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With that second RNS, it looks like EHGOS have tied up all the loose ends...
My target now in the short term 0.07p - back to pre-suspension levels.
Longer term (H2 2021), this could easily push 0.5p...

GLA

With that second RNS, it looks like EHGOS have tied up all the loose ends...
My target now in the short term (Longer term (H2 2021), this could easily push 0.5p...

GLA

To try and provide some clarity, as there seems to be a lot of new people on this board.

EHGOS has been providing financing to ICON for nearly 2 years. They provide the company money in exchange for new shares. This is called a Convertible Loan Note (CLN). It dilutes the share price - as you will see from the longer term chart! (Others call this death-spiral funding). More shares = lower share price.

The most recent iteration of the Financing Agreement (March 2020) allowed EHGOS to provide a £2m facility to ICON in exchange for new shares, with tranches drawn down by ICON as required for operational expenditure (among other things).
Each draw down by ICON equated to the issue of new shares, converted at differing prices depending on the sp at the time of conversion. You can find these in 'Issue of Equity' RNSs.

Recently, ICON stated in an RNS that they no longer needed the financing and were going to seek alternative financing, as they have improved their balance sheet significantly. There was c.£640k of the £2m EHGOS facility remaining PLUS 6.9bn shares in Warrants. This news caused the sp to spike.
A subsequent RNS was then released stating EHGOS were obliged to convert the FULL £2m worth.
Within the Prospectus released by ICON in March, they stated that there was a ceiling to how many shares and Warrant shares could be in circulation. The grand total was 30bn shares. This ceiling limits the amount of CLNs remaining for EHGOS to convert. But the 6.9bn Warrant shares can all be converted.

So as of today, I believe that EHGOS has nearly reached the limit of CLNs - there are c.580m more. But once these are converted no more new shares can be converted through this route.
And they have been given 4,555,555,555 Warrant shares (of a maximum 6.9bn) - this was the TR-1 released today.
EHGOS are already selling these shares into the market and I believe they have likely already sold 1.5bn to date.

This means that EHGOS has a maximum of 2,925,444,445 new shares available from the remaining CLNs and Warrants.
After these are converted, shareholders will vote on whether we agree to an additional £3m financing facility from EHGOS - which will be a NO. The Financing Agreement with EHGOS will then be terminated.

EHGOS are NOT an investor - they sell every share for a short term profit. This is the reason the share price has continually dropped for the last 2 years!

HFB - having read that clause again, a set-off is essentially a no net cash position (ie creditor amount due = debtor amount due).

I interpret this as the £410k Warrant value must equal the CLN value... therefore if the previous issue of equity was for £350k, that would mean that they must have converted the remaining 581m CLNs at a price that equates to £60k (£350k + £60 = £410k).
This conversion price would be c.£0.000103 ish. Which seems to work for VWAP?!

So, if I’m right, we can expect a final ‘Issue of Equity’ RNS tomorrow(?) stating EHGOS have converted 581m shares for £60k.
We can also expect the obligatory TR-1s thereafter.

Personally, I don’t think the Warrant Shares have been sold into the market yet. I expect them to be sold this week. Expect huge volume this week.

I’m excited :/

To clarify, as of today's RNS and the finance update RNS (18 Sep):
The total number of shares in issue today = 27,073,637,837 (of a maximum 30,000,000,000)
- Of this, the number of Warrant Shares = 4,555,555,555 (of a maximum 6,900,000,000)
- The number of Ordinary Shares = 22,518,082,282 (of a maximum 23,100,000,000)

This means that a maximum of 2,926,362,163 shares can be converted in the future:
- Of this, the number of Warrant Shares = 2,344,444,445
- The number of CLN shares = 581,917,718

Also note that the Warrant exercise price was 0.009p. Higher than the CLN conversion price of 0.007p.

There is an option to draw down a further £3m through CLNs from EHGOS - which the company has said they do not want to pursue. This will require shareholder approval.

My conclusion - I believe that the 581m CLN shares have already been converted and sold into the market last week - I expect a TR-1 notification this week. Ergo, there is only the 2.3bn Warrant Shares remaining to be converted. Then, EHGOS will be out.

Looks like there are more 50m and one 100m sell today.
This must be EHGOS forward selling the next tranche (or exercised Warrants)?!

Let's see how many more large sells we get today / early next week...

ps. In my opinion this is good news. BUT there may be a slight retrace before the inevitable 'Issue of Equity' + 'Exercise of Warrants'.

I have seen several (I think 6 or 7) 50m share sells today so far.
Could these be forward selling of final next EHGOS tranche of CLNs?

Usually, they release 'Issue of Equity' RNS a few days after the selling begins.
Let's see how this plays out. The sooner they get their final tranche, the sooner they can sell...

Reprobus - the Warrants have a 5 year expiration from date of issue (March 2020).
I believe EHGOS will convert their Warrants ASAP as they can be converted at either (taken from Prospectus):
- 120% of £0.0007 [haha - if only!!]
- the lowest daily VWAP from the 15 days trading prior to conversion
- Nominal share price

So the higher the sp goes, the higher the conversion price - ergo, if they convert ASAP, they can sell or hold (if they believe the sp will increase). EHGOS are not an investor, they want quick profit. They will likely want out as soon as practicable.

