RE: Covenants.13 Sep 2023 09:16
I'm not sure whom was giving them advice or if they were getting any advice at all but part of me feels that the whole share buybacks thing was a way of trying to convey confidence in the business, even though they knew the true reality of the situation…….that the main-contracting business was in severe difficulties, brought on by the economic effects of covid (that no one really truly saw) and land sales weren’t coming through quick enough or profitably enough because planning permissions were taking way, way too long (not their fault - all planning boroughs are pretty much inundated with planning applications and they literally don't have the staff to deal with them in a timely manner.......and they've all realised that asking developers to engage with them early and extensively comes at a cost - in time, money and personnel – of which no borough has any of).
INL were caught between a rock and a hard place – fixed contracts going south on one hand and planning permission costs rising, and the holding costs of those sites rising too because they couldn’t sell a site until a planning permission had been consented.
I can understand the rationale of having the two businesses – each cross-polinising the other depending on how the economy is going but they’ve just been hit with a perfect storm……….that none of us, not even the Bank of England, foresaw. Not sure where it goes from here tbh. Perhaps boring fixed income might have been better (resi units or commercial units rented out). Who knows – it’s easy with hindsight.
From my perspective – I’m talking to a lot of land owners right now and there’s stress out there that’s for certain……….but cheap deals are not quite on the table yet because the stress isn’t at a level where vendors are prepared to meet the actual valuations the market economics we’re in, are currently generating. The banks are picking off the low hanging fruit of course (and thus fixed charge receivers etc etc are busy selling part-built sites or sites in receivership) but I’m not seeing the deals we saw in 2009/2010 yet…… time will tell however. Give it another 6 months (and let’s see how things are after the spring-selling season next year – traditionally a v v busy time of the year for developers). I think we’re in a v short selling window right now and that sales will dry up much earlier than normal in the run up to Xmas this year……and then we’ll see developers heavily discounting to get cash through the door.
Perhaps that’ll trickle into land owner’s minds and their price aspirations will fall too. We’ll see. I don’t mean to be doom and gloom on INL and the market but it’s my career and I’m in it right now; seeing what INL are going through in planning from my own perspective (it’s a horrible, long, depressing, expensive and risky thing getting planning at the moment. So arbitrary in decision making too from borough’s perspect