Member Info for observer842

Indeed @jimb as we speculated many years ago, and came to pass in the end, the BoD are very unlikely to let the Sonora JV's go for any less than will realise their options! Last time it meant waiting (the options expired in the end), this time? The market seems to think more waiting or a poor deal from what I can see... I've got a very decent stake here that begs to differ. Let's see ;-)

https://youtu.be/WgogNbI2PLY?t=2932
"...so I'm suggesting that we might get a rerate sometime soon"

feels imminent, as in eminently imminent. Lots on our plate to look forward to landing:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/x640cj/weekly_discussion_thread_upcoming_news_icymi/

Great news! "Lithium and rare earths are already replacing gas and oil at the heart of our economy."

Indeed @Zoom. "they seek to invest large sums in the state to strengthen their presence and control the Bacadehuachi deposit, which has the potential to be one of the largest in the world." To spell it out to those not familiar/paying attention, the Bacadéhuachi deposit is the Sonora Lithium project in which we hold a SUBSTANTIAL fraction of the reserves and resources:

https://www.cadenceminerals.com/projects/sonora-lithium-project/

LoL @Bannor. You know AIM right? Fear and greed make it quite unpredictable in the short to medium term. Been buying last week so I'm well and truly loaded now, will now have to drop below 8-9p for me to add more (all else being equal of course). Expecting news very soon, as I'm sure most of those who have DYOR are ;-) The market not appreciating what is happening in Sonora is quite mind boggling IMHO. lol. And then there is Amapa, EMH, Evergreen, HAS. Have I missed anything? For those new or wanting a reminder, take a look at my summary:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/xc0b3j/comment/io3ka6o/
===[
I make the TL;DR on upcoming news as:

Amapa Iron Ore: First right of refusal to increase ownership stake from 27% towards 49% of a project that had discounted cash flow valuations of $1.2B Anglo & $1.66B Cliffs and an initial valuation when purchased by Anglo of $3.2B in 2008.

Anticipated order of events: MRE, PFS, 22%, IPO/DFS.

Shipment of stockpiles recommencing when conditions are favourable.

Sonora Lithium: In conversation with Ganfeng regarding KDNC's 30% JV's. Details on Ganfeng's optimisation and expansion ambitions and potential impact on KDNC of massively increased stage 1 plans to 50ktpa of Lithium hydroxide and beyond forthcoming, including strategic OEM investments, and consequences of recent nationalisation votes.

Anticipated order of events: Sale of some of Sonora to Lithium for Mexico, publication of expanded DFS, new off take/investors.

Recent events highlight Ganfeng have the funds and are keen to do deals.

Evergreen Lithium: Initial public offering.

Yangibana Rare Earths: Finalisation of agreement to take A$9m in HAS shares in exchange for our joint venture areas.

EMH Lithium: DFS/partner/offtake/funding announcements for phase 1 of the project.

My Latest valuation estimates and Due Diligence by u/EV-BULL suggest the market is currently discounting Amapa and Sonora to near zero contribution to the NAV.
]===

We've got a lot on our plate, and it's starting to feel imminent, imminent now. Lol.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/xc0b3j/weekly_discussion_thread_upcoming_news_icymi/

The penny will drop at some point @jimb, hopefully turning to a pound as it does so ;-)

It's incredible how much upcoming news we have in the pipeline. Don't keep us on tenterhooks for too much longer @Kiran!

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/x640cj/weekly_discussion_thread_upcoming_news_icymi/
https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/x640cj/comment/in5o228/

Indeed @Mullins. That was yesterday, today just closed strong too, and lithium prices continue to rise...

http://www.dce.com.cn/webquote/futures_quote_en.jsp?varietyid=I
https://www.lme.com/en/metals/ev/lme-lithium-hydroxide-cif-fastmarkets-mb#Price+graph

And lithium prices continue to rise. Exciting times! Though perhaps not shared by most according to our share price...

https://www.lme.com/en/metals/ev/lme-lithium-hydroxide-cif-fastmarkets-mb#Price+graph

Indeed @Bannor - it's as if some can't see, or don't believe what might be about to happen. Lol ;-) Sonora...

