Member Info for observer842

HS has turned up on the radar. And look when it is due in :-)

https://www.vesselfinder.com/ports/BRSAN001

@EV. Can I just say your ability to predict the shipping order before they know is quite impressive :-)))

Indeed @EV. Thanks for drawing my attention to the agency update. Although confident, I'm not as confident as you appear! The way I see it is that they are PLANNING for the deal to close this month, and that this month they are more confident than they were last month when they appeared to be planning for the deal to close, as this month evidence suggests that they have booked ships for the (4) slots. However, part of me questions the AGM date. Typically in business you don't know when a deal WILL complete by but you often know when it will NOT complete by. So IMHO the BoD are either extremely confident it will complete by the AGM (and I mean bar acts of God confident!), or they are in possession of information which suggests that it will not complete for some time, and therefore thought they'd get the AGM out of the way, for whatever reason - perhaps because they'd rather not see investors face to face?

Perhaps I should be more confident given how many shares I hold, but I don't see the point in hiding my concerns, especially since it's very unlikely (impossible?) that anything we say will effect the eventual outcome, and as I keep saying, I'm happy to continue to buy below the 29p options price which I have been doing this week and last, especially when, admittedly mostly circumstantial, evidence continues to build in our favour! ;-)

Ob.

And there it is. There are still 4 named ships for DEV docking this month. 2 p1, 2 p2. Schedules change. Wouldn't be surprised to see 1 or 2 of those slip into August.

It'll be close. Might see a swap...

Exactly @joe. Perhaps I'm underselling what the BoD think we'll be able to achieve, though to me £200m would feel like a decent offer if it came BEFORE a re-rate. An offer of £200m when we are sat at £180m just wouldn't sit right on AIM if the share and its holders still had great expectations of growth, which it should do! Offer me £200m when we are at £45m and I might just go for it. :-)

LoL @MBW, it's only a finger in the air gut estimate of what they'd be willing to accept. I could be way out, perhaps it's £0.5m? But it might be £3m? Who knows? Since I'll very likely be de-risking on the way up, the ideal scenario for me would be for Amapa completion news to land at 16:30, and we have a decent offer for the company at 07:00 the following morning so I don't get a chance to derisk! LoL. As ever, "decent" will be quite subjective. Would I personally take an offer of £1.40 on 20% news? Perhaps, perhaps not. That could be worth the equivalent of £3-£5 to me depending on how much derisking I did if there was no offer and we grew organically over the following years. Of course, any sniff of £1.40 on the cards and we'd rerate close to that, meaning I'd probably be wanting much more than £1.40 at that point! LoL. And of course those that bought above £1.40 and never averaged down would STILL be complaining...

Just idle Sunday speculation. If we got an offer it wouldn't play out like that IMHO, though it would be nice if it did. Maybe I'll sever my internet connections on the day of the news. Hold for Gold/Lithium! ;-)

@MBW, we don't know what the BoD might have in mind in terms of a minimum offer price they'd accept in return for their recommendation. Perhaps they are looking for £1m from their recently issued options, £2m? Clearly it's going to depend on whether Amapa comes good. If it does I can't see the BoD accepting anything less than £2m personally. I make this as a share price of: £2m / 1.8m = 111p + 29p = £1.40.

Ob.

It's going the wrong way! LoL. Better get the seasoned port watchers on the case! :-)

Can't find fault with any of that analysis @EV. CDH should show up on radars soon if it is going to get here on schedule! :-)))

Four named shipped. There are more unnamed in later months...

Hindsight will tell if we were right to be surprised. Until then, 29p suits me :-))))

Finally I can read those tables in the JRP! LoL. This is your hoard to share, not mine.

Found it...

I still think it might be because of the imminent issue of options, or because as you say, they have their eyes on us. When a minnow like us is linked with someone like Glencore, their shareholders pick up on it, and if they see what they like they buy in - look what happened when EMH was linked with Tesla. As @Barksy keeps reminding us we are quite under the radar at the moment! Which as you like to remind us has afforded a great buying opportunity on the back of deep, and I mean subterranean, research in your case! LoL.

As I said the other day, it was either Glencore, or the BoD wanted us to believe it was Glencore. Now we know. Well, now you know. I trust nothing I can't verify myself. LoL. ;-)

I can't remember if you were around when I shared this hoard:

https://www.jusbrasil.com.br/diarios/293628254/trt-8-judiciario-16-04-2020-pg-497

The JRP is at the bottom of that page, which can then be entered into the other link I just shared, when constructed correctly.

Is the bounty under this X?

https://pje.trt8.jus.br/primeirograu/Processo/ConsultaDocumento/listView.seam

e.g. 20012416350764800000023996777

The sceptical side of me wonders whether the BoD purposely didn't tell as they had their eye on issuing options in the following weeks and were mindful of what happened on a previous occasion Glencore was associated with this share :-)))

By the way, I think actual confirmation it's Glencore, rather than circumstantial evidence, is a big deal. Now if only I could find what you have found so I can share it. LoL!