Just to reiterate, EHGOS still have 1.5bn shares left of the ceiling that they can convert.
They also have the Financing Warrants - 6.9bn shares that can be converted at either (taken from Prospectus):
- 120% of £0.0007 [haha - if only!!]
- the lowest daily VWAP from the 15 days trading prior to conversion
- Nominal share price

For EHGOS to be fully out, I still expect a final 'Issue of Equity' RNS for the remaining 1.5bn shares PLUS 'Exercise of Warrants' RNS. Both likely to be at 0.007p.

My thoughts only. DYOR.

By my calculations there are 2bn more shares that EHGOS can convert. This then takes them to the share issue ceiling.
I would expect to see a final 'Issue of Equity' RNS - maybe today at 4pm - or early next week.
The likelihood is that EHGOS should be able to clear all their shares by early / mid next week.

The sp rise this morning likely reflects this theory.

My opinion is that ICON may also release a further RNS with the final 'Issue of Equity' RNS that states they will hold an EGM to vote on whether to draw down the remaining £3m facility from EHGOS - which the BoD will strongly advise against (as per previous news).

Then next week we will see the real driver of momentum...
- Update on JOE Media Ireland acquisition
- General operations update
- Notice of Annual Report

Weathergeek.
I looked into this a few months back in terms of MCAP changing over time.
Since the Financing Agreement was initiated in March/April, the MCAP steadily increased. There was plenty of news flow to warrant the increase in value.
Looking at the company today, compared to March (prior to suspension + Financing Agreement).
- March MCAP = c.£1.1m (sp 0.07p)
- Today MCAP = c.£2.7m (sp 0.01225p)

Considering there has been huge dilution 1.6bn shares in March to 22.5bn shares today, the company has managed to increase value significantly (nearly +150%). This must be seen as positive. Even at the lowest sp the MCAP was still £1.9m.

In my opinion, this is typical of a start-up business in a high growth sector. I would expect growth of anything up to 500% per annum for ICON - particularly post-covid (and even during covid).

Once the dilution ends, which should be soon, then the growth will be reflected in the sp.

I have read the RNS and digested it now.

There are four key messages for me:
1. The JOE Irish acquisition by Greencastle is delayed - but 'will' go ahead in October. Ergo, our management contract revenue will be delayed as well - but not materially affected.
2. EHGOF has the option to convert the remainder of their £2m CLN facility. They have already converted £1.36m which leaves £640k. Of the maximum 23bn shares they are allowed to convert, they have already converted c.16bn new shares - so a maximum of c.7bn more.
They can convert up to £300k per tranche - so IF they do convert, they need to manage it carefully to maximise profit.
For example, if they convert at 0.007p (as per last conversion price - RNS 8 Sep), they can only convert £490k shares before they reach the ceiling... BUT, if they manipulate the conversion price and convert at an average 0.009p/0.01p, they can convert the full £640k - then pump the price.
3. EHGOF has warrants of up to 6.9bn shares they can convert. This was always the case.
4. The additional £3m EHGOF facility cannot be utilised unless shareholders approve this - the BoD has stated they do not want to us this option, but it will be up to shareholders (whom I would presume also would reject this).

My take on this...
- ICON have shown naivety with EHGOF being able to continue to convert outstanding CLNs. And confusion with the previous RNS. But have now cleared up the mess. Whether this was deliberate or not is another question...
- Today's RNS reiterates the BoD's desire to get rid of EHGOF and find more traditional financing.
- The sp moved from 0.01p to 0.03p+ on the news. This is very likely to happen again once the remaining CLNs are sold into the market.

So what...
Will the recent uplift in sp mean the VWAP is higher and therefore the CLN conversion price is higher?
Have EHGOF been forward selling a further tranche of converted shares the last few days without us knowing?
When the £2m is gone - EHGOF will truly be out.
I see this as a 'bump' in the road. The momentum was strong and I'm sure there will be positive contract news to follow in the near future.
I'm looking at buying in again - but need to let the 'Issue of Equity' RNS drop first and let the sp settle... maybe at 0.009p/0.01p. There will likely be two/three Issues of Equity - they have £640k / 7bn shares max.

GLA

Scottyboy - thanks.
In terms of where the sp could go, we have to assume no more dilution as EHGOS will soon be out so no more CLNs.
Taken from recent RNSs:
- JOE Irish / MM grew revenues by 391% from 2014-2017
- JOE UK grew revenues by 117% 2016-2019

So, growth in the sector for an established media company (like JOE) varies from 35%-130% per year. We should therefore assume that ICON's management fee should scale to be able to meet this growth.
But, ICON are a start-up and will also gain value on future potential growth. This is the hard one to work out - below are the contracts and opportunities they have in place, but I would assume there are far more in the pipeline.
- TLE: Management contract in place with monthly fee + profit share
- Social Alchemist: ICON no longer acquiring, managing contract to be announced
- Fintech company: Marketing and consultancy services contract now worth less than £1m stated value
- MCM: Nothing of material value
- GSN: Data and insight packages pipeline
- Infotagion: Data and insights packages pipeline
- Yoga: Probably finished
- Airline: Probably lost

ICON's business model seems to be a mixture of 'retainer' style management contracts (i.e. JOE / TLE) and one-off campaigns (i.e. Yoga). So growth will be driven by increasing the client base + retention / extension of existing contracts.

