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Regarding valuation, the P/E ratio would be influenced more by sales growth as they are technically still a start-up tech.
If JOE’s revenues were growing at over 100% per annum then you can easily value with a 15-25 times ratio.

As soon as we know the diluting financing is truly gone and we have IIs or longer term investment (BoD or others) the potential here can be realised.
It seems very possible to me for ICON to have a MCAP of £25m-£50m in 2021. Or maybe even earlier.

Wozzer - I think the biggest factor for NCYT was that they were the pioneer of covid-19 test kits. They essentially got the majority of this new global multi multi £bn industry. Almost a monopoly on something that EVERY country needed.
And it was government spending so they could put any price on their kits and governments were forced to pay...

That is a once in a lifetime opportunity.
There are now many competitors and the next big market is antigen screening tests - companies like AVCT.

Femi - my view on this...
- We spiked back in mid Sep solely due to the intention to terminate EHGOF. We moved from under 0.01p to 0.035p fast.
- This was dampened quickly by the EHGOF rebuttal and the obligation to allow EHGOF to convert the remainder of their agreed £2m financing facility plus Warrants.
- We then get better than expected news on JOE management contract (2x fee) + new partnership with Glimpse.
- During this period, EHGOF converted all Warrant shares and remaining CLNs.
- Confirmation of termination of all contracts with EHGOF. But there are unknown debts remaining that need to be addressed with way forward being negotiated.

We knew about the JOE management agreement previously, but the doubled fee was a bonus. I think the lack of upward movement was down to the uncertainty around remaining debt to EHGOF, and new financing.

IF (and it is a big IF) EHGOF haven't sold their 21%, then I can only see the next update on financing being huge. It will likely involve EHGOF selling shares to an II, the BoD, Greencastle, or even EHGOF holding for longer term.
I just can't otherwise understand why EHGOF would still be holding such a large position here.

Playing devil's advocate, let's say ICON decide to enter into another EHGOF-style facility... why would EHGOF not be aggressively selling on the market as they usually do?? If EHGOF thought there was a 'bad' deal on its way, they would sell everything, as quickly as possible...

I firmly believe that the finance update will re-rate this to a MCAP of £20m+. They have the JOE revenue, lots of contracts unaccounted for (TLE, GSN, Yoga, grocers, airline, Glimpse etc...), profit shares, and in a sector that is high growth...
This could easily jump 300%-500% on the update (if positive).

bloodninja - if there is a placing, you also have to consider that EHGOF currently holds 21% of equity at a price of 0.009p.
They will not allow a placing anywhere near that low price... I think that provides us with a catch22 situation which can only be support for the sp where it currently is.

There's no news due or anything expected to be released.
The annual report may come out as ICON's fiscal year ends June.

For a tech start-up, one valuation mechanism is based on revenue and growth. For example, a A start-up growing at 50% per year may receive a multiple of 8 to 12 whereas a company with 10% growth may only receive a multiple of 1 or 2. High growth can really drive up the value of a start-up using this method.
If JOE can grow at 100%, the multiple could easily be 15-25 times revenue...

Once ICON has annual turnover and EBITDA, a more conventional valuation mechanism can be applied.

Wolves2211 - please can you tell me the value you put on ICON and more importantly the valuation mechanism you use?
It would be good to discuss valuations as this is the next logical step for a tech start-up that is starting to create turnover.

With all of the CLNs now converted and all of the warrants converted by EHGOF, surely we are now at the end of the 'Dilution' period... ICON has terminated the Financing Agreement with EHGOF.

I don't believe the daily selling is EHGOF, and my opinion is that the 21% that EHGOF hold is being negotiated as part of the new funding arrangement. This could be:
- EHGOF looking at a more longer term holding
- Directors looking at purchasing shares from EHGOF
- Greencastle looking at purchasing shares from EHGOF
- An II looking at purchasing shares from EHGOF

Alternatively, there could be an equity raise / placing, but as I have said before, if EHGOF still hold 21% (at a price of 0.009p), they WILL NOT allow the raise / placing price to be lower than nominal (current) share price as they would not make their profit...

