Member Info for observer842

How are your spreadsheets looking @Tradecraft? Changed any since you last shared?

I like it @EV! Seems wrong, but I like it. ;-)

Ahem. 4x returns, not 5x. e.g. if my shares were worth £1,000 today, I'd be hoping to walk away, eventually, with £5,000. Feels doable, so long as I don't de-risk too early, too fast! Simples. LoL.

@MBW: "Difficult to guess what those who keep saying that they are happy to be buying in at the BOD’s options 29p price will consider to be their first exit price. Observer?"

I'm hoping for at least 5x returns on my holding from here. That doesn't mean my target is £1.50 (30p * 5), probably more like £3 or £5 depending on how heavily I de-risk along the way. And I currently have no intention of fully leaving, perhaps leaving 20% in along for the ride, at which time my opinion may finally change to Hold. LoL. As to when I start derisking, when I believe we are not stupendously undervalued, or above £100m, whatever comes sooner :-)))

All conditional on Amapa coming good of course.

As for @EV's valuation of Sonora and Hastings. If we were offered those values today, I'd be sorely disappointed with one of them and pleasantly surprised with the other! ;-)

Ob.

Yes @tomcat. We could choose to release the $2.5m now and take 20% of the JV, but as I said it would be pretty pointless unless the deal with the banks had concluded and the JV could be assigned 99.9% of DEV shares. In fact it might be quite confusing if we did this, to the courts, and to us shareholders. What would be the point?

@tomcat "it’s a $2.5m gamble", but pretty pointless to take IMHO until ownership of DEV has been transferred to the JV, and that can't happen until the deal is done. So we wait. Whilst the project progresses. Making it more valuable. ;-)

LoL @EV. I still count 7 DEV ships scheduled to set sail in August with 45kt of ore each. 3 pier 1, 4 pier 2. :-)

Courts relegate them to unsecured status - or did you have something else on your mind?

@tomcat: "nobody seems forthcoming with any suggestions on what will happen next…" LoL. Did I nail it?

@iamrich, if the banks pull out of the deal now they run the high risk of the courts relegating them to unsecured status, which benefits us. More delays is more likely than them pulling out altogether IMHO. But delays matter much less now precedent has been set for authorising net $10m a go. :-)))

From Monday: "A separate update as to the operational progress will be published soon."

Anyone else think the longer this takes to be published the greater the likelihood it'll coincide with 20% news, which might even be their intention...

Ob.

AUD$1.67=88.5p

Although Friday is more likely IMHO

White Bay set off and due to dock on Thursday. Pier 2. Dev. :-)

Indeed @Bannor. Very happy to have the opportunity to continue to add around the BoD's recent issue of options at 29p, worth around £1m at time of issue by my estimates. Very happy given all that is unfolding. :-)))) Of course it's a gamble. But oh, what potential eye-watering returns! ;-)

Ob.

Indeed, @Bannor, pretty sure it's bad history that's holding us back now. Which means.... ;-)

Well I can't be certain @Barksy, but it looks to me that they are planning on mining Figure 7 from years 1 to 12, when previously it was from years 7 to 13. Figure 7 is Yangibana West & Yangibana North. We don't own any of Yangibana West, but we have 30% claim over Yangibana North. I couldn't say which end they plan on starting from, but from recall Yangibana North is more economically attractive than Yangibana West. And I would have thought they would have split up the colours into West and North if they wanted to demonstrate that their 100% was going to be mined first.

For those that aren't aware. Mojito Resources is one of our 100% subsidiaries. :-)

I don't think they envisage the plans changing if we don't contribute, just the "economic model would need to be updated to allocate those costs and revenues to Hastings."

===[
JV Ore Feed

The economic model assumes Mojito Resources will participate in the development of the deposits held by Hastings (70%) in joint venture with Mojito Resources (30%) under the Yangibana Joint Venture Agreement. As set out in Table 16, the specific deposits to which the joint venture applies are Yangibana and Yangibana North. If there is a mine development by the joint venture, not only will there need to be a Mining Joint Venture Agreement put in place to replace the existing joint venture documentation and regulate the arrangements between the participants for the mine development, but arrangements will also need to be established to determine how Yangibana production and the tenements the subject of the joint venture fit within the broader 100% Hastings-owned production and tenements. No costs or revenue ascribed to the 30% interest in the deposits held by Mojito Resources are reported in the financial modelling. If Mojito Resources did not participate in any development of the joint venture deposits and the development of those deposits was to proceed on a 100% basis by Hastings, then the economic model would need to be updated to allocate those costs and revenues to Hastings.
]===

Each to their own Folderboy ;-) HAS has a market cap of A$330m = £175m, and we own 30% of one of the tenants which appears to have been brought forward in the mining schedule... :-)