Member Info for observer842

Indeed @Dallas. Not sure if we want it to be higher or lower though! You?

Thanks for sharing @MLQ, it's becoming increasingly difficult to stay abreast of news! As pointed out by @EV, hopefully contributes to our revenue streams at some point!

Here's a reminder what's happening behind the Sonora scenes.

"EXCLUSIVE: GANFENG EYES US OEMS FOR “STRATEGIC” STAKE IN MEXICAN LITHIUM PROJECT" (8th April 2022)
https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/membership/exclusive-ganfeng-eyes-us-oems-for-strategic-stake-in-mexican-lithium-project/
https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/tz8dyd/exclusive_ganfeng_eyes_us_oems_for_strategic/
===[
China’s Ganfeng Lithium says major US automakers could make a “strategic” investment in the Sonora lithium mine in Mexico, as they seek to create a North American supply chain for battery raw materials.

China’s largest lithium producer said that an investment by Ford, GM or Tesla would help provide automakers with reliable supplies of lithium that can be easily shipped across the border to plants in the US.

“We are open to having strategic investors in our Mexico project, together with investment we could have an offtake agreement with them,” Wang Xiaoshen, vice chairman of Ganfeng, told Benchmark
]===

Now what might that "investment" look like, and how might it benefit us is the question. I can think of quite a few scenarios, especially in the light of the sector continuing to heat up!

Ob.

Indeed @jimb. I think it's starting to sink in...

"LG Energy Solution signs lithium supply deal with US mining company" (Jun 30, 2022 )
https://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20220630000321
===[
"Securing key raw materials has become critically important, in order to maintain our lead position in the global battery market," Kim Dong-soo, senior vice president of the procurement center at LG Energy Solution, said in comments posted on the website of Compass Minerals. "We believe partnering up with Compass Minerals will aid in achieving that goal while solidifying supply chains in the US"
...
LGES has been ramping up efforts to secure the stable supply of key battery components from overseas partners in Australia, Europe and South America, to meet the growing EV demand amid rising raw material costs.
]===

Odds on we'll see Cinovec and Sonora news sooner rather than later IMHO...

Talking of sharing...

I make the TL;DR on upcoming news as below. Follow the link for better formatting and links to corroborating evidence. Slightly dated now as the LT&LS news happened Monday!

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/vlk866/weekly_discussion_thread_upcoming_news_icymi_june/
===[
Amapa Iron Ore: First right of refusal to increase ownership stake from 27% towards 49% of a project that had discounted cash flow valuations of $1.2B Anglo & $1.66B Cliffs and an initial valuation when purchased by Anglo of $3.2B in 2008 with anticipated news flow over the coming weeks in the run up to the PFS due in July, including: continued shipping of stockpiles; rehabilitation progress; financing & off-take; agreements reestablished to increase mine life; state-of-the-art loader proposals, completed PFS milestones.

Sonora Lithium: In conversation with Ganfeng regarding KDNC's 30% JV's. Details on Ganfeng's optimisation and expansion ambitions and potential impact on KDNC of massively increased stage 1 plans to 50ktpa of Lithium hydroxide and beyond forthcoming, including strategic OEM investments, and consequences of recent nationalisation votes.

LT/LS Lithium: Finalisation of agreement to sell 31.5% stake worth up to £3.72m to KDNC. Interview explaining decision to reduce risk whilst maintaining exposure to both the upside of the buyer's success and of the expected Lithium supply shortfall.

Yangibana Rare Earths: Finalisation of agreement to take £5.1m shares in HAS in exchange for our joint venture areas.

EMH Lithium: DFS/partner/offtake/funding announcements for phase 1 of the project.
]===

Indeed @EV. In my mind, the actual minimums of Sonora and Amapa are likely twice, perhaps 3 times that stated, but I wanted to convince myself that the current share price is a steal, so went for an absolute minimum in my NAV. Not like me, I know - but it is what it is, and since this is a complicated share I thought it worth sharing, especially since I've paused buying for now. lol.

Rough estimate for current NAV:

EMH: £6m
LT&LS: £2.5m, conservative estimate, but up to £3.8m.
HAS: £5.1m
Other public equity ~£0.5m
Cash: ~£2m
Amapa: £7.5m, conservative lower bound of 1.5x of that invested to date.
Sonora: £12m, conservative lower bound for the small bit of our JV in the current, but almost certainly dated in our favour, mining plan.