Why are EHGOF not selling?? WHY?

Hi Tom.
I’m interested to understand more on why you think ICON could be delisted...
- How much debt do they currently have?
- Why do you say they can’t sort it out?
- Why would having debt mean getting delisted?

It’s good to have these types of discussions and fact based / educated debates on this board.
Look forward to your reply.

The wider market is awful today. And there will be high volatility going into the US election (and beyond if Biden wins).
Not many shares today will end up...

If you need some reassurance in ICON, there is a clear trend change starting early September, when ICON first stated their intentions to terminate the EHGOF Financing Agreement. I believe this trend will continue - they have stated no more CLNs.

Also, I don't think EHGOF are selling. There is clearly a lot going on behind the scenes, and our biggest shareholder (EHGOF with 21%) will not give away their shares...

ICON has terminated the Financing Agreement with EHGOF. As in the fund will not provide a draw down facility for ICON.
Any debt obligations must still be paid to EHGOF as a creditor. They will enter into a ‘Debt Repayment Plan’ or separate repayment contract.

In essence they are terminating the convertible loan agreement and starting a new repayment agreement.

EarlOfAim
My two cents on why there may not be a heavily discounted placing.
- EHGOF still hold 21% of the shares. They are not going to allow a placing that jeopardises their profit.
- Any equity raise / placing / II i believe the price will have to be significantly above the EHGOF conversion price of 0.009p.
- If there are very frequent large sells (100m chunks) in the coming days then I will start to rethink my position.

leep1 - from the most recent TR-1 (9th Oct):
- EHGOF hold 6,655,555,554 shares.
- 21.35% of total shares issued.

These were issued on 8th Oct. Looking back at daily trades, the consensus here is that EHGOF has not sold any shares since the 8th Oct...

Just to clarify, current MCAP is (31,173,637,836 * 0.00015) = £4,676,045.

And re share price action today, there were two pieces of new information:
1. An increase in management fee to ICON for management of JOE / HER from £50k p/m to £100k p/m - I believe this is what caused the initial spike in sp.
2. The negotiations with respect of the debts still due to EHGOF - which most likely has caused the ongoing resistance.

Looking at the trades so far today, I still don't think EHGOF are selling shares. This can only be seen as positive news. They WILL be aware of short term ambitions and actions, and will be involved in the next financing solution. If they foresaw a significant sp drop, I guarantee they would be selling their shares...
Read into this what you will...

SevenDragons
I hope I can help. I've been around ICON for 18+ painful months.
I believe ICON has now passed an important milestone with the intention to terminate the Financing Agreement with EHGOF - this was a horribly dilutionary financing agreement which has destroyed the share price. They are able to terminate because the company states it has a positive balance sheet.

In my opinion, I think that ICON will have an annual turnover of c.£1.5m.
With annualised operating costs of c.£1.5m. Ergo, probably no profit (which is fine at their stage).
Their debt position could be zero. Depending on the solution they agree with EHGOF (TBC).
This means you can apply more traditional valuation methodologies to ICON (P/E; P/S etc.).

But the big question now is what is going to happen to the 21% equity EHGOF own, AND what will be the financing going forward???
I believe they will get an II investment or private equity raise - enough to pay off their debts to EHGOF and have cash in the bank for acquisitions. The could happen two ways:
1 - New shares issued by ICON to new investors - with discounted raise price
2 - It wouldn't be crazy to suggest that the II investment or raise will be to purchase shares from EHGOF directly (maybe why EHGOF hasn't been selling?). The price would therefore be higher than EHGOF conversion price (0.009p / 0.01p). Possibly even nominal share price today... I can't see EHGOF agreeing to anything lower.

Other positives:
- ICON didn't need to terminate the Financing Agreement - they could have continued with an additional £3m CLNs, with guaranteed salary payment for the next 2 years! But they did want to terminate, AND terminate early after only drawing down c.£1.5m of £2m.
- They survived covid - if things really were terrible, they could have easily just wound up citing covid as reason.
- They are still winning contracts and adding high calibre staff

Paulcon62
Historically, EHGOS has sold consistently whether the sp has risen or fallen.
As they convert at such a low share price they were making profit regardless.

