Firering Strategic Minerals: From explorer to producer. Watch the video here.
In my opinion, EHGOS are selling shares every day. I would guess that 50% of sells on any given day are from EHGOS.
This will continue until ICON have a positive cashflow.
In my opinion, again, I think ICON will draw down the remaining £150k from EHGOS, meaning an additional 1,666,666,665 shares to recycle into the market.
And I believe, in my opinion, as long as ICON keep releasing well-timed positive news flow, we may be able to weather the dilution... just...
Candlestick - in terms of tranches, it is my understanding that 'Tranche 1' relates to the first £250k drawdown from the 'Investor' (EHGOS). The conversion price is therefore the same for any issue of new shares from that tranche. ICON have drawn down 2x £50k lots so far. Ergo, there is still £150k of drawdown facility in Tranche 1 remaining.
Once they have drawn down all £250k, the next 'Tranche 2' will have a different conversion price.
Happy to be corrected... ChrisPye seems to be in the loop on this and may give you some more information...
Surely it will be the manufacturer / distributor that sees the biggest slice of margin??
Cytiva will buy the Affimer at say $1 per strip (I don't know the actual cost - this is illustrative), the cost to manufacture the kit is another $1. Total is $2. Cytiva then sell at $15 and make a healthy $13 margin...
SO, AVCT will only make margin on the $1 strip sale. Albeit hopefully a very large volume of sales.
BUT, there are also royalties agreed (which is sounds like they will have in place)?? This will likely be a small % of Cytiva profit margin no?
updownaround - it is in the RNS that the 'Investor' is receiving 555,555,555 shares in return for a £50k cash payment to ICON. That is a share price of 0.009p (so far 2x conversions of a possible 5).
If we assume the large trade yesterday was the 'Investor' selling shares, the trade price was 0.026p for 150,000,000 shares. That equates to a c.189% profit margin for the 'Investor'.
Their first tranche was sold at an even higher sell price...
So yes, the 'Investor' IS making a very large profit off this stock.
Tuesday 5th May 2020, at precisely 14:43, this share will 'take off'.
Friday 17th July 2020, at precisely 08:51, this share will reach a peak of 0.773p.
Monday 20th July 2020, at precisely 07:00, this share will no longer exist.
Just call me Nostradamus... HAHA...
(And yes, I am taking the p!ss)
Joey / F458
I believe the conversion price is set for each £250k tranche and will be revised up/down depending on the VWAP at the time of issue. My assumption is that the 0.009p price was the 80% volume weighted average price at the time of issue - just after suspension was lifted. Would be good if someone could confirm / rebut?
Now, I have a couple of questions:
1 - If ICON decide not to issue any more loan notes for the first tranche / month and do not take any further money from the 'Investor', can they wait for the second tranche and revise up the conversion price at a higher share price?
2 - Is each tranche timebound (i.e. the £250k limit expires one month after issue), or is it moneybound (i.e. the £250k must be issued before the next tranche can be released)?
Thanks
I think there is more to it than poor day trading...
This share needs volume so the 'investor' can recycle (forward sell) the next tranche of 555,555,555 shares.
There may have been some manipulation early on to peak people's interest so the 'investor' could offload without crashing the sp.
Maybe some 'traders' willing to push the sp up in the morning and selling at a loss pm... Or maybe it is just nothing.
Just my thoughts.
Bill - you need to take a step back and look at this from the Board's perspective, not a shareholder.
It's the only way of understanding.
Essentially, every decision is a commercial one. With the beneficiaries being David Sefton or the Board. They need to be selfish and ensure they get paid as well as possible:
- David Sefton took over a company (WDC) that had access to a large amount of funding through EHGOS
- He orchestrated the 'kicking out' of the WDC Board, which I believe is where the 'legacy debt' issues are stemming from (a nice golden handshake, ahem :/)
- He saw the WDC company as a vehicle to get an acorn start-up (ICON) onto the main market - and continue getting funding
- He brought in his good friends LH and JQ to lead ICON and develop a business plan / strategy for growth (these guys are clearly the digital / media brains, but probably not very commercially savvy)
- He got their house in order by creating an umbrella company and subsidiaries. And oversaw the winding up of all WDC businesses (plus pay-offs)
- He has let LH and JQ build the business and manage its operations
- Sefton merely sorts out the Financing Agreements with EHGOS to ensure he gets a nice salary (or consultants fee now he's been kicked out) for doing very little
- The Financing Agreements will ensure all Board members are being paid for the foreseeable future, regardless of revenue and contracts
This is all in my opinion, and I also believe that once they start to realise large revenues / contracts and start making profit, Sefton will be one of the largest equity holders (probably through one of his venture capital companies).
Micky - How long before we can be free of dilution? That is the key question :/
I believe it will be when we have enough revenue from contracts to cover our operating costs + enough to pay off legacy debts... According to the 6-Month Report RNS, currently we are running at c.£125k operating costs per month + c.£300k of legacy debt (though this may be lower).
So... if all our contracts add up to over £125k per month revenue, we are good.
I believe we will then get significant interest from IIs who will purchase equity and the Board will use this investment to pay off debt and for BD etc...
The Board will probably also purchase shares just before this happens as well...
We will have to wait until the Annual Report (Jul19-Jun20) which will likely be released Aug/Sep 2020.
Mickey - people were 'celebrating' because the first 555,555,555 shares from the first £50k conversion had been sold into the open market. The TR1s today has confirmed this.
It is generally good news when converted shares have been recycled into the market, as it allows the market to give the 'floor' share price and normally would be the start of a recovery from the diluting effects of the new shares.
Unfortunately here, the Board have chosen to enact more dilution at the same time... hence the drop in share price.
Mickey - EHGOS, the 'Investor', are providing a facility of £250k every month to be drawn down by the Board in the form of loan notes, initially for £2m but up to £5m. These are convertible at 0.009p this month - and so far the Board has drawn down two £50k tranches (555,555,555 shares each when converted).
In my opinion, these draw downs are likely to continue until we are cash flow positive, or have II investment.
Interesting read!
The takeaway for me is this (in the conclusion):
"We need to deliver 5 million tests per day by early June to deliver a safe social reopening. This number will need to increase over time (ideally by late July) to 20 million a day to fully remobilize the economy. Achieving these numbers depends on testing innovation. We acknowledge that even this number may not be high enough to protect public health. In that considerably less likely eventuality, we will need to scale testing up much further. By the time we know if we need to do that, we should be in a better position to know how to do it."
And these figures are for USA only.
Timing works for AVCT (end of May).
As long as they are within accuracy / specificity guidelines this should get through FDA EUA approval.
Then there is the UK market + international markets...
Two II's have purchased a combined 11m shares at 18p (this was calculated at a small discount to the VWAP in early April - standard practice). It is good news that these shares, worth £2m, were taken up by only two II's - shows confidence.
I see these II's as investors rather than financiers i.e. they will not dump the shares when they are subscribed to the market next Friday.
I take this as positive.
Cristal - just to add. The potential rise in SP/MCAP is not only based on fundamentals for these types of companies. There is a large element of speculation here, particularly with the Covid-19 testing. People are clearly happy to pay many multiples of current earnings on the 'hope' that the test is successful and will be a large revenue generator this year.
Retainer contract for commercial management.
Interesting that Sefton is involved - but good in that his equity company is taking a stake in TLE rather than ICON...
I see this as positive.
Pure revenue and profit share, rather than investment.