Member Info for observer842

Absolutely agree @Zoom. We are on the same page. Fairly obvious to me that most LTH's here, those that actually understand the company, are fairly fully loaded. We need new investors to "get it". A decent RNS will do that IMHO, or some meme like momentum from those understanding the consequences of the news what is coming out of Mexico. ;-)

In case it's not obvious to those new looking in, whatever the Mexican government "buy out existing additional rights held by UK exploration giant Bacanora." (Ganfeng in practice), we stand to realise nearly half that total (70/30). :-)))

You've nailed it @Zoom. Question I have, this is AIM, does the Mexican news count as a "leak"?;-) I'm fully packed and ready to ride! :-)))

Or we wait for the updated Ganfeng DFS and the sky is the limit ;-)

Circa £100m would be "fair" for everything at this point based on recent Ganfeng transactions. See this post and the comments:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/vpr5w7/due_diligence_lsekdnc_cadence_minerals_asset/

Thanks @Zoom! I personally find it incredible that we aren't much, MUCH higher on the Sonora potential alone, and I bet the BoD are scratching their heads on that one too. It truly is an odd one I'm putting down to not enough Reach and Understanding from those who are Reached. I mean, all of us on here Understand what might be coming right? Right!? lol. OK, we might all Understand, but perhaps we don't Believe our BoD can deliver on this potential? There's the RUB! ;-)

I'm happy to be fully locked and loaded at this SP. :-))) For those wanting to do your own research, my analysis for those new to KDNC can be found at:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/vpr5w7/due_diligence_lsekdnc_cadence_minerals_asset/

Very happy all resolutions passed. :-)))

For the benefit of those new looking in - no change from last week. Follow the link for better formatting, corroborating links and much more.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/wiwi98/weekly_discussion_thread_upcoming_news_icymi/
===[
I make the TL;DR on upcoming news as:

Amapa Iron Ore: First right of refusal to increase ownership stake from 27% towards 49% of a project that had discounted cash flow valuations of $1.2B Anglo & $1.66B Cliffs and an initial valuation when purchased by Anglo of $3.2B in 2008.

Anticipated order of events: MRE, PFS, 22%, IPO/DFS.

Shipment of stockpiles recommencing when conditions are favourable.

Sonora Lithium: In conversation with Ganfeng regarding KDNC's 30% JV's. Details on Ganfeng's optimisation and expansion ambitions and potential impact on KDNC of massively increased stage 1 plans to 50ktpa of Lithium hydroxide and beyond forthcoming, including strategic OEM investments, and consequences of recent nationalisation votes.

Anticipated order of events: Confirmation Lithium tenements are valid, publication of expanded DFS, new off take/investors.

Recent events highlight Ganfeng have the funds and are keen to do deals.

Evergreen Lithium: Initial public offering.

Yangibana Rare Earths: Finalisation of agreement to take A$9m in HAS shares in exchange for our joint venture areas.

EMH Lithium: DFS/partner/offtake/funding announcements for phase 1 of the project.

My Latest valuation estimates and Due Diligence by u/EV-BULL suggest the market is currently discounting Amapa and Sonora to near zero contribution to the NAV.
]===

Indeed @EV. I suspect many here have their full allocation above 10p. I know I have now :-))) All else being equal, I'll dip into my pocket if we fall into the 8-10p range for sufficiently long.

If you haven't seen it, take a look at:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/vpr5w7/due_diligence_lsekdnc_cadence_minerals_asset/

for my go at valuing our 30% Sonora JV from various angles.

"OVERSEAS REGULATORY ANNOUNCEMENT" (August 9, 2022)
http://www.ganfenglithium.com/ir_detail_en/id/2539.html
===[
Recently, the Company received a notice from Shanghai Ganfeng that Shanghai Ganfeng has completed the offer to Bacanora. Shanghai Ganfeng now holds 100% equity interest of Bacanora.
]===

I wonder who might be next...? ;-)

"OVERSEAS REGULATORY ANNOUNCEMENT" (August 9, 2022)
http://www.ganfenglithium.com/ir_detail_en/id/2539.html
===[
Recently, the Company received a notice from Shanghai Ganfeng that Shanghai Ganfeng has completed the offer to Bacanora. Shanghai Ganfeng now holds 100% equity interest of Bacanora.
]===

839kt LCE of Lithium RESERVES...

https://www.cadenceminerals.com/projects/sonora-lithium-project/

Indeed @jimb, pretty clear by now that our Sonora JV's will be required sooner and in greater volume than was envisaged over 4.5 years ago... 4.5 years! Anticipated order of events: Confirmation Lithium tenements are valid, publication of expanded DFS, new off take/investors.

