Member Info for OilNovice

RD - with regards to where the index may be going. Look at what the FED has done, and is likely to do, and that will give you the answer...
Second wave - priced in.
Civil unrest - priced in.
Hard recession - priced in.
Vaccine before 2021 - priced in.
Trump re-elected - priced in.
Q3 +Q4 earnings being terrible - priced in.
20%+ unemployment rate - priced in.

applegarth - EHGOS don't need to buy to raise sp. They got shares at 0.01p and are selling at 0.024p - a very nice profit...

Theanalyzer - we all understand the financing issue and the dilution associated.
The key here is timing. Working out when ICON no longer require financing and have a cash flow positive business. They’ve also stated that at this point there are Institutional Investors wanting to back ICON.
The Board have stated this is their goal, and I believe as soon as they are able to invest themselves they will - and this is likely to be the low.
It is a game of waiting and not missing the opportunity.
Only my opinion.

riddler - in terms of what next?

Not wanting to sound like a ramper (sigh) I will be accumulating whilst this is in the 0.02-0.025p range or lower.
My opinion is that ICON are likely to continue using EHGOS until September at least, so the sp should stay within this range for the next few months, or maybe drift lower.
I believe we will continue to see spikes on news and then selling into news.
Infotagion has likely opened up many doors, but I am cautious until they have approval from Amazon. Fake News is here to stay, and could be huge for the US election campaign trail.
I expect another senior team member to come on board, maybe in an MD or Commercial role.
I don't think we will see any revenue / profitability figures until Annual Report which will likely be published in September 2020 - and I think this will be the spark that gets ICON going.

If everything falls into place, the potential for this company is huge. If it gets to the same value as UniLad then we are looking at a £20m-40m valuation - which is 20x-40x the current sp, though the likely additional dilution will reduce this to 10x-20x where we are now.

Longer term, they may even compete with LadBible, Vice, BUzzFeed and Vox, who are all valued at well over $1bn each...

riddler... let's look a little deeper:
30/03 - 1,485,777,207 shares in issue - EHGOS hold 0%
30/03 - sp of 0.021p = MCAP of £312k
16/04 - 2,041,332,762 shares in issue - EHGOS hold 0%
16/04 - sp of 0.0345p = MCAP of £704k
04/05 - 2,596,888,317 shares in issue - EHGOS hold 13.48%
04/05 - sp of 0.029p = MCAP of £753k
13/05 - 3,096,888,317 shares in issue - EHGOS hold 5.87%
13/05 - sp of 0.026p = MCAP of £805k

[Likely scenario in my opinion]
20/05 - 3,896,888,317 shares in issue - EHGOS hold maybe 5-10%
20/05 - sp of 0.0285p = MCAP of £1.11m

If this stock just kept getting diluted and the company wasn't adding value i.e. the MCAP stayed the same at each conversion, the sp would have changed as follows:
30/03 @ 0.021p --> 16/04 @0.015p --> 04/05 @ 0.012p --> 13/05 @ 0.01p --> 20/05 @ 0.008p

BUT, that has not happened. The MCAP has steadily increased throughout the dilution. Which is extremely positive. We've had nearly 50% dilution from new shares being converted, but seen a 158% increase in MCAP.
And if I'm correct that the new 800m shares are already converted, then we have seen a 62% dilution and a 225% increase in MCAP!

This is quite incredible. And as soon as the financing is out the way and the Board continue to add similar value, this will begin to rise exponentially... Just my thoughts... DYOR...

Going back through the TR-1s and when EHGOS actually sold their shares:

++ 30/03 - 1,485,777,207 Ordinary Shares to be admitted to trading after suspension
30/03 - 65m shares sold (4.36% --> 0% holding)
++ 07/04 - Issue of Equity RNS (14 Apr stated for issue of next 555m shares @ 0.009p)
07/04 - 555m shares issued (25.34% holding)
15/04 - 400m shares sold (25.34% --> 7.09% holding)
16/04 - 155m shares sold (7.09% --> 0% holding)
17/04 - 555m shares issued (0% --> 20.21%)
++ 21/04 - Issue of Equity RNS (28 Apr stated for issue of next 555m shares @ 0.009p)
29/04 - 35m shares sold (20.21% --> 18.94%)
04/05 - 150m shares sold (18.94% --> 13.48%)
05/05 - 500m shares issued (13.48% --> 26.8%)
05/05 - 150m shares sold (26.8% --> 22.18%)
06/05 - 185m shares sold (22.18% --> 16.48%)
++ 07/05 - Issue of Equity RNS (14 May stated for issue of next 500m shares @ 0.02p)
13/05 - 345m shares sold (16.48% --> 5.87%)
++ 19/05 - Issue of Equity RNS (28 May stated for issue of next 800m shares @ 0.01p)

It is clear that EHGOS are able to convert the new shares way before we are even aware of a new Issue. For example, the 500m shares @ 0.02p were converted on 5 May, yet the Issue of Equity RNS came out on 7 May which stated 'admission and dealing of new shares to commence on or around 14 May'!!!!!

