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And optimistically @Bannor? PFS published end of July. Kiran said it's only "sometimes" you change project managers between PFS and DFS, (up to 3 months if you do, but assume 0 as we are considering the optimist take, and perhaps we are happy with their work and relationship with us), and then 9 months for the DFS to be published. Meaning, optimistically we could see the DFS published end of April 2023. Optimistically financing the following month or two, meaning reconstruction and recommission at the end of 2023H1. Optimistically! As per the presentation slide. lol. In practice? Seems unlikely to me, but perhaps there is more agreements made behind the scenes than we know (and those who have read the various court documents might remember financing was discussed as part of the JRP), and we are going through the motions now!? I've got a spare pare of these lovely rose tinted glasses if you want some? lol.

In practice I think the MRE might stir the market and the PFS awaken it at which point the question of the 22% comes to the fore! :-)

As to my valuations, I'd like to make it clear that those outlined:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/vpr5w7/due_diligence_lsekdnc_cadence_minerals_asset/

are based on events generally panning out for us. As you well know they may not, meaning previous estimates I and others have made, e.g. estimates of Yangibana value to us have not come to fruition as HAS decided to focus on their areas first due to better economics for the project and them. It's completely possible that Ganfeng will abandon Sonora or simply decided to stick to the 17.5/35ktpa DFS plan. I can't see it happening, but if so, Sonora remains only worth low double digits to us. Personally think they'll go 50/100ktpa Lithium Hydroxide and if they do, unlike in Yangibana we've go them completely surrounded which means expansion WILL be into our JV areas, and value will very likely out! :-))) If so, I would have thought it's in their interest to strike a deal BEFORE they officially announce their expansion plans. So IMHO news on that front could land any day...

Ob

Yes @Bannor $3.2B - seemingly the wider market doesn't appear to be aware of the historical value, just those who have done their research:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/q56bac/comment/hlt8945/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
===[
2008: Anglo acquired its 70% stake for $1.9B (https://www.ft.com/content/395c4b48-5651-11e2-aa70-00144feab49a) and Cliff's noted on page 150 of its 2009 annual report (https://www.clevelandcliffs.com/investors/sec-filings/annual-reports/content/9999999997-10-008315/9999999997-10-008315.pdf) that at the end of 2008 the project had approximately $493m of debt. Meaning on a 100% basis the project was valued at: ($1.9B / 70%) + $493m = $3.2B
]===

As I say, the potential of this project, especially with updated MRE's and Cape Size vessels at the private port is extremely underappreciated IMHO. Never seen anything like it in fact...

Ob.

MRE update first, which I got the impression is pretty much ready to be released. In terms of the PFS, I'm looking forward to hearing what this does to the economics!

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/vqwl7w/weekly_discussion_thread_upcoming_news_icymi_july/
===[
PFS suggests half loading cape size at private port will lower shipping costs when in full production.
]===

We know that when Anglo first bought 70% of Amapa valuing it at circa $3.2m they had designs on large vessels coming to the private port, but this never panned out for them - the $171m of profits in 2011 was using Handymax vessels. It wasn't until in the second half of 2022 they started transshipment of these at Trinidad and Tobago, but operations paused shortly afterwards. We are talking about half loading a Cape Size at the private port and fully filling it near by!!! :-)))

This is big news. Market blind to the value of Amapa IMHO. A well circulated PFS should hopefully see an end to that. Very happy with recent purchases and will continue to add below 10p ;-)

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/q56bac/anglo_american_annual_reports_detailing_the/

Does this agreement still stand?

"Volkswagen, Ganfeng sign lithium supply MoU" (April 5, 2019)
https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/volkswagen-ganfeng-sign-lithium-supply-mou
===[
Volkswagen Group has signed an MoU for the long-term supply of lithium for battery cells with lithium producer Ganfeng Lithium

The agreement establishes that Ganfeng will supply Volkswagen Group and its suppliers for 10 years.
]===

If so, yesterday's news is directly applicable to Sonora! :-)))

"Volkswagen just supercharged its battery push"

It's finally happening. The world is waking up to there's not gunna be enough lithium. lol. This really is fantastic news for us. Will add significant demand value to our Sonora JV's!

Oh, very nice @jimb! Seems like the VW news is sinking in with EMH up 9% overnight. Brace for news! ;-)

Great news @Fingers. Stand by!

"try(!)" @Bannor - try. They've had enough practice at it, maybe they'll succeed this time!? lol

Indeed @Bannor, my views change with the times... Optionality is key here. Once the PFS is published @Kiran said we can be more public with the decision to take the 22% or instead find a partner to take it. So yeah, flip flop, flip flop. lol. Would I want to take the 22% today if it meant placing 100,000,000 shares at an SP which was destructive to value to share holders, of course not, no-one would. Think I'll trust our BoD to try(!) to do the right thing for us and their 29p options, than try to second or third-guess how this might play out which no doubt the market will be trying to do, given the surprise placing and open offer earlier in the year, which I certainly didn't expect!

