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KDNC is heavily oversold IMHO given the news flow on the near horizon.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/w7cbvb/weekly_discussion_thread_upcoming_news_icymi_july/
===[
I make the TL;DR on upcoming news as:

Amapa Iron Ore: First right of refusal to increase ownership stake from 27% towards 49% of a project that had discounted cash flow valuations of $1.2B Anglo & $1.66B Cliffs and an initial valuation when purchased by Anglo of $3.2B in 2008.

Anticipated order of events: MRE, PFS, 22%, IPO/DFS.

Shipment of stockpiles recommencing when conditions are favourable.

Sonora Lithium: In conversation with Ganfeng regarding KDNC's 30% JV's. Details on Ganfeng's optimisation and expansion ambitions and potential impact on KDNC of massively increased stage 1 plans to 50ktpa of Lithium hydroxide and beyond forthcoming, including strategic OEM investments, and consequences of recent nationalisation votes.

Anticipated order of events: Confirmation Lithium tenements are valid, publication of expanded DFS, new off take/investors.

Recent events highlight Ganfeng have the funds and are keen to do deals.

Evergreen Lithium: Initial public offering.

Yangibana Rare Earths: Finalisation of agreement to take A$9m in HAS shares in exchange for our joint venture areas.

EMH Lithium: DFS/partner/offtake/funding announcements for phase 1 of the project.

My Latest valuation estimates and Due Diligence by u/EV-BULL suggest the market is currently discounting Amapa and Sonora to near zero contribution to the NAV.
]===

Closed 4-5% up
http://www.dce.com.cn/webquote/futures_quote_en.jsp?varietyid=I

Se my post on Fri 11:35 for the full quote and link.

Fantastic work @EV! I don't know about you, but this keeps ringing through my head... "so you would see our area come forward in the mine plan and therefore would have a far higher value because the NPV would increase."

Far higher...

5-7%: http://www.dce.com.cn/webquote/futures_quote_en.jsp?varietyid=I

"Four holes were drilled at the very north of Bald Hill, within tenure held in Joint Venture with Cadence Minerals
Plc. Hasting’s has agreed to acquire Cadence’s 30% interest in the Joint Venture Tenements (ASX: 23rd June 2022
Hasting's to Acquire 30% Yangibana Joint Venture Interest from Cadence Minerals Plc) and the quality of the
ground has been clearly demonstrated with three of the four holes intersecting mineralization. The strongest
intersection was from BHRC593 (5m at 3.09% TREO from 32m), with mineralisation open to the north (Figure 2)."

Could be as soon as next week we find out the fate of our Sonora JV's @jimb. If it's good then Ganfeng will get on with it, perhaps even releasing their updated DFS within days, maybe even making us an offer. If it's bad then I guess it'll be a long drawn out affair...

Over $5B NPV 8% post tax. Staggering indeed @EV! Figure 13, on page 25 of the recently updated PFS:

https://www.investi.com.au/api/announcements/emh/7381a65f-d0b.pdf

Most of the market won't realise this, mostly just existing Long Term Holders who perhaps were overstretched in the open offer, of which I have confidence Kiran won't place below as we are going for accretive growth! :-)

"Investor Presentation and Q&A with Cadence Minerals CEO, Kiran Morzaria" (1 Jul 2022)
https://youtu.be/cu1u90A2BDA?t=2453
===[
Q
Second question, related to Ganfeng. They've recently said that they plan to produce 50,000 tonnes of hydroxide from phase one of the project how does that affect your mining plans in your areas?

A
So we base what we have as on a document - They haven't completed a Definitive Feasibility Study on this plan. Our understanding is that they will be embarking on this to prove that they can do it, and that they can deliver Lithium Hydroxide, which I certainly believe they can from this ore. And then what the mining plan looks like? If the mining plan would follow the same logics and economics as the DFS did, then what would happen is that our area would get mined earlier because suddenly you're not doing 35,000 tons of lithium carbonate a year, you're doing 50,000 tonnes of lithium hydroxide so you would see our area come forward in the mine plan and therefore would have a far higher value because the NPV would increase.

Q
Final question on Sonora which relates to royalties and ownership. The question is, given the royalties on Sonora do not appear to affect Cadence JV areas does this make the JV areas more attractive to mine earlier and would you consider converting your JV holding into a royalty over the areas or the whole project?

A
So yeah our area doesn't have the royalty and as not having the royalty it's a lower cost, but it's not enough of a lower cost to make a significant difference to the mine plan. There's a large amount of overburden in our area so therefore it doesn't make it significant or material difference. It's not going to move it to year one of mining, it might move it by six months or something like that but nothing material. Whether we would convert our JV holding into a royalty over the areas or the whole project? Yeah, for the right price of course we would. As we've shown we would convert ownerships into many structures: whether that be cash, and more recently where we've converted our ownership into equity. So royalty or any other derivative ownership of the entire project is fine for us.
]===

Note that @Kiran only addressed the 50,000ktpa Phase 1 plans. Let's see what the Ganfeng DFS has to say, I'm expecting we'll see 100,000ktpa phase 2 to please their shareholders - unlike BCN, they can afford to scale big!

Ob

It was such a great quote, I transcripted it here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/w55mvr/rock_stock_channel_e54_battery_minerals/
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If you don't own the mines, if you don't own the physical supply: not a contract, not a piece of paper, not a loan, not an agreement - physical supply, like owning the mine, owning half of the mine, whatever, then you're not in the game. Then you're literally outsourcing ... it's basic now right, you're building a fundamental industry from scratch and if you don't own the mine quite simply you're not in the game. It doesn't mean you're not going to be able to make batteries, it means you cannot guarantee you're making batteries, you cannot guarantee you're going to make EV's.

