Member Info for OilNovice

A good morning so far.
A good week so far.

It's about cashflow.
Once the sale is announced, the dividend payment will take months to come through - paperwork, legals etc...
They need the company to drive forward with Rosgeo exploration now - mining in Russia is seasonal and they can't wait for the dividend payment to self-fund this season...

Hi rumbled.
Interesting insight.
My concern is, what if they cannot find a buyer at 'fair value' and the only bid they have is at a discount?
Would we as shareholders then have the choice between a low-ball buyout or potentially a revolving credit facility or 'death spiral' financing??
I believe SAE is not distressed, and should be able to find either a buyer or funder at fair value... there are a few issues to be resolved, namely the Planning decision at Usk...

This could be the catalyst for the next leg up.
Should start to get interesting as we approach and move through Q3......

Since the FSP announcement last year, the sp has moved around significantly.

In the early months, the direction was dictated solely by the FSP and understanding the resources in the ground, i.e. the Tipil licence and MT flanks update. This saw the sp rise from c.7p up to the 17p-22p range.

Then we started to get II investment, the placing at 22.5p (and index buying) which saw a spike to over 40p. Culminating with the WK DFS update.

We then consolidated to the 28p-30p range with the knowledge of WK, MT and Flanks - and a much better idea of what (at that time) Eurasia was worth as a company... this was likely at a large discount to fair/true value due to risk being priced in...

We then got Alexei's sale and subsequent explanation. This rocked the boat. But was short-lived. I believe this added another layer of risk to the FSP which is why the sp didn't fully recover to pre-Alexei sale levels.

Confidence returned with the release of the WK update and Rosgeo agreement - though I think the market has changed its stance on how it values Eurasia... particularly the reaction to the Japan news.
- For most of 2020 and early 2021, the company had been valued solely on FSP (value of full sale with large risk priced in).
- Since the recent Rosgeo announcement and Japan news, I believe the market is now valuing Eurasia at a blended fair value taking account of 'going alone with Rosgeo' and a 'no sale' with a 'long term Japanese buyer'. As in, if the FSP was cancelled tomorrow, the sp would likely consolidate to current levels... c.25p-28p range.
- A sale of assets (WK, MT) will likely now result in a special dividend.

This is my opinion on the strange sp reaction to the last few RNSs released (Rosgeo and Japan).

MrY - surely you mean the offer must be between 147p and 180p :))

mismis - with this sort of comment, we are likely near a market top...
It's scary that people actually think a 200% return is easy or normal...
Fundamentals out the window and everything is on sentiment or memes...

What is a 'boomer stock'?

Maybe the deal is taking longer due to the purchase currency...
Tesla just bought $1.5bn of Bitcoin - coincidence?

UKInvestor / Jolly - you're both right depending on what side of the transaction you're on...
If you are a PI wanting to sell stock - the Bid is MM's buy price.
If you are a MM wanting to buy stock - the Bid is the PI's sell price.

It's a matter of perspective...

B009 - correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought a Main Market listed company needed to put de-listing to shareholders as a Resolution at a GM/EGM in order to de-list, and needed a 75% vote to be passed?
And as the BoD hold no shares, I can only assume this would not be passed...

Also, correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Shard Capital, an II, recently invest in ICON?

B009 - why would the Exchange suspend ICON from trading?
Under what reason / code?

Special Resolutions 8 & 9 needed 75% of the total vote to pass.
This is the problem with un-researched people on this board. Also, why did you not just look at the ‘Result of AGM’ RNS - it’s in black and white.
Instead you decide to spread mistruths and dig yourself into a deeper hole.

I’m all for contrarian views and debate, but lies are unacceptable.

One last question - do you think OTT voted at the AGM? The total votes are c.3bn and OTT has 5.7bn voting rights?

reso
You are just blatantly lying again.
Look at ‘Result of AGM’ RNS from 4 Jan 2021.
“All resolutions were duly passed on a poll vote, with the exception of resolutions 8 and 9.“

What do you gain by deceiving people?
And you have the guile to say I’ve no integrity... Shame on you.

But reso you are mostly wrong.
Resolution 8 didn’t pass.
OTT didn’t participate in the voting.
You (and no one else) foresaw a claim coming from EHGOS or OTT having a dig at the BoD.
And the sp hasn’t got near 0.003p (yet).

You have always been negative on this share. Fine. You are entitled to your opinion.
But your logic is wrong (unless subsequently proven right). You can’t pretend by copying one of your many random posts that you are forthright and superior... it doesn’t help anyone...

I'm inclined to agree that the 1.4bn trade was most likely a sell.
And that is by far the biggest trade I've seen in ICON.

Maybe it was just a spike buy at 0.008.
Let's see where we finish.

Haha... wouldn't put it past ICON!
We're back at 0.008 already...

I think it was a BUY?!

I think this is way, way over done.

IF the business is profitable or breaking even, as the BoD say, then it makes absolutely no sense to wind up the business.
Particularly with the recent placing and funding...
They have a significant share capital.
They have just raised £747k for operational expenditure.
They have access to £1m conventional funding.
They have a large % of equity in hands of investors (OTT, Shah...).
They seem to be making in-roads with good quality partners.

IF they wind up the company, the reputation of the BoD is gone. And I'm pretty sure they won't want that to happen.

IF the claim can be settled out of court (which is likely), then EHGOS are gone. No more dilution.

I think EHGOS have a legitimate claim, but likely for a larger amount than ICON / David Sefton think is correct. But hopefully not for too much - I'm guessing maybe £100k ish.
This will most likely be settled out of court with compromise. We can then move on without EHGOS.

OTT is probably disgruntled because he was not invited to vote at the AGM. I'm certain Resolution 7 (allotting of shares) would not have passed, and Special Resolution 9 (Share buy backs) would have passed if OTT had voted.
There is clearly an ownership issue - though this will not be ICON's responsibility.
Unfortunately, there is nothing OTT can do about this until next AGM, unless he buys a majority stake and brings in talent to replace the BoD... or he sells... but I doubt he'd be willing to make such a significant short-term loss.
One thing this has brought to light is that OTT indeed invested in ICON and clearly sees potential!! Positive!
There was also some other TR-1s from more investors who see value long term.

An important point to consider is that ICON have recently obtained conventional funding and raised c.£747k from a placing. This should easily provide the cash to pay EHGOS (although they may well agree a longer term payment term which would be more beneficial for shareholders and the business - or they dilute... not great.. but the BoD have stated this is not a preference).

Key takeaways:
1. EHGOS will make a claim - it will be settled - the key thing is 'how much and what terms?' - time will tell
2. There are now several investors on board who see a strong business going forward
3. David Sefton seems to be siding with the BoD - so the JOE retainer should remain
4. OTT can't really do anything - unless he sells - though I think this is unlikely
5. OTT could buy controlling stake and replace BoD with talent