Member Info for observer842

Fantastic interview. Shame about the sound quality. Never fear, I've summarised the (my!) take home points:

"Cadence Minerals #KDNC - Interview with Kiran Morzaria direct from Santana, Brazil" (7 Oct 2022)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RGi738_fmWw
https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/xy5nc3/cadence_minerals_kdnc_interview_with_kiran/
===[
Amapa
* Mineral resource increase by about 48%.
* Expects about a 15 year mine life from the ORE reserve element of the resource (yet to be announced).
* PFS is nearing finality.
* $605m revenue per year at current Fe prices.
* Relationship building with local community who are very keen to get the project moving and increased.

Evergreen Resources
* Lists hopefully in November.
* Expecting a revaluation due to great prospects and locality to Core Lithium's assets.

Yangibana
* Varying exciting aspects because it's already basically coming into production - 2024

EMH
* Waiting to complete DFS. Project financing. Construction.

Sonora
* Ganfeng talked about increasing production to 50ktpa Lithium Hydroxide.
* Not finalised the full study yet, but expect our area to be mined earlier if so, but we need to see the mine plan to be sure.
* View continues to be that our JV licences are still fully valid.

Valuation
* Improved balance sheet when LT&LS (Evergreen) and Yangibana investments are realised.
* Fall in iron ore prices has had an impact on us.
* AIM market down by 45% which we are being impacted by.
* Ultimately Amapa is still sound and the Lithium projects have plenty of upside.
* Rosy future ahead for Cadence.
]===

For the benefit of those new looking in. A reminder of the upcoming news. Lots on the horizon! Kiran sounded quite excited in today's interview for several of our assets :-)))

Short version expected in Q4:
===[
EMH: Feed, DFS, possible offtakers/financiers announced.
HAS: A$9m shares issued.
Amapa: ORE (completing in October), PFS published.
LT&LS: Initial Public Offering.
Sonora: News is increasingly likely.
]===

Longer version - follow the link for better formatting and corroborating links.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/xu6eap/comment/iqwu1wl/
===[
I make the TL;DR on upcoming news as:

Amapa Iron Ore: First right of refusal to increase ownership stake from 27% towards 49% of a project that had discounted cash flow valuations of $1.2B Anglo & $1.66B Cliffs and an initial valuation when purchased by Anglo of $3.2B in 2008.
* Anticipated order of events: ORE (Due to be completed in October 2022), PFS (Due to be published in Q4), 22%/IPO/DFS.
* Shipment of stockpiles recommencing when conditions are favourable.

Sonora Lithium: In conversation with Ganfeng regarding KDNC's 30% JV's.
* Anticipated order of events: Possible sale of some of Sonora to Lithium for Mexico, publication of expanded DFS, new off take/investors.
* Recent events highlight Ganfeng have the funds and are keen to do deals.
* No material impact on our joint venture areas from recent Lithium nationalisation initiative.

Evergreen Lithium: Initial public offering due in Q4

Yangibana Rare Earths: Finalisation of agreement to take A$9m in HAS shares in exchange for our joint venture areas due in Q4

EMH Lithium: Q4 reporting on Feed & DFS, and advancing discussions with government, EU and then with off-takers and financiers.

My Latest valuation estimates and Due Diligence by u/EV-BULL suggest the market is currently discounting Amapa and Sonora to near zero contribution to the NAV.
]===

Even longer version of upcoming news and recent events.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/xu6eap/weekly_discussion_thread_upcoming_news_icymi/

Happy he clarified that the $660m valuation was a balance sheet one, not an NPV :-))) 27-49% of that would be very welcome - but I'm expecting an NPV significantly higher. No indication of when the PFS might land, other than forecasted to still be this quarter. Could be next week... ;-)

Awesome!

"Kiran Morzaria of Cadence Minerals discusses Amapá’s Mineral Resource Increase & Upgrade" (7 Oct)
https://audioboom.com/posts/8170847-kiran-morzaria-of-cadence-minerals-discusses-amapa-s-mineral-resource-increase-upgrade

Proper PFS incoming - 600 pages... :-)))

I do find it quite incredible that Amapa hardly factors into our share price. Fortunately I can't see the "more funding options" being related to it if Indo have anything to say about it - which they of course do! lol

lol @Mer - I thought you might be taking advantage of the small increase in volume to pick up your circa minimum 300k of additional shares (deduced from what you told us recently) top up? ;-)

I'm personally excited for the PFS likely to follow soon, and what these other funding options might look like! ;-)

Let's see what the ORE and PFS have to say if this doesn't excite the market! Wouldn't be surprised to see them next week with an NPV into the billion dollar mark given various assumptions they seem to be making :-))) Remember, the wider market never got to see the scoping study... ;-)

Hopefully becoming clearer to the wider market why this project was once valued at $3.2B - we currently have 27% of the project! :-)))

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/q56bac/comment/hlt8945/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
===[
2008: Anglo acquired its 70% stake for $1.9B (https://www.ft.com/content/395c4b48-5651-11e2-aa70-00144feab49a) and Cliff's noted on page 150 of its 2009 annual report that at the end of 2008 the project had approximately $493m of debt. Meaning on a 100% basis the project was valued at: ($1.9B / 70%) + $493m = $3.2B
]===

