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Jimbooo - we were (very likely) only one month behind Sona Nanotech who are front runners for antigen testing.
Sona will likely get FDA / EU approval late July or early August if there test performs to required standards...

Avacta have the same partner in Cytiva. Ergo, we have learnt lessons from Sona and their trials / approval process. This should mean progress quicker - again assuming our product meets required standards...

In my researched opinion our time line for the LFT looks like this:
- Manufacturing partner for North America should be announced next week
- Partnership with digital health / data monitoring organisation next week (hopefully)
- Finalise optimisation and move to validation trials w/c 27 July
- Letters of Intent from governments early August
- Preliminary orders from companies throughout August
- FDA / EU approvals late August / early September

And this does not include the BAMS test or other Affimer related projects (Modern Water / covid-19 treatment / etc...).

I think the next 2 months will see an sp rise significantly.

Thanks for sharing. I always love a good typefight (Lolzzz).
My favourite has to the classic 'Tahoma'.
Why? Because it is easy to read at most font sizes, it has a simple elegance about it, and it is opensource!

@cluelessinvestor - for Cove Energy the sp opened at just under takeover offer price and stayed there until circumstances changed (second bid / tax).
There were buys and sells throughout - MMs were happy to trade as they made money on spread.
Interestingly, during takeovers arbitrage funds are very keen to take shares as they are often able to squeeze additional profit from the acquiring entity during contract negotiations. Also, they get the shares at just under takeover price so make a small %, but substantial monetary profit.

Another takeover was in Tinci Holdings. In Dec 2014, the MD decided he wanted to buyout all shareholders at 20p. This was an informal offer RNS. The sp rose that day from 4.5p to 14p. The sp stayed at the 14/15p range for a few weeks until GM for shareholders to accept offer. Then in Jan 2015 an RNS confirmed formal offer at 20p. The sp then went to 20p.

On any takeover bid, the market will always price in risk and so if the sp doesn’t re-rate to offer price, this is indication of higher risk in the offer not being finalised.
All IMO and experience.

CAW - the most memorable takeover I was a shareholder in was for Cover Energy back in 2012. Cove was a gas exploration company in Mozambique...
First offer came in from Shell for 195p - sp went straight to c.190p and stayed there...
Until, PTT (Thai O&G company) made an offer for 220p - sp jumped to 215p and remained there for days...
Until, the Mozambique government decided it would impose a Capital Gains Tax of 12.8% on any sale - the sp then dropped below 150p (I believe) and then fluctuated between 175p-190p for a few days...
Then Shell decided to match the 220p offer and pay any tax bill - the sp then went to 220p until de-listing.

It was a crazy few weeks...

But it goes to show that nothing is guaranteed, and anything can happen - good or bad!

MFM - Sona took 1 month to move from LFT optimsation to lab trial outcome.
Avacta released RNS stating they were moving to optimisation 24 June. Ergo, one could opine that if timelines correlated, Avacta's next news should be released in the last two weeks of July.

But we have more strings to our bow, namely, and in no particular order or preference:
- BAMS trials / approvals
- North America manufacturing partner for LFT
- Partnership for digital diagnostics and data capture(RENX?)
- Pre-orders subject to approvals
- AVA6000 initiation
- Medusa19 Letters of Intent

SONA total outstanding shares = 60,780,000
Current share price = $9 (CAD)
MCAP = $547m (CAD)

AVCT total outstanding shares = 248,800,000
Current share price = £1.38
MCAP = £343m

FWIW, £343m = $580m CAD

Not sure if anyone has done this in detail, I thought I'd detail the Sona news timeline (sp; % daily change) for comparison's sake:
10 Feb ($0.2; +55%) - developing 5-15 min rapid POC Covid-19 antigen test to cost c.$50.
13 Feb ($0.23; -7%) - agreement with The Native Antigen Company to provide reagents.
18 Feb ($0.21; -2.4%) - partnership with UK-based Bond Digital Health for mass data capture and analysis of test results.
3 Mar ($0.94; +40%) - partnership with GE Healthcare to develop test. Sona retain all commercial rights.
6 Mar ($0.8; -4%) - scientific advisors added to team for quality control, regulatory approval help, and US government contacts.
12 Mar ($0.66; -15%) - general update including "prototype for the Covid-19 rapid response test within the next few weeks".
18 Mar ($0.7; +17%) - successful conjugates that produce a signal only for Covid-19 (i.e. test works). Plus several governments interested in pre-ordering.
30 Mar ($1.12; +3%) - manufacturing agreement in Europe. Plus a Letter of Intent from G20 country for 2m test (once approved).
31 Mar ($1.08; -3%) - granted $4.1m Canadian non-repayable grant
13 Apr ($1.91; -10%) - moved to optimisation stage. Working with third parties for validation. Second manufacturing agreement in US. Another pre-order for 1.25m
12 May ($1.2; -20%) - successful lab trials, clinical trials throughout May, approval thereafter and sales deposits to be taken
22 May ($1.64; +4.5%) - engagement with MRIGlobal to validate tests ready for FDA and Canadian approval. Another Letter of Intent for 4.7m tests. New expressions of interest for "tens of millions" of tests
3 July ($6.97; +122%) - positive validation results. Two human 'in-field' trials to commence and finish by end of July, thereafter if successful, FDA approval.