@Bannor. You and the rest of the market want to be spoon fed by RNS's - be my guest. lol. No chance anyone is getting in with significant volume anywhere near these prices when THAT RNS lands. ;-)

The more I hear from EV companies accepting that Lithium supply is now critical, the more I scratch my head on why the average "we" aren't placing much, if any, value in our 30% Sonora JV, when a stage 2 50ktpa Lithium Hydroxide sitting 100% on our JV lands feels more likely as each day passes!

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/wdul56/lightning_lithium_battery_materials_a_ford_ability/

Wonder what it will take for that to change...?

Ob

For the benefit of those new looking in - no change from last week. Follow the link for better formatting, corroborating links and much more.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/wd5bvy/weekly_discussion_thread_upcoming_news_icymi/
===[
I make the TL;DR on upcoming news as:

Amapa Iron Ore: First right of refusal to increase ownership stake from 27% towards 49% of a project that had discounted cash flow valuations of $1.2B Anglo & $1.66B Cliffs and an initial valuation when purchased by Anglo of $3.2B in 2008.

Anticipated order of events: MRE, PFS, 22%, IPO/DFS.

Shipment of stockpiles recommencing when conditions are favourable.

Sonora Lithium: In conversation with Ganfeng regarding KDNC's 30% JV's. Details on Ganfeng's optimisation and expansion ambitions and potential impact on KDNC of massively increased stage 1 plans to 50ktpa of Lithium hydroxide and beyond forthcoming, including strategic OEM investments, and consequences of recent nationalisation votes.

Anticipated order of events: Confirmation Lithium tenements are valid, publication of expanded DFS, new off take/investors.

Recent events highlight Ganfeng have the funds and are keen to do deals.

Evergreen Lithium: Initial public offering.

Yangibana Rare Earths: Finalisation of agreement to take A$9m in HAS shares in exchange for our joint venture areas.

EMH Lithium: DFS/partner/offtake/funding announcements for phase 1 of the project.

My Latest valuation estimates and Due Diligence by u/EV-BULL suggest the market is currently discounting Amapa and Sonora to near zero contribution to the NAV.
]===

Pretty much confirms to me if @Dallas wasn't aware of this, then I reckon most others won't be! Market is blind to what's coming... IMHO of course. lol.

Nice to see it confirmed in multiple places @jimb. :-)))

http://www.ganfenglithium.com/aboutz_en/id/5.html
===[
The capacity of phase I is expected to be 50000 tons of lithium hydroxide.
]===

Keep up Dallas ;-)

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/tswuyl/ganfeng_annual_report_presentation_sonora_phase_1/
https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2022/0331/2022033100303.pdf
===[
Phase I production capacity of 50,000 tons of lithium hydroxide
]===

and compare it with "Figure 15.1: North and South Mineral Reserve Pits" on page 107 of the Sonora PFS:

https://bacanoralithium.com/_userfiles/pages/files/documents/technicalreportontheprefeasibilitystudyforthesonoralithiumprojectmexico_compressed.pdf

If you have been following the story closely, IMHO an expansion from the 19 year 17.5ktpa/35ktpa LCE to two 50ktpa Hydroxide operations brings our JV into play MUCH sooner than the market recognises. The signs are there. Take a read of the Sonora section in the weekly update:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/w7cbvb/weekly_discussion_thread_upcoming_news_icymi_july/

and have another listen to what Kiran had to say recently:

"Investor Presentation and Q&A with Cadence Minerals CEO, Kiran Morzaria" (1 Jul 2022)
https://youtu.be/cu1u90A2BDA?t=2453
===[
Q
Second question, related to Ganfeng. They've recently said that they plan to produce 50,000 tonnes of hydroxide from phase one of the project how does that affect your mining plans in your areas?

A
So we base what we have as on a document - They haven't completed a Definitive Feasibility Study on this plan. Our understanding is that they will be embarking on this to prove that they can do it, and that they can deliver Lithium Hydroxide, which I certainly believe they can from this ore. And then what the mining plan looks like? If the mining plan would follow the same logics and economics as the DFS did, then what would happen is that our area would get mined earlier because suddenly you're not doing 35,000 tons of lithium carbonate a year, you're doing 50,000 tonnes of lithium hydroxide so you would see our area come forward in the mine plan and therefore would have a far higher value because the NPV would increase.
]===

and that is just phase 1!

Ob