Going by this logic, the new 800m shares from the 19 May Issue of Equity RNS are likely to have been converted on the 13 or 14 May, when we had two huge daily volumes. We also had huge volume on 20 May. I believe that the new 800m shares have already been sold into the market and ICON may have converted ANOTHER £50/80/100k tranche on the 20 May... Just maybe...

thtcrazyguy - is now a good time to buy? Depends if you see any positive news coming in the near future.
What are the short term drivers of the company / sp - new contracts, revenue increase, profitability, acquisitions, new expert team members joining, increased viewer numbers on websites...
What are the short term negatives - Issue of equity and dilution from loan note conversion, lack of news, lack of clarity on financial position...

This is a volatile stock and can move significantly day to day.

I am a long term holder, accumulator, and have a very positive (yet speculative) medium term outlook. But many things need to be done here and it is an evolving story. When everything starts to click into place, I believe it will move significantly upwards extremely quickly.

So EHGOS have reduced their holding:
- 5th May they sold 150m shares.
- 6th May they sold 185m shares.
- 13th May they sold the majority of their holding on 13 May, about 400m shares. It was a high volume day of over 1bn trades.
- They still hold 5.87% - 190m shares.

So, will we see a further TR-1 and Issue of Equity RNS soon?
Or are EHGOS now holding a c.5% stake as an 'investment'?

Just for fun.
If the AVCT share price increases by the same as NCYT (which is not that crazy of an idea...) would would the AVCT be...

So, NCYT's 52 week low was 6.00p and the 52 week high was 517.50p.

Translate that to AVCT with a 52 week low of 13.50p and you get a 52 week FUN FACTOID FRIDAY high of 1,110.37p...

Hope you enjoyed this pointless, yet interesting, post!

Mickyc333 - I'll try and clarify the situation.
EHGOS has been the financier for a long time yes. They were brought in to fund WideCells in their stem cell business in 2018. The financing remained in place throughout the change to ICON with the money being used to pay off legacy debts, fund operational costs and acquisitions. Every Financing Agreement has allowed ICON to draw down money in exchange for new shares. This means there will be dilution in sp for every draw down.

The current Financing Agreement with EHGOS agreed in February allows ICON to draw down up to £5m in £250k tranches per month at a discounted price. This means ICON can cover their monthly operating costs c.£125k.
So far, ICON have drawn down £200k worth (£50k in March, £50k in April, £100k in May).
The amount of new shares given in exchange were 555M in March, 555M in April, and 500M in May.
The conversion price for the new shares depends on the sp at the time of draw down. Ergo, the £100k conversion was at a much higher sp so EHGOS received far fewer new shares.
It is likely that they will continue to need financing this year, and in my opinion I would expect £100k-200k drawn down every month until Q4.

ICON has stated that they intend to be cashflow positive in second half of 2020, and will therefore no longer require this financing. But the option for funding will be there. Additionally, the Board has stated that they have Institutional Investors interested in providing capital to ICON once they are cashflow positive - this would be significantly positive for the sp.

With all the new contracts and new people, it is looking very positive, and if they are true to their word, this could be a massive success in 2020. They will release Annual Report up to June 2020 in September, so this will be the target date for me.

comek2 - There is nothing you can do to prevent infection - i.e. if the virus is in the air and it gets into your mouth / eyes / nose / rectum etc. you will get infected. Lockdown and social distancing measures are trying to mitigate this.

What Alastair is saying is that the Affimers bind to the virus and stop it getting into other cells and therefore stop it replicating (viruses replicate by invading a cell and then use all the goodies within that cell to multiply - then the cell explodes and the viruses escape and repeat the process - this is called proliferation). If Affimers can prevent the virus getting into cells in the first place, then the virus can't replicate and will die out.

comek2 - This news does NOT mean AVCT could develop a vaccine.
It is a treatment that will potentially prevent virus infection within the body, ergo prevent virus replication. It could be used to help patients recover far quicker and to stop the disease progressing (i.e. no need for ventilation and high dependency care).

A vaccine is different. A vaccine imitates the Covid virus and causes the body to create natural antibodies. Therefore, if a person subsequently catches the virus, they already have natural immunity within their body to fight the Covid.
Hope this helps.

halfback - EHGOS don't always sell in large blocks. They are constantly selling.
The fact that there were over 1BN sells today, plus over 500M sells yesterday, I would suggest it is highly likely that EHGOS have significantly reduced their 870,000,000 shareholding. Maybe even reduced to ZERO.

I believe tomorrow we will see:
TR1 stating EHGOS reduced from 26% to 15% on 13 May
TR1 stating EHGOS reduced from 15% to ZERO on 14 May.
Issue of Equity RNS for EHGOS to receive 250,000,000 shares for £50,000 draw down

Again, I see tomorrow as being an interesting day.

My opinion is that EHGOS have most likely sold a large % of their holding today. The Issue of Equity RNS on the 21 April stated the 14 May was the conversion date for the new 500m shares. And I would predict that there will be a high volume tomorrow so they can sell more. To achieve this, we may possibly get an RNS tomorrow on 'good progress', 'increased interest in Infotagion' or even a new contract. Then I would also expect TR1s and an Issue of Equity RNS on Friday. The conversion price will likely be 0.02p again.