In comparison, Avacta's next news will be the equivalent of the "12 May" news. So we are likely 1.5 / 2 months behind Sona. Share price comparison is also very bullish from there...

Also, whatever happened to the top 10 airline contract? The deal being announced just before all the lockdowns began... I’m sure that’s been cancelled as well.

I have tried to be an unbiased voice on these boards, provide facts and intelligent thoughts, and ultimately try and find positives. But with the after hours RNS today, I fear this is the beginning of the end.

The market will digest this info and on Monday I suspect the sp will drop significantly. £150k down the drain from The Tab JV, contracts gone, other contracts with reduced value, Sefton back in control...
Even the ‘positives’ were pathetic - Bigger % of deferred salaries, and maybe something coming with data management.

I can see this easily going below 0.01p at open. Constant selling from EHGOS will then push this below 0.005p next week.
EHGOS will then convert at lower prices - likely 0.005p, then maybe even 0.001p.

I would advise everyone to sell ASAP. Even if you have minimal shares or are taking a loss. If everyone sells the company goes and that will prevent anyone else being burned.

Good luck everyone. I am out having put over £45k into this. Lesson learned.

So, they've managed to get a conversion at 0.009p again!
It would be interesting to see the VWAP calculations to understand how they get the conversion price, as it always seems far lower than it probably should be...

We can now expect next week to have some huge daily volumes, maybe accompanied by a 'positive' RNS update...

Bladey - I disagree. I can't believe they've taken their finger off the pulse, or see LFT as back-up!
I'm pretty sure AS understands the huge potential revenues (and more importantly profits) the Covid tests will bring. This will then have a transformative impact on Avacta as a business, shareholders, and anyone with share incentives.
The revenue can then fund so much more for Avacta going forwards.

Also, I am sure AS wants to help in the eradication of Covid - compassion.

And lastly, I would have thought AS would want to showcase the Affimer technology to the world... What better opportunity does he have than now!?

But I do agree that for a re-rate they need to release some sales / financials.

If you analyse the NCYT timeline, they had similar movement in their speculative development phase, with some large swings.
The sustained, large upwards movement came when NCYT started to get orders i.e. revenue / profit. I think it will be the same here - we are still in the development phase which is high risk.
My opinion is that even news of CE / FDA approval, although important, will likely not see a big rise in sp.

I believe the market has priced in approvals, clinical grade sensitivity/specificity, ability to manufacture, and is merely waiting to see the size of the bottom line... With government narrative diverging on testing and companies facing financial difficulties, I am unsure on the scale of available spending.

The other big factor, is how much will AVCT actually make from each test sold? And from royalties? Once we know this, the sp will re-rate in line.

I think ICON will release an RNS Monday 7am stating that Greencastle has been successful with the bid for JOE Media and ICON will provide management.
This RNS will likely be similar to TLE where they have a profit share arrangement and a monthly fee.
But no figures in RNS.

Then after hours they will release the Issue of Equity RNS... sigh.

Okay. I’m very surprised they haven’t issued an Issue of Equity RNS after hours.
Maybe they do have something up their sleeves.
Could be a good week next week.
For once, I’m looking forward to what next week brings for ICON.

Have a lovely weekend everybody.

Rick - The 1.7bn shares they said were to be admitted on 23 June were actually admitted on 10 June.
EHGOS has done this before, where ICON draw down money and the new shares are converted well before the Issue of Equity RNS states.

But the 1.7bn shares have definitely all been sold into the market. ICON has now drawn down £500k and EHGOS has converted all the new shares.

Looks like we will end the day down...
Oh well.

rickmeister - they converted the 1.7bn shares on 10 June.
Even though the Issue of Equity RNS stated they were likely to be admitted for trading on 23 June.
EHGOS seem to always get their conversion shares earlier than stated.

And yes, EHGOS has already shifted all their shares from the most recent £170k draw down.

Baraboy - If they issue an Issue of Equity RNS for 2bn new shares after hours today, will this still gap up on Monday's open?

Although I agree that the prices aren't right. I'm getting 0.017p to sell (at NT) and 0.0173p to buy.

They received 1,700,000,000 on 10 June. Giving a total of 1,809,000,000 shares.
They had sold 109,000,000 shares by 17 June.
They sold the remaining 1,700,000,000 shares by 25 June. That's 1 WEEK!

They may release some random positive leaning statement RNS as well, to try and lift the sp a bit... Then they'll hit us with the 2bn new shares.

Awaiting the after hours Issue of Equity RNS now!