Total excluding Sonora = £23.5m (13.5p), with Sonora = £35.5m (20.5p)

I must stress that these are absolute MINIMUM valuations as both Amapa and Sonora could surprise by orders of magnitude, that gave me conviction to buy heavily recently.

Ob

Absolutely. I think it might be starting to sink in... "The most challenging topic is not ramping up the car plants. The most challenging topic will be ramping up the battery supply chain."

Really think you are seeing shadows @Ivy, and besides, it's not how forward selling works from my experience, it's during a spike upwards on volume. 2m shares is peanuts in terms of a raise. If anything it'll be the remaining circa 25m shares, and more likely around the 20p area in the form of a CLN if you ask me, though 29p would be "fairer" eh @Kiran? lol. If you think it's mostly due to a single person selling out, then it could be an estate cashing in on their behalf, or any manner of other reasons why a large holder has had enough here... In my experience it usually pays to buy low, sell high, not the other way round. But we shall see won't we, and hopefully soon! Amapa updates are now imminent. ;-)

Really don't understand where you are coming from @Ivy. Perhaps if you ask nicely enough those selling today to chase the drops elsewhere in the market might fess up. It's the AIM drip IMHO. Not enough buyers on low volume = slow decline in share price. Suits me whilst I'm buying... Though paused for now.

and flatlining...

https://www.lme.com/en/metals/ev/lme-lithium-hydroxide-cif-fastmarkets-mb#Price+graph

Got to be pretty good for negotiations with Ganfeng! ;-)

Exactly right @Dallas. And it would have let it be known more widely that the $660m that is bandied about by @Kiran IS NOT AN NPV. Still we've got that nice little surprise to come for those who don't realise, or want to the believe the potential of the project that has been estimated by some of the regulars on here and there. I'll be extremely surprised if it's not > $1B, and why I've been piling in at these give away prices... Each to their own though! ;-)

Yes - we skipped the scoping study. Personally think this was to our (KDNC, not the project's) detriment, but there you go.

lol @Dallas today is sometime this year right? ;-) I think he might have got a tap on the shoulder for giving a date out! I mean, who would do that on an AIM share - practically begging the swing traders to leave for a "break"! The MRE could land at any time, and the PFS could land the same week. But yeah - it could be December the 31st if you like. lol.

@Ivy, they are only large relative to the low volume we have at the moment. It's always the way on AIM shares. It's called the drip. People sell for all sorts of reasons, and the SP is brought down way below the fundamentals if the current holders aren't or can't add to balance - and I'd say an open offer probably wiped out many of ours! (hope Kiran appreciates this!) - and then the technicals start to make the selling self-fulfilling. We get some good results and some good publicity in the next few weeks and months and we will absolutely fly. Heck, I'm not even sure the last placing got fully flipped yet, so a bit early to be talking about new placings IMHO - but stranger things have happened! lol. Maybe a CLN at the open offer price for £4m? That's approximately the authorisation they've got left IIRC?

One thing is certain in my mind @Barksy, if many here find it hard to understand what is going on and the possibilities, I'm pretty sure the wider market won't get it! I know @Bannor like's to tease, but keep an eye on those 29p options... ;-)

It's not me - I've stopped buying for now! lol.

Indeed @Ivy. We need to drum up some interest in this company, and I'm expecting that to happen shortly after the MRE/PFS - and expecting brokers to begin to issue notes with the "simplification" of our holdings following the LT&LS and HAS news, though Sonora is still the wild card. Minimum valuation of that to me is $15m, but could be orders of magnitude more than this should it play out just right. Even fair value based on the offer by Ganfeng on a reserve basis based on $11/kg would send us into orbit! And what's LCE at nowadays? 60? 70? This is so under the radar it smarts. lol. Get some decent publicity done Kiran. Crux for example. Still great buying opportunity, which I have been doing. In spades...

It's not a matter of convincing @Dallas. The wider market, and I suspect many invested here, present company excepted are gearing up for an NPV of Amapa of $660m. In my view the true NPV will be 2-3 times this with a significantly smaller CapEx of projects of a similar size meaning the IRR will be off the chart. This will drum up a fair amount of interest from those that didn't "realise". Many won't get this. That's the play... MRE imminent, PFS follows shortly afterwards. I've seen days before now.

Been soaking them up for some time @Bannor. Sometimes you just have to sell, and sometimes it's impossible to resist a bargain. And 10.5p is an absolute bargain in my view. ;-)