And we're about to go for the next 10 years where it's going to be the most competitive and cutthroat environment for the EV supply chain ever as we scale. So it really is as simple as that now and ask the OEMs, ask the battery guys, ask the cathode guys, the billions and billions you're putting into your businesses, do you want to risk that? And whilst they get it, you know there's no secrets now in this industry everyone understands what the situation is, it's just varying degrees of massive demand, the question is at what point, someone's going to make the step. You saw BYD trying to dabble let's say in some projects in Africa, I think there's a lot more to come from BYD, but I do think that they are going to have to start owning the mines and I know I feel like I'm repeating myself but Rodney as you said there's no other way to guarantee making an EV.
]===

He's also suggesting $35-45/kg for big contracts for the next 3 years would be a good deal for the EV/battery makers. The optimistic side of my valuations were based on $22/kg...

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/vpr5w7/due_diligence_lsekdnc_cadence_minerals_asset/

Wakey, wakey!

Great quote from Simon Moores:

"Rock Stock Channel: E54: Battery Minerals Intelligence. Benchmark's Simon Moores" (21 Jul 2022)
https://youtu.be/Liz173OcnzM?t=1307
===[
If you don't own the mines, if you don't own the physical supply: not a contract, not a piece of paper, not a loan, not an agreement - physical supply, like owning the mine, owning half of the mine, whatever, then you're not in the game. Then you're literally outsourcing ... it's basic now right, you're building a fundamental industry from scratch and if you don't own the mine quite simply you're not in the game. It doesn't mean you're not going to be able to make batteries, it means you cannot guarantee you're making batteries, you cannot guarantee you're going to make EV's.

And we're about to go for the next 10 years where it's going to be the most competitive and cutthroat environment for the EV supply chain ever as we scale. So it really is as simple as that now and ask the OEMs, ask the battery guys, ask the cathode guys, the billions and billions you're putting into your businesses, do you want to risk that? And whilst they get it, you know there's no secrets now in this industry everyone understands what the situation is, it's just varying degrees of massive demand, the question is at what point, someone's going to make the step. You saw BYD trying to dabble let's say in some projects in Africa, I think there's a lot more to come from BYD, but I do think that they are going to have to start owning the mines and I know I feel like I'm repeating myself but Rodney as you said there's no other way to guarantee making an EV.
]===

It's truly incredible that our share price doesn't reflect ANY of the potential of our Sonora 30% JV with GANFENG from what I can see.

Great watch.

So more likely to be GM or Tesla then...

https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2022/07/21/ford-battery-capacity-raw-materials-scale-evs.html

Reminder:

"EXCLUSIVE: GANFENG EYES US OEMS FOR “STRATEGIC” STAKE IN MEXICAN LITHIUM PROJECT" (8th April 2022)
https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/membership/exclusive-ganfeng-eyes-us-oems-for-strategic-stake-in-mexican-lithium-project/
===[
China’s Ganfeng Lithium says major US automakers could make a “strategic” investment in the Sonora lithium mine in Mexico, as they seek to create a North American supply chain for battery raw materials.

China’s largest lithium producer said that an investment by Ford, GM or Tesla would help provide automakers with reliable supplies of lithium that can be easily shipped across the border to plants in the US.

“We are open to having strategic investors in our Mexico project, together with investment we could have an offtake agreement with them,” Wang Xiaoshen, vice chairman of Ganfeng, told Benchmark
]===

"Tesla Q2 Earnings Call 2022 (TSLA)"
https://youtu.be/2L9jI9aV3j4?t=1037
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the processing of lithium is insane, I'd like to once again urge entrepreneurs to enter the lithium refining business, the mining is a relatively easy, the refining is much harder so the lithium is actually very common, there's like lithium pretty much everywhere but you have to refine into battery grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide which has the extremely high purity so it is basically like minting money right now, there's like software margins in lithium processing right now, so I would really like to encourage once again entrepreneurs to enter the lithium refining business, you can't lose, it's a licence to print money
]===

Incredible really. ;-) Hello! lol

https://www.cadenceminerals.com/projects/sonora-lithium-project/

Oh you are not alone @jimb. One hint we are in the mix and we are off to the races. IMHO of course... Feels like a free bet from here - I mean imagine we find out that our Sonora JV's have been nationalised tomorrow? So? Not contributing a jot to the SP at the moment from what I can see! I suspect many potential investors are not aware of the risk to reward ratios otherwise we'd surely be much, much higher than we are. I've piled in more recently between 10-12p on the back of my analysis:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/vpr5w7/due_diligence_lsekdnc_cadence_minerals_asset/

as the returns from Sonora if not nationalised and Ganfeng up the mining plan from 17.5/35ktpa Carbonate to 50/100ktpa Hydroxide are truly eye watering for us. And the signs they are heading down this route are growing stronger day by day...

Ob.

"VERY FEW"! ;-)

"four or six companies" - wonder if Ganfeng/BCN and Cadence Minerals count as 1 or 2? Still waiting for the market to get it. Wait for it... lol. ;-)

Wrong link...

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/ganfeng-lithium-to-acquire-lithea-for-962m-to-secure-lithium-supplies-71126377

Lithium projects are being snapped up for relatively large percentages of NPV. BCN was around 50% DFS NPV, Lithia last week around 80%... At this point, EMH could be snapped up for £2-3 IMHO... Anyone care to check?

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/insight-weekly-july-12-2022