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Perhaps the (slightly) refinancing mentioned gives them more breathing space, to capture a better consent, then sell it then. I took from that update that there aren't any notifiable issues on the main contracting side of the business and with the banks working with INL, there's extra confidence, and really importantly, time, to maximise sales.
That's my opinion on all of that.....but again..........it could be that the sale fell through and they're crying in front of their Ipads as we speak......
Depressed share price = share buy back programme hits harder so at least there's a little bit of positivity to all this.
Despite the seemingly chunky purchases......you've got to remember there are 225,000 shares out there still....so to build up a stake holding......is going to need alot more than we've seen, to trigger an RNS. Not saying it isn't happening but from looking at the trades, get the feeling it's one-man bands buying than big corporates. Happy to be corrected on this however/ interested to hear everyone's thoughts.
I can't understand why this isn't moving harder north - some big buys (compared to the last 18 months where literally nothing was being bought or sold) happening.......and it's inching up s l o w l y.....
Just for the record - I'm in at 34p.....so I'm desperate to see the share price rise.....but I try to write from an objective point of view. I take no pleasure in seeing the share price at 20p.
On the landbank STXX; there's a whole host of reasons why valuing it is difficult and why selling it is too. There's alot of cost associated with selling (you don't just call Knight Frank or Savills and they call all their developer mates, there are upfront charges, there's a price to be agreed to transact at (and quite alot of negotiating between owner and agent on that front - bearing in mind that the bulk of an agent's fees are only paid on completion - and the agent is carrying it's own costs of staff, offices, overheads......etc etc.....and they aren't going to waste their time on trying to sell a site that they feel is incorrectly priced......but that price that the agent wants will be, usually, too low , for the vendor to agree at). Information has to be collated, the secure data room created and filled with all the necessary documents - an utter ball ache and time-consuming and then they've got to go and market it, garner offers and then, usually, ask for best and finals after the initial round of offers. Then the winning purchaser has to be vetted before heads of terms are agreed and the actual legals start.
INL may not have enough money (and personnel) to sell even half their land. And that's assuming that land has planning.
It's a long, drawn-out process - not 3 weeks and you've got your money......(as you no doubt know).
So it's back to time. Do they have enough of it to survive til they can start monetising the land bank?
I don't know is the answer to that question.
And that's assuming that the staff aren't leaving.....sorry to be negative but I've been through this (2007-2010) already; I know from actual current experience how difficult and drawn out it is to actually sell sites in this market.
Exactly that Sain. The banks will not give them time, if, as I suspect, the main-contracting business is bleeding money. And as I said before......time is anathema to getting the best price for your land.
I've no idea what Tesa is banging on about - your commentary and opinions have always been on point in my opinion.
The banks will not give time if they smell blood Tesa. I'm sorry to write that........ but there's alot of macro stuff going on in the world.....that Inland suddenly find themselves at the mercy of, because the banks are risk averse where there's obvious material risk. I don't think the banks will be sympathetic at all if the visibility they are seeing (that the shareholders are quite clearly not) shows bad news incoming or continued bad news.
Exactly. The one thing that kills price is time. And by that I mean running out of it. (usually it's to do with Option lengths and planning taking too long and running up against the long-stop date on your contract). But in this case it'll be the banks' timeframes. I'm surprised the share price has only gone to 20p. Thought it would go lower.
They'll have to - it's the only way to give buyers the confidence that there's value to whatever is left. Land values always have a diversion of values between seller and acquirer - they can't say to a buyer....'we've got a billion of worth in the land bank'....the buyer will naturally discount that value and then look at the very real debt......and.....it won't be pretty. So yes, better to sell and pay the debt down (to a manageable level?) and then sell. Hopefully....Perhaps. If we're lucky....
It's the debt, the breach of covenant (and the costs associated with the agreement), and what's left in the land bank once land sales have got that debt down. And importantly - are the people staying or being poached as we speak?
I could see an RSL coming in for it. They've got alot of money, tend to be not very good at single site acquisition (imo) and sometimes they also lack planning expertise. Buying INL, from that perspective makes sense....but the debt......
It's a truly shocking state of affairs.
That is a shocking announcement on so many levels I really don't know where to start......
On Drum and their investing rationale......I think there's some real distress incoming and we'll see some companies desperate for new investment or going to the wall and bargains being had......but they just need to bide their time.
Will look at Correro.....but my interest, at the moment, is in finding companies that are the next solution to electricity storage......crack that, in a properly viable manner (without using up rare-earth minerals) and it'll be a game-changer.....
So an American PE company (yet another one I've never heard of with Billions to play with) has come in for Darktrace. Perhaps there's hope for us, if there's PE money out there looking for more cyberspace companies to acquire? Let's pray for the share price to actually do something this millennia......
I think there's still a fundamental under-supply of new cars (due to the chip shortage, other parts on unavailability - look at the issues with Aston Martin for example).
Lookers have a cracking portfolio (my interest)....hopefully they'll do better deals from now on than that sale and lease-back jobby on Wandsworth.
More on this. I've paid for the land registry title/day notice of the site in question and it confirms that TW undertook a search with intent to purchase in July. My understanding is that the site was owned by both INL (as minor partners) and another company (whom had owned it for over 10 years as I understand it) and that INL did their planning expertise thing. So they took their respective % of the profit and got their planning consultancy fee too. Not sure when they will announce it but so far it all checks out. I don't have the numbers (sale value of the site/planning consultancy fee value) unfortunately. Land registry take 3 months to update things so I can't check that as it hasn't updated yet and the planning consultancy fee is v hard to guess (so many variables). But however you cut it, it's good news. I realise that alot of you think I've got a total downer on INL....but I really don't. I've been invested (and continue to be after a recent purchase) in INL for a v v long time. And I also continue to be invested in Energiser/Drumz too (back in the day Nish and Wicks were directors of Energiser).
I think INL are about to announce that they've sold a site (in Hitchin) to Taylor Wimpey. I'm not sure if Des himself bought the site or INL however. (I've just heard about it and I can't check Land registry). It'll be interesting to see if there's an RNS to come out later today or tomorrow perhaps.
Optimist; do you see the share price moving beyond 19p?
I'm not sure if they apportioned that £12mill when they announced it in Oct 2020 or whether it hits now (and reduces it to £84m as you say). I took the deal to be an unconditional exchange with a delayed completion hence me thinking that it's already been accounted for. Might be wrong however. Most probably wrong.
Agreed - all it will do is change the £96mill of debt to perhaps £95mill. Every little helps and all that. Or does it.
They need a new land sale announcement.......but I'm not sure they've got anything oven-ready that they can actually sell and that people want.
Yeah, the £4mill extra needed to complete one of their partnership housing contracts. How many housing contracts have they got I wonder? I bet that's why the MD went - he's got the list of them in front of him.....and he's looking at the next 12 months and just seeing hell on earth....thinks 'I'm out of here'.....And the construction director (because he'd be getting it in the absolute neck by the Board every day. Life really isn't worth it....so he went too. And that meant that key technical manager, whom left, started to be exposed to some of that vitriol.....so he went too.....
39p feels like the high-tide mark at the moment (whatever happens to the spike today no doubt) for the share price imo.
Others might see it differently - and see that 39p is the low water mark and that 50p is really where it's at. BUT they've still got £96mill of debt.....and I seriously think there are other cost over runs too elsewhere. Interested to hear others thoughts. I'm out of INL at the moment but it's the one share I monitor more closely than anything else. I want to be invested here...but not at the wrong price.