Funds usually rebalance their portfolios quarterly, whether due to risk adjustment or allocation imbalance. So it is entirely possible for EHGOS to hold now and then be forced to sell at the end of the next quarter (December?) - should they foresee an sp rise coming...

I just find it really interesting that EHGOS are not selling this week...

Why would EHGOS not be selling? Let's look at this logically.
- They are definitely in close conversation with ICON and Greencastle which means they will know what the likely short term developments will be.
- They know that ICON will be terminating the Financing Agreement so will not have access to cheap CLNs in future.
- They haven't sold a single share (In my opinion), and currently hold a large 21% (as per previous TR-1).
- They want to make the largest profit possible - and seem to be risk averse i.e. preferring short term profit.
- ICON are looking for more traditional financing.

So, my logical conclusion is that whatever the next financing solution is, EHGOS are part of it with their 21%. This could be II purchasing from EHGOS; BoD purchasing from EHGOS; or EHGOS holding more longer term.

Also, the delay in news of JOE must be linked to what is happening... This could be a company structural change; possible M&A; or even Greencastle becoming an investor???

I did a MCAP analysis end of June... I've added some more data to get to where we are now:

30/03 - 1,637,129,905 shares total (after suspension)
30/03 - sp of 0.021p = MCAP of £343k
07/04 - 2,192,685,460 shares total
07/04 - sp of 0.0185p = MCAP of £405k
17/04 - 2,748,241,015 shares total
17/04 - sp of 0.035p = MCAP of £961k
05/05 - 3,248,241,015 shares total
05/05 - sp of 0.0275p = MCAP of £893k
14/05 - 4,048,241,015 shares total
14/05 - sp of 0.031p = MCAP of £1.25m
29/05 - 4,548,241,015 shares total
29/05 - sp of 0.0274p = MCAP of £1.24m
16/06 - 6,248,241,015 shares total
16/06 - sp of 0.0155p = MCAP of £968k
25/06 - 6,248,241,015 shares total
25/06 - sp of 0.02p = MCAP of £1.25m
03/07 - 8,248,241,015 shares total
03/07 - sp of 0.015p = MCAP of £1.24m
30/07 - 9,803,796,569 shares total
30/07 - sp of 0.01025p = MCAP of £1m
17/08 - 11,660,939,426 shares total
17/08 - sp of 0.01325p = MCAP of £1.5m
25/08 - 14,089,510,854 shares total
25/08 - sp of 0.01175p = MCAP of £1.65m
08/09 - 17,518,082,282 shares total
08/09 - sp of 0.00925p = MCAP of £1.62m
18/09 - 22,518,082,282 shares total
18/09 - sp of 0.0155p = MCAP of £3.5m
06/10 - 27,073,637,837 shares total
06/10 - sp of 0.015p = MCAP of £4.2m
08/10 - 31,173,637,836 shares total
08/10 - sp of 0.0135p = MCAP of £4.2m

The MCAP has lots of upside potential from here... Different value mechanisms may be used - P/E; P/S; other multiples...
Looks like the market will dictate the value of ICON from here on out.
Exciting times ahead hopefully.

The TR-1 only shows EHGOS holding 6.65bn... i.e. the 4.55bn Warrant Shares + the 2.1bn additional Warrant Shares.
What about the 1.99bn shares from the Convertible Bonds?
And since Tuesday, there has c.1.9bn sold in 100m chunks?

We'll need another TR-1 to be sure...

I have a theory.
Usually, EHGOS is relentless in their selling when they have large amounts of shares to offload. Not today for some reason... Their last sell was lunchtime yesterday. Odd. And they still have 6bn shares.

I have a theory. The BoD will want to buy shares at some point to have a stake in their company. Particularly if they believe it is at the turning point. And they will want to get in at low sp.
Maybe, just maybe, there is a deal going on behind the scenes for Director purchases directly from EHGOS?