Member Info for OilNovice

Kobe - Before investing make sure you do your research and are happy with the risk. Understand what you are investing in and why. Have a strategy.

Kobe - these events are common yes. Especially for small cap companies and startups. It’s a means to raise capital without the Board putting their own money in.
I’d Expect the vote to go through. And the market will expect this also.

The sp will become volatile when things happen that are unexpected - such as David Sefton being voted off board (resigning conveniently before).

BeenUptown - how can it drop 16% on £710 of trades?!

Redhammy.
I agree with what you’re saying bar two things - the BoD are not running out of time. They have just secured (pending approval) £5m of financing are £250k per month. That will pay their salaries for nearly 2 years.
Also, there is increased interest, the daily volume has been higher the last couple of weeks.

My opinion is that they are doing a lot behind the scenes in terms of BD and trying to close contracts. I believe the BoD want to make this a success.

But you are correct that all the hope and promise needs to turn into revenue (not even profit at this stage! Just revenue). Then we re-rate.

Maqsood.
Not sure you have read my post properly.
I am taking the facts from each RNS and then deducing the current situation using assumptions. It is the only way to speculate on where a company is financially without the company explicitly stating it.

I would love ICON to write in black and white their current cash position, revenues, profit and liabilities but they won’t. Not until FY results.

I am trying to give investors an informed and logical idea of where the company sits financially. As this is what is holding the sp back.

You can “lol” and just spout opinion if you want but I was hoping people might engage in more intelligent conversations on here. Sigh.

Maqsood.
The £1.375m Financing Agreement implemented one August was provided to resolve legacy issues and provide money for operations.
We know that WDC had £600k legacy debt plus there was the Deed of Settlement which was to pay off penalties accrued (272m shares or c.£800k at that time).

The interim results RNS at end of October stated they had total legacy debt remaining at £400k.

Assuming they have £400k of legacy debt + £800k of outstanding Deed of Settlement = £1.2m.
Take off 30% reduction = £840k.

Obviously this assumes no debt reduction since October RNS - so may be lower now.
But this also assumes no penalties accrued.

Maqsood - it’s detailed in the paragraph after the one you posted.

“The Financing and Settlement Agreement entered into with the Investor, involves, amongst other matters, the Investor agreeing to a 30 per cent. reduction of the total amounts it was owed under the Deed of Settlement. Consequently, the Deed of Settlement is no longer applicable and all amounts due under that agreement, including the Make Whole Amount, have now been reduced by 30 per cent. and are fully dealt with in the Financing and Settlement Agreement. The Investor has agreed to settle these amounts through the issue of new notes to the Investor, with such notes to be issued on the first draw down under the Financing and Settlement Agreement.“

Regards

I disagree maqsood.
They have stated that £900k of this new financing agreement is to pay off previous financing agreement liabilities (debt, legacy issues etc.).
The rest is for operations and BD.
Exact same structure as previous financing agreement - £600k for legacy liabilities and the rest for operations.

The difference for me is the market reaction. Which is far better.

I know some of you saw the recent RNS as good news, of which it did contain a lot of positive messaging and future potential.
But looking at the financial reality - the new financing agreement is essentially £2m of dilution, £250k per month once approved at GM.

For me, I am really encouraged by the lack of downward sp movement. Considering they have just announced a 66% sp reduction through dilution...
If you remember the announcement of the last financing agreement (£1.375m) which was again about 66% dilution over several months, the sp tanked (and kept dropping to its lows). Overall dropping 70%.

This time, the market has reacted positively. Well... so far... I am still cautious in topping up and will wait until prospectus and GM. But I am far more positive now than I have been since I bought in 12 months ago.

Thanks Jock.
The distinction is that the fund is now technically an ‘investor’ rather than a financier. So they are not just looking for a quick buck... ideally the fund will not dump their shares - but the sp needs to rise and keep positive momentum. Which is all in JQ hands.
I can understand the positivity now.
Hopefully the start of the growth stage of ICON.
Gla.

Redhammy - I also hope this opens up and we get sustained momentum.
You say that you expected the next news may have been dilution and confetti shares, but you are happy about this RNS.
The RNS states that every month the fund gets £250k worth of loan notes that they can convert to shares on open market - and they will guarantee at least £2m - is that not dilution and confetti at a larger scale than the previous financing agreement? Or am I missing something I.e. the price they convert at is controlled?
I am still unsure whether this is bad news (66% dilution) or superb news...

We’ll see on Monday.

Okay. A little more reassured about nominal value.
But does this not mean that instead of £1.375m of dilution (as per previous financing agreement) we are now looking at at least £2m dilution and a possible additional £3m dilution after that?

Always apprecIate your posts.

I must say, the market had 20 mins to react to this RNS and the initial reaction was positive... let’s see what Monday brings...

I truly hope I have misinterpreted the RNS and we get an ‘Edenville’ style response on Monday.
I really really hope so.

So, if I’m reading the RNS correctly:
- they have resolved the previous Deeds and therefore the previous financing agreement has been settled and is now null and void
- but they have entered into a new financing agreement for £5m, rather than £1.375m (guaranteeing at least £2m)
- these come with loan notes that EHGOS can convert to shares on the open market at any time
- every month the BoD will draw down £250k which will likely (in my opinion) be converted and sold on open market by EHGOS
- this involves reducing share price to 0.001p and issuing deferred shares which are worthless
- I presume EHGOS converts at share price of 0.001p, which means each month an additional 25bn shares are sold into the market???
- but they reduced what they owed on the previous financing agreement by 30%... ooooohh

Am I missing something? I truly hope so.
This is horrific news!

I like the fact that Sefton didn't get to quote how good he's done at the end of the RNS...
I like the fact that they mention "The Company will provide further updates around the operations of GSN and its first prospective contract".
I like the momentum the BoD are building and will be topping up next week.

BP - I am a senior bod in a UK main contractor and would disagree with your view on Kier.
My business is £500m+ per year and we are steadily growing and profitable. and we are in competition regularly with Kier.
The perception of Kier within the industry (public sector mainly) is they are in financial trouble. I have had several chats with senior Council leaders who have categorically said they do not want Kier to work with them.
I do not believe they are the next Carillion, and do not see them going bust, but I do see them struggling to be profitable for at least 12/18 months, until they have got through this business cycle and can offload their problem contracts.

My opinion is that there will be further profit warnings, more restructuring, and possibly a simplification of the wider organisational structure. This will then allow for a more streamlined and targeted approach.
Also, when the government 'money tree' starts to flow, Kier should be in a great position to pick up work, but don't expect this to happen until mid next year...

On the other hand, PRSM is exceeding expectations for the good!

Nearly £40k sold this morning.
Who would sell that much?

Haha. I watched the Fyre festival documentary last night... interesting that Bacchus looks very similar to Fyre Media!!!

I sincerely hope not!!!

Themis - I agree that we need to know whether EHGOS will convert or not. Although if they do, I don’t see it being disastrous (mostly already factored in I believe).

If, and it is a very big if, the fund don’t convert and the BoD see enough revenue to continue with the more conventional loan repayment that will see a huge re-rate (proven to be a cash flow positive business).

Let’s see where this goes. Positive start to year so far.
History seems to suggest good news is followed by bad...

Angela - your post doesn’t make sense. Can you clarify.
1-what are the BB expectations?
2-what are the assumptions you talk of?
3-what Gaystar RNS are we expecting?
4-what do you mean by the change in management will be a positive thing over the next 6 months?
5-where do you get the forecast of 0.03p from, what is this based upon?

I look forward to your reply.
Thanks