Under the radar...

For the benefit of those new looking in, and for those who aren't closely keeping track! Follow the link for better formatting, corroborating links and much more information!

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/x640cj/weekly_discussion_thread_upcoming_news_icymi/
===[
I make the TL;DR on upcoming news as:

Amapa Iron Ore: First right of refusal to increase ownership stake from 27% towards 49% of a project that had discounted cash flow valuations of $1.2B Anglo & $1.66B Cliffs and an initial valuation when purchased by Anglo of $3.2B in 2008.

Anticipated order of events: MRE, PFS, 22%, IPO/DFS.

Shipment of stockpiles recommencing when conditions are favourable.

Sonora Lithium: In conversation with Ganfeng regarding KDNC's 30% JV's. Details on Ganfeng's optimisation and expansion ambitions and potential impact on KDNC of massively increased stage 1 plans to 50ktpa of Lithium hydroxide and beyond forthcoming, including strategic OEM investments, and consequences of recent nationalisation votes.

Anticipated order of events: Sale of some of Sonora to Lithium for Mexico, publication of expanded DFS, new off take/investors.

Recent events highlight Ganfeng have the funds and are keen to do deals.

Evergreen Lithium: Initial public offering.

Yangibana Rare Earths: Finalisation of agreement to take A$9m in HAS shares in exchange for our joint venture areas.

EMH Lithium: DFS/partner/offtake/funding announcements for phase 1 of the project.

My Latest valuation estimates and Due Diligence by u/EV-BULL suggest the market is currently discounting Amapa and Sonora to near zero contribution to the NAV.
]===

Just closed up around 4%:

http://www.dce.com.cn/webquote/futures_quote_en.jsp?varietyid=I

Shipping continues to fall. :-)

https://en.stockq.org/index/BHI.php
https://en.stockq.org/index/BSI.php

Indeed @Zoom. 18.58% is pretty large, but if they decide to start up another $1-2B NPV mine fully on the JV area to the South, which IMHO is a distinct possibility, then we are (obviously) talking 30% attributable to KDNC. :-)

Indeed @jimb. I can see nothing in the press that connects us with Ganfeng or Sonora that hasn't come from us or our associates. There's going to be a bit of a wake-up call when the wider market realises just how deeply involved little ol' KDNC is with these giants of the Lithium world.

18.58% of the Sonora Lithium project RESERVES are associated with us.

https://www.cadenceminerals.com/projects/sonora-lithium-project/
https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/vpr5w7/due_diligence_lsekdnc_cadence_minerals_asset/

Feels to me like the politics is "playing out", and from what I can see, quite favourably! :-)

As ever with this share it's impossible to know when news might land, but it certainly feels like we'll hear something on the Sonora front within a couple of months, but it could be as soon as next week!

Ob.

Lithium prices continuing to rise - https://www.lme.com/en/metals/ev/lme-lithium-hydroxide-cif-fastmarkets-mb#Price+graph

The potential value for our Sonora assets are truly eye-watering! Yes. Potential.

Ob.

Up: https://www.lme.com/en/metals/ev/lme-lithium-hydroxide-cif-fastmarkets-mb#Price+graph

LoL @Bannor - pretty sure various news is well overdue! Imminent even. Tempted to add more if we dip again - the risk to reward ratio is pretty mind boggling at the moment, as I'm sure anyone who has done their research will no doubt realise! ;-) Both eyes firmly on Sonora at the moment, I'm expecting our BoD won't accept any deals that won't immediately put their 29p options in the money. Of course Amapa MRE/PFS/shipping recommencing could land at any point. Not to mention EMH deal or HAS completion. Don't think I've ever been so excited and yet, trying to keep my calm, and hand out of my pockets, I've MORE than enough share of the company already! ;-)