Member Info for OilNovice

These are wonderful stories of your 'best trades' and are lovely to read, particularly when most of us holders are down over 80%.
You cannot compare a start-up digital marketing company with oil companies that are drilling a prospect... or some random stock from 1987!

The fact is, from the half-year RNS, ICON made £2,500 revenue in H2 2019 with nearly £1m costs. They have immense debts and have an 'investor' that will dilute the sp by £250k every month. EVERY MONTH.
You then have to consider that the market cap is only c.£280k - so in April they will be diluting the sp by almost its mcap!!!

When the 'Investor' must sell its converted notes, they will just keep pushing the MMs down. Ask yourself, what MMs will want to buy ICON shares?? The ideal will be that MMs stop buying, but unfortunately they have to be 'a buyer of last resort'...

I have been in ICON since Feb 2019, and have been bullish previously. Unfortunately, now, with this new Financing Agreement, I just cannot see how this will ever rise.

Yanis - they will be issuing £250k worth of shares every month until they have exhausted the £5m financing limit.
The conversion price is the higher of (a) nominal market share price or (b) 90% VWAP - this is explained in the RNS released on 7 Feb...

Basically, the 'Investor' (EHGOS Fund) will be selling £250k worth of shares every month for the next 20 months!

Today reminds me of August 2015 (the previous Black Monday), when China released horrendous growth figures. Asia and Europe were down 5% ish.
But when the US opened, it dropped another 5%, going through two circuit breakers before recovering over the week...

Difference here is that there are several factors at play (Covid-19 mitigation, OPEC, Fed) that will likely escalate even further. I don't see a recovery this week, just more volatility. I personally don't see any bounce until end of next week, with a sharp rise into final week of March.

I think most holders here need 200%-300% to merely break even.
The last few sessions have been horrendous. Just horrendous.
This desperately needs news now.

I don't think they will suspend the stock as the BoD need the fund to get paid. Maybe after the £2m is drawn down that could happen... I've kinda lost interest now...

All we have now is hope. Hope of a 500% day. It can happen. Maybe. Unlikely.
Sigh...

Wkworld - market makers have to provide a market regardless. They will set the Bid and Ask accordingly. It seems there are some buyers at these levels as well...
Unfortunately, the ICON market just isn't liquid enough. They need news flow otherwise the sp will just keep getting dropped by the MMs.

Geoff - they only need to RNS if they lose a contract that they are incumbent on.
They don't need to RNS a failed prospect, negotiation, or not being able to get to contract with a client.

Price monitoring exercise.
There was a big 25m sell.
And some further selling.
Looks like a someone has had enough of waiting!

I think 25000 on the Dow is possible if the virus hits US hard. Otherwise I think it will be slight recovery and sideways.
But it seems highly likely the virus will hit US soon. Eke.

Yesterday and today we’ve seen big drops and big recoveries.
I would not be surprised if this ends blue today...
If the US can open strong and stay strong, I like our chances.

I may be able to shed some light on the Kier Living situation...
KL procures developments in three ways:
1-Competitive tender through OJEU etc.
2-Direct JV approach where someone else owns the land
3-Development Management through KL land ownership

Route 1 is generally the simplest and least profitable. It usually involves a local authority offering up land that KL develop - feeding their construction business. This route usually involves onerous SLAs and transparent, 'fair' profit sharing with the local authority. Generally KL are not very competitive.
Route 2 is similar to route 1 but no competition. It also allows a more favourable partnership for KL as they can dictate what's best for their bottom line. These opportunities are hard to come by.
Route 3 is by far the most profitable but requires large up-front investment from KL. And KL only see a return after several years. I believe KL have a large portion of this type of development structure, and they are struggling because they cannot free up capital unless they sell.

With a minimal margin coming from their other businesses unable to repay debt, and having KL sitting on a negative cashflow balance sheet as well, the perception probably doesn't look good. But if this is true, the sale of KL would free up much needed cash to sort out the debt burden and re-balance the business financially.

Just my thoughts.... DYOR.

I'll be very interested to know who the buyer was...
Could it be our friend Aftab accumulating again?

O r maybe, just maybe, it could even be a Director's buy... we can wish!

"I stand corrected..." said the man in the orthopaedic shoes! Haha...
Sorry. Couldn't resist.
Now let's hope for a good week.

Some hefty buying into the close. A couple of (what looks like) hefty sells as well.
Interesting end to the day and week.

May this continue. Please...

Chuggley - when someone decides to short a share essentially they 'borrow' shares from a shareholder and then sells them, say 1m shares @ 500p, with a promise to give back that same 1m shares after a period of time.
For example, if the share price falls to 100p the shorter can close his position by buying 1m shares and returning those shares to the person he borrowed from.
If the share price rises and the shorter decides to close his position, they will have to pay more for the 1m shares and will lose money.

This has a chance of finishing blue.
A tour-de-force of momentum...

Drawdown - I have worked with Kier many times, both bidding and with senior leadership. They are not inefficient as you suggest - the vast majority of their projects are delivered on time and on budget. They are also not making obscene profit margins and are can easily compete with the best construction companies in the UK (and probably Europe).

Please explain what you mean by inefficient?

Drawdown - because it keeps British people in work. It means we procure British supply chain and the £100bn is redistributed through Britain. It stimulates the British economy.
With CRCC the majority of the £100bn would go to Chinese workers and directly into Chinese economy.

Generally, that’s the point of high cost infrastructure projects - to stimulate the domestic economy.
HS2 is more about stimulating our economy than building a railway.
It’s similar to TARP in 2009 in USA.

As part of the Align JV and someone who was heavily involved in bidding for HS2, the government wanted social value and legacy as much as a railway. I don’t believe that CRCC would be able to deliver as much social value.
I also believe CRCC can only deliver the railway cheaper and quicker by working 24/7 and importing materials / offsite manufacture in China - this would not help the British economy at all.
Also, if the government were to decide to award the whole of HS2 to CRCC, I for one would be suing the government for lost revenue + the £2m we spent on bidding. There would be outrage from some of the biggest and best construction firms.
Also, would the government trust Chinese steel? Would they trust Chinese workmanship?

Kobe - Before investing make sure you do your research and are happy with the risk. Understand what you are investing in and why. Have a strategy.

Kobe - these events are common yes. Especially for small cap companies and startups. It’s a means to raise capital without the Board putting their own money in.
I’d Expect the vote to go through. And the market will expect this also.

The sp will become volatile when things happen that are unexpected - such as David Sefton being voted off board (resigning conveniently before).