There seems to be a trend that the days after EHGOS convert there shares (and therefore are able to sell) ICON release a positive RNS. I hope this trend continues this week.

Good luck tomorrow - I feel the next two days could be very interesting...

Today we saw over 1bn in volume. We have only seen this very high volume twice before - On the 8 April and 15 April. I have mapped out the timeline of events to try and understand what may happen this week:
- 7 April Issue of Equity RNS released.
- 7 April EHGOS converted 555,555,555 shares at 0.009p.
- 7 April sp +9%; 121M volume.
- 8 April Infotagion Update RNS + TR1s.
- 8 April sp +120%; 1BN VOLUME.
- No news the following 2 days (sp drifted down 28%); 244M per day average volume.
- 14 April RNS stating new contract with TLE.
- 14 April sp +75%; 546M volume.
- 15 April EHGOS reduced holding to ZERO.
- 15 April sp -35%; 1.1BN VOLUME.
- 17 April EHGOS converted 555,555,555 shares at 0.009p.
- 17 April sp -3% - 90M volume.
- No news the following 3 days (sp +10% until 21 April) 273M per day average volume.
- 21 April Issue of Equity RNS and TR1s released + Increase in Infotagion Readers RNS.
- 21 April sp -4% - 269M volume.
- No news the following 10 days (sp drifted down 22% until 6 May) 160M per day average volume.
- Between 29 April and 4 May, EHGOS sold 185m shares.
- 5 May EHGOS converted 500,000,000 shares at 0.02p. This was the first time they hadn't 'sold out' as they retained 370m shares from previous conversion, therefore increased total holding to 870m.
- 5 May sp -5%; 355M volume.
- 6 May Record Readership for TLE RNS released.
- 6 May sp +8% - 695M volume.
- 7 May Issue of Equity RNS and TR1s released (AFTER CLOSE INTO LONG WEEKEND)
- No news for 2 days up to today (sp -8%); 130M per day average volume.
- 13 May no news BUT sp +10% on 1BN VOLUME.

The selling is most likely (in my opinion) coming from the 'Investor' (EHGOS) who essentially is constantly selling their converted shares into the market. They have converted over 1,500,000,000 shares in the last 5 or 6 weeks. with 500,000,000 new shares this week.

But I believe it is positive that the sp has held up and the conversions are now at a higher price. I expect a very large delayed trade (sell) to be posted after hours today.

Hello.
I believe the large volume today is because the new 500,000,000 conversion shares have hit the market.
From RNS last Thursday "It is expected that Admission will become effective and dealings in the Conversion Shares will commence on or around 14th May 2020".

If we can get a few high volume days, the new conversion shares can be recycled into the market and then the sp can re-balance... Usually ICON release some kind of news to boost the sp. Let's hope so...

bunseburner123 - the revenue and losses are correct. But there are many reasons for this - you will need to do some research to understand - some of the reasons are complex:
- The results were from a period where the company was changing its business model - moving from a stem cell biosciences business (WDC - WIdeCells) to a media outsourcing company (ICON - Iconic Labs)
- ICON is a new business which developed from Widecells (now defunct) - new Board, new direction, new sector, but retained same financier (EHGOS).
- Both companies have used dilution to fund the business (EHGOS) - hence the TR1s.
- There have been several acquisitions which have also come from dilution.
- There has been a lot of unknown debts or 'legacy issues' with winding down WDC - hence the high losses reported.
- Revenues for the new media business are unknown - new contract announcements have not stated revenues (or many other details).
- David Sefton was involved and on the Board - he helped continuation of financing - until he was voted off the Board by shareholders at the AGM. Yet, he still seems to be involved on the sidelines.
- ICON's Board are the same guys that started and made a success of UniLad. And ICON provides a similar service.

Conclusion - this is a early stage start-up that is working hard to compete in a crowded market. Considering they only issued their Articles 9 months ago, they have made significant progress.
The downside is the financing, which although they have secured for up to £5m, the terms are not great for shareholders. And the dilution has been large.
There is HUGE POTENTIAL here. But it is a HUGE RISK.

In my opinion, EHGOS are selling shares every day. I would guess that 50% of sells on any given day are from EHGOS.
This will continue until ICON have a positive cashflow.
In my opinion, again, I think ICON will draw down the remaining £150k from EHGOS, meaning an additional 1,666,666,665 shares to recycle into the market.
And I believe, in my opinion, as long as ICON keep releasing well-timed positive news flow, we may be able to weather the dilution... just...

Candlestick - in terms of tranches, it is my understanding that 'Tranche 1' relates to the first £250k drawdown from the 'Investor' (EHGOS). The conversion price is therefore the same for any issue of new shares from that tranche. ICON have drawn down 2x £50k lots so far. Ergo, there is still £150k of drawdown facility in Tranche 1 remaining.

Once they have drawn down all £250k, the next 'Tranche 2' will have a different conversion price.

Happy to be corrected... ChrisPye seems to be in the loop on this and may give you some more information...