"European Metals (ASX: EMH) executive chairman Keith Coughlan at New World Metals Melbourne." (21 Sept 2022)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGVGKlPlSk8&t=172s
===[
We've had a bit of an absence of news flow lately but there are a couple of things that I think we'll be able to deliver to the market over the course of the next few weeks.
]===

"New World Metals - Sydney session 3" (20 Sept 2022)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgogNbI2PLY&t=3389s
===[
We've had a period of an absence of news flow and that's probably reflected in our share price. I think that as we get into the last quarter of this year we'll see some significant change to that. Reportings on the studies that are undergoing at the moment: the feed study and the DFS, and advancing discussions with both government, EU and then with off-takers and financiers.
]===

"European Metals (ASX: EMH) executive chairman Keith Coughlan at New World Metals Melbourne." (21 Sept 2022)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGVGKlPlSk8&t=172s
===[
We've had a bit of an absence of news flow lately but there are a couple of things that I think we'll be able to deliver to the market over the course of the next few weeks.
]===

"New World Metals - Sydney session 3" (20 Sept 2022)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgogNbI2PLY&t=3389s
===[
We've had a period of an absence of news flow and that's probably reflected in our share price. I think that as we get into the last quarter of this year we'll see some significant change to that. Reportings on the studies that are undergoing at the moment: the feed study and the DFS, and advancing discussions with both government, EU and then with off-takers and financiers.
]===

From the end of January:

https://web.archive.org/web/20220129202357/http://www.ganfenglithium.com/aboutz_en/id/5.html
===[
the annual lithium carbonate production capacity after the first phase of the project is put into operation is 17,500 tons.
]===

And now...

http://www.ganfenglithium.com/aboutz_en/id/5.html
===[
The capacity of phase I is expected to be 50000 tons of lithium hydroxide.
]===

Something's brewing...

Good spot @Fingers. $450m will go a long way :-) Aligns with:

"New World Metals - Sydney session 3" (20 Sept 2022)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgogNbI2PLY&t=3389s
===[
We've had a period of an absence of news flow and that's probably reflected in our share price. I think that as we get into the last quarter of this year we'll see some significant change to that. Reportings on the studies that are undergoing at the moment: the feed study and the DFS, and advancing discussions with both government, EU and then with off-takers and financiers.
]===

According to google was updated today...

http://www.ganfenglithium.com/aboutz_en/id/5.html

@Bannor: "So yes, absolutely time for a top up." Absolutely. Managed to get some in the 9's last week. Hopefully at the bottom, similar to the 3p bottom we both managed to scoop several years back. 3 to 30p was nice, I'm anticipating at least 9p to £1 this time should Amapa and Sonora play out as I'm hoping :-)) And that will be just the beginning if so! ;-)

$77.5/kg to $80/kg in a single bound.

https://www.lme.com/en/metals/ev/lme-lithium-hydroxide-cif-fastmarkets-mb#Price+graph

Wow! $77.5/kg to $80/kg in a single bound.

https://www.lme.com/en/metals/ev/lme-lithium-hydroxide-cif-fastmarkets-mb#Price+graph

Short version of upcoming news expected in Q4:

===[
EMH: Feed, DFS, possible offtakers/financiers announced.
HAS: A$9m shares issued.
Amapa: MRE, ORE (completing in October), PFS published.
LT&LS: Initial Public Offering.
Sonora: News is increasingly likely.
]===

Longer version - follow the link for better formatting and corroborating links.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/xu6eap/comment/iqwu1wl/
===[
I make the TL;DR on upcoming news as:

Amapa Iron Ore: First right of refusal to increase ownership stake from 27% towards 49% of a project that had discounted cash flow valuations of $1.2B Anglo & $1.66B Cliffs and an initial valuation when purchased by Anglo of $3.2B in 2008.
* Anticipated order of events: MRE/ORE (Due to be completed in October 2022), PFS (Due to be published in Q4), 22%/IPO/DFS.
* Shipment of stockpiles recommencing when conditions are favourable.

Sonora Lithium: In conversation with Ganfeng regarding KDNC's 30% JV's.
* Anticipated order of events: Possible sale of some of Sonora to Lithium for Mexico, publication of expanded DFS, new off take/investors.
* Recent events highlight Ganfeng have the funds and are keen to do deals.
* No material impact on our joint venture areas from recent Lithium nationalisation initiative.

Evergreen Lithium: Initial public offering due in Q4

Yangibana Rare Earths: Finalisation of agreement to take A$9m in HAS shares in exchange for our joint venture areas due in Q4

EMH Lithium: Q4 reporting on Feed & DFS, and advancing discussions with government, EU and then with off-takers and financiers.

My Latest valuation estimates and Due Diligence by u/EV-BULL suggest the market is currently discounting Amapa and Sonora to near zero contribution to the NAV.
]===

Even longer version of upcoming news and recent events.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/xu6eap/weekly_discussion_thread_upcoming_news_icymi/

Since it's now Q4 here's a reminder of what's on the cards in the run up to year end.

"New World Metals - Sydney session 3" (20 Sept 2022)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgogNbI2PLY&t=3389s
===[
We've had a period of an absence of news flow and that's probably reflected in our share price. I think that as we get into the last quarter of this year we'll see some significant change to that. Reportings on the studies that are undergoing at the moment: the feed study and the DFS, and advancing discussions with both government, EU and then with off-takers and financiers.
]===

Is it October yet? "The updated MRE and ORE are both due for completion in October 2022."