Indeed @EV. Clearly no explanation given, as none needed. Exciting times! Imagine owning 49% of a company that was once valued at $3.2B with expansion possibilities on the table. Pretty sure the market will wake up once that starts to sink in hopefully following the publication of the updated MRE and PFS. :-)

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/vqwl7w/weekly_discussion_thread_upcoming_news_icymi_july/

@EV "Take advantage of the market if you are able.". Absolutely. Very happy with recent purchases on the back of my research, of which I mostly share for the benefit of others:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/vpr5w7/due_diligence_lsekdnc_cadence_minerals_asset/

drip, drip, drip, bang! ;-)

These things take time @Bannor....

And the rest @jimb! I've got £1-2B on the cards if we manage to play this just right! ;-)

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/vpr5w7/due_diligence_lsekdnc_cadence_minerals_asset/
===[
But what about the market cap today I hear you ask? The market decides that, and I'm not suggesting it should be deciding £1-2B, nor I doubt anyone informed would suggest £17m is a good reflection of asset value either - so somewhere in between! Very roughly and assuming most things go our way my best guess is:

Near term: £37.5-92m
Medium term: £160-420m
Longer term: £1-2B+
]===

Certainly interesting from a market analysis point of view, and quite reassuring for me buying at these lows that any reasonably conservative assessment of the likely present NAV is around 30p:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/vpr5w7/due_diligence_lsekdnc_cadence_minerals_asset/

The 30p includes a central estimate of Amapa being worth £24m and a (very) conservative estimate of Sonora currently being worth £12m based on recent precedents.

Looking forward to the various triggers which will cement these valuations, and more! :-)

Absolutely @MLQ. No sign of lithium prices budging in either direction, and with Ganfeng apparently proceeding with plans for a stage 1 50ktpa Lithium Hydroxide operation in Sonora, our JV's must be looking mighty attractive right about now in those automaker discussions! ;-)

https://www.lme.com/en/metals/ev/lme-lithium-hydroxide-cif-fastmarkets-mb#Price+graph

We've got 839kt LCE of lithium reserves associated with us. RESERVES. lol. More than some company's total LCE resources!

https://www.cadenceminerals.com/projects/sonora-lithium-project/

My latest Sonora valuation which I updated on the weekend can be found here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/vpr5w7/due_diligence_lsekdnc_cadence_minerals_asset/

Cheers @jimb. Really don't think the market appreciates how valuable our Sonora JV's are to the automakers...

Interesting angle @Dallas. Personally think Ganfeng's offer for BCN, and the recent precedent selling our Yangibana JV to HAS sets a sale value of our small bit in the Sonora JV of £12-45m. I doubt we'd throw in the rest of the JV with that price tag, but anything is possible. Wouldn't surprise me to see a sale of sufficiently enough of Sonora to cover the 22% cost - the rest converted to royalty or some other derivative ownership, and if we don't take the 22% instead bringing in a partner, that would then pretty much immediately value our 27% at £24-30m in the eyes of the wider market, which me might decide to exit for at that time if it turns out investing in Sonora or elsewhere is preferable to investing in Amapa - either way, very much doubt the market will ignore that news - especially if the partner is well known. After the Q&A I was very happy to have added significantly last week after Kiran clarified a thing or two that was on my mind, and now looking forward to the MRE, PFS, 22%, Sonora and EMH playing out , not necessarily in that order, but hopefully in the next few months! :-)))

Listen from 40:53 below. Pretty clear to me there is quite likely going to be significant upside to KDNC from the Sonora expansions that Ganfeng are planing. I don't think this is widely appreciated. But that's what makes a market I guess! ;-)

"Investor Presentation and Q&A with Cadence Minerals CEO, Kiran Morzaria" (1 Jul 2022)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cu1u90A2BDA&t=2453s
===[
Kiran Morzaria, CEO of Cadence Minerals #KDNC answers investor questions including plans and forecasts for its two key projects Amapa and Sonora

00:00 Introduction
00:28 KDNC Investor Presentation
23:02 Cadence Minerals Q&A
]===

Everyone is free to value the company however they want. On Sonora, I personally think the Hastings transaction has set a precedent for a minimum value of our Sonora JV of £12m based on the "current" 17.5/35kt LCE plan at $11/kg. At a more realistic $22/kg this is £45m. But does anyone really think Ganfeng will not be able to produce a DFS to produce 50ktpa of Lithium Hydroxide, in phase 1? If we hold, and we appear to be at this stage, then that £12-45m should be worth significantly more to us when these plans become apparent as our JV will be required sooner and in greater volume.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/vpr5w7/due_diligence_lsekdnc_cadence_minerals_asset/