As I said before, the three year value could be anything from £5m-£90m+ which would give an sp of 0.03p-0.5p in three years.

Some of you may remember me, I was a LTH of ICON but I decided to liquidate my position after the 'Business Update' RNS on 3rd July. I have watched this company closely since then as I've always been hopeful that they would turn around.
I am please to say that I have re-invested and taken a very large position.

The reasons...
1. The cessation of the Financing Agreement with EHGOS is a big step forward - the BoD have stated they are essentially cash flow positive and looking to get more traditional forms of equity investment / debt. They have stated previously that they were approached by IIs for investment BUT only when they remove EHGOS and have a strong balance sheet. This time is now.
2. Removing EHGOS prior to drawing down the full £2m available funds - this for me is the huge news - I can only speculate why this is the case. Why would they not want the remaining £640k of 'free' money (at shareholder's pain)?
Answer - I believe they have likely got an II investment lined up, probably for a similar amount to what EHGOS would have facilitated.
3. They are likely now debt-free.
4. They have survived through covid - with normality returning (albeit slowly) there has been an acceleration towards online marketing which ICON should embrace and exploit. IF they were going to go bust they would not have stopped EHGOS funding! I think this means they have significant contract revenues / likely new contracts coming very soon.
5. They probably have just over £1m revenue per annum (currently) - with a MCAP of c.£3m. Depending on your valuation methodology and growth rates, that could give a three year valuation of anywhere from £5m-£90m+...

What happens next...
1. I think we will get an RNS stating EHGOS are out AND the company is debt-free.
2. We should then get an RNS with regards to equity investors (IIs or traditional debt financing).
3. I believe the 'deferred salaries' of the BoD will likely be paid in shares - giving the BoD a stake in the company. Hopefully with long lockup periods.
4. We will likely then get a stock consolidation.
5. More contract news and updates on existing contracts.

This will all be revealed in the Annual Report (due soon). The key thing to look for is forward guidance!

Crabby - it may be me you are talking about...
I did say a while back that an FSP for this type of sale could easily go on for 3 months, though anything over three months could be concerning. I would expect the BoD to make some kind of announcement if no news before three months.

FYI - my prediction is 21 September. I think a deal of this size will likely be announced either Fri pm or Mon am.

It is now clear that the Flanks licence approval was priced in.
In my opinion, the rise yesterday, and wherever we finish today, will be the pricing out of the 'risk' of Flanks approval...
That is why we haven't seen a significant price increase, or a 700% rise in sp to match the 7.5x resource improvement.

If you look back at the Tipil licence approval, the sp increase was significant as this was unexpected - and with any other surrounding licence approvals, we would also see an sp increase that is relative to its material value to EUA. Rowka has unearthed several areas that could play out.

The real significance of this RNS is with the FSP - any bidding entity is now totally de-risked for the Monchetundra + Flanks area. So I would expect an opening bid for Monchetundra + Flanks shortly - possibly even this week. However, the bid may not be formalised through the FSP so we may not be informed.
Additionally, a bid for the entire company is unlikely to occur until all other licences have been approved (that the BoD have applied for and are aware are soon to be rubber stamped). The BoD have intimated that there are other licences submitted so we will just have to wait and see.

One that is free, yes.

Hello everyone.
Does anyone know a website with live real-time stock trades - I was using Sharesmagazine but that seems to have the 15 minute delay now... sigh...

Knock - My view, there are several reasons:
1. The AVCT covid test will be a game changer (assuming it gets high S/S and approvals etc.) as it is self-administering, POC, cheap, and likely to be the first LFT to market. The increase this week has been driven by the increasing likelihood AVCT will be used for mass screening - a huge market - not just UK.
2. AVCT have also produced a BAMS test for use in hospitals or anywhere with a mass spectrometer. This is for high volume testing.
3. AVCT have partnered with Integumen to provide a waste water covid monitoring system - this has huge potential across the globe for identifying early outbreaks / clusters.
4. An enhanced agreement was signed for its South Korean partner, Daewoong, to use its Affimer technology in virus treatments, not only covid. The treatment uses Affimers to target and viruses and prevent cell entry and transport stem cells to repair tissue damage.
5. AVCT used the recent fund raise to advance its cancer treatments.

dj93 - the company isn't a rarity. There are hundreds of similar pharma / diagnostics companies across the globe.
It's the global environment that is unique.
I believe the best investors / traders have an excellent understanding of the macro environment (as well as a good understanding of more local ecosystems) so are able to profit from it.
Whether it's commodities, sectors, trends, or good old fashioned fundamentals...

Covid, although a terrible thing for this world, has presented some once in a 100 year opportunities to make lots of money very quickly!

You're better off looking at the macro environment and working out how to profit from it, rather than scouring stocks...