 0.0275p = MCAP of £893k
14/05 - 4,048,241,015 shares total
14/05 - sp of 0.031p = MCAP of £1.25m
29/05 - 4,548,241,015 shares total
29/05 - sp of 0.0274p = MCAP of £1.24m

The latest Issue of Equity RNS released today states that "Following Admission of the Conversion Shares, the Company's enlarged issued share capital will comprise 4,548,241,015 Ordinary Shares with voting rights. The Company does not hold any shares in treasury" and "It is expected that Admission will become effective and dealings in the Conversion Shares will commence on or around 9th June 2020"

BUT, if you look at the TR-1 issued today, the new 500m shares are ALREADY with EHGOS and were converted on 29 May.

So MCAP today is 4,548,241,015 x 0.026p = £1.18m (assuming sp stays at 0.026p).

The value of ICON is still holding firm in the face of significant dilution. This is positive.

baldy - it's just risk management IMO. If you're sitting on a 50%/100%/500% profit, and the next RNS is the 'big one' that could reduce the sp significantly, you may want to de-risk your position and take some profit.
Nothing is guaranteed in biopharma. There are always risks. But you need to be confident in your investment and stick to your investment plan.

wolves - surely you must have been convinced by your trade in this stock (to go up or drop if you are short)? What did your research conclude? How have you valued this company? What timescales? Exit strategy???
It was very clear that they will issue more equity and rumours from 'Dave' on social media are just that, rumours...

If you want to make a quick buck on a random tweet then you're better just putting the money on roulette - it's just gambling.