Member Info for observer842

$85/kg
https://www.lme.com/en/metals/ev/lme-lithium-hydroxide-cif-fastmarkets-mb#Price+graph

Now comfortably over $100/t 62% Fe
http://www.dce.com.cn/webquote/mobile/m_futures_quote_en.jsp?varietyid=I

Most people still have no idea. The Sonora plan could be the most significant deal of any kind in a very long time for KDNC ;-)

LoL @Bannor, our SP should be over £200 per share based on the in-ground value of our share of the Sonora resource as recently estimated by the Mexican finance ministry. That's how valuations work right? ;-)

The Sonora plan seems to be gaining traction in the news:

"Mexico seeks U.S., Canadian investment for lithium exploitation " (November 23, 2022)
https://aztecreports.com/mexico-seeks-u-s-canadian-investment-for-lithium-exploitation/3263/
===[
According to the U.S. Geological Survey, Mexico ranks ninth in global lithium reserves, amassing 1.7 million tons of the coveted mineral.

“The lithium stays in Sonora, that is to say, the raw material, the mineral. A commitment is going to be established to create the plants for the manufacturing of batteries in Sonora. Those batteries will be used only in automotive industries that are installed in Sonora,” López Obrador said.
]===

I can state with some certainly that pretty much all news outlets and those reading the stories won't realise that little 'ol KDNC have claim over around 277kt of those 1.7Mt of Lithium resources - I'm tempted to work out how much Lithium I personally have claim over due to my holding here. lol.

Note, in this context we are talking Lithium the element (Li), not the usual Lithium Carbonate Equivalent (LCE).

@MB Sonora came on the scene in February 2013, and fever pitch first struck in August 2013.

With the 10 year anniversary fast approaching if you aren't a (very!) LTH here, it's worth taking a look at the share price graph just before the Sonora news that set us off on this journey and in the following months and years - history about to repeat itself? Hopefully we'll be able to hold the gains this time! ;-)

https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/KDNC.L

Lithium prices continuing to rise:

https://www.lme.com/en/metals/ev/lme-lithium-hydroxide-cif-fastmarkets-mb#Price+graph

How long before > $100/kg? Sonora totally off the radar for the wider market. 10 years in the making :-)

Indeed @Barksy - the signs are pointing to greater than 35ktpa LCE from Sonora meaning the concessions we currently have 30% claim over will be required sooner and in greater volumes than in the current (but clearly dated from I can see) 35ktpa DFS mining plan. And unlike various Amapa news we've got wind of (some good researchers on here - it certainly ain't all me and @EV!) before it was announced, I'm struggling to see how anyone will get a definitive edge, sure, announcements from top players like this help, but it feels nothing but concrete RNS'able news is going to move the market - this time round. Though I shouldn't complain too much as if this comes off big, then the market discounting Sonora to practically zero will have certainly suited me just fine given how much I've added around these prices, and recently when below 10p :-)))

continued:

===[
And the third thing is lithium, which has also been decided, plans are being made to finish resolving the concessions, it is being decided that lithium already belongs to the nation, and that in all cases there must be association of the public company with individuals, and that we do not want lithium to be taken out of Sonora, but rather, first, that the public company be the majority.

Second, that the lithium stay in Sonora, that is, the raw material, the mineral, and that the commitment to create the plants for the manufacture of batteries in Sonora be established. And that those batteries that are going to be manufactured in Sonora are used only in automotive industries that are installed in Sonora. So, a call will be launched to see which companies from the United States and Canada are going to participate.

It is what we are seeing, that is the plan that is had. However, it is being considered that, instead of one solar power generation plant, there are five, with more transmission lines, and that more investment be made, but that will depend on the acceptance of two conditions in the United States government Joined:

One, that the investment, if it is credit, help the United States government to have low rates, because it is about renewable energy. That is one. In other words, not commercial rates for the Federal Electricity Commission.

And the second thing is that, in everything, the majority owner is the nation represented, in the case of solar plants, by the Federal Electricity Commission.

That's the approach.
]===

Here is the full translation of what was said:

https://www-gob-mx.translate.goog/presidencia/articulos/version-estenografica-conferencia-de-prensa-del-presidente-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-del-15-de-noviembre-de-2022?_x_tr_sl=es&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=sc
===[
PRESIDENT ANDRÉS MANUEL LÓPEZ OBRADOR: Yesterday we met here, the governor was there, the Secretary of the Treasury, the Secretary of Energy, the director of the Federal Electricity Commission, the director of Conacyt; In other words, we are working together on the Sonora Plan.

It also appeared, as you mention, in Egypt. He will depend on what the United States government decides. We made a proposal to promote the Sonora Plan, let's say with sufficient investment and for a normal, gradual development.

And there is another plan, which is to give it more intensity, more investment, but that will depend on the participation of the United States government. They are two things.

It is safe for Sonora that the Peñasco solar plant with transmission line is finished, that it is already underway, that is it.

The entire logistics plan is safe: the Chihuahua to Guaymas highway, the rehabilitation of the Port of Guaymas, the handling of cargo and passage from the Obregón airport by the Secretary of the Navy integrated into the port of Guaymas, the delivery also under concession for its management and at the time its rehabilitation of the Guaymas airport, the rehabilitation of land customs in San Luis Río Colorado, in Sonoyta, along the entire border.

There are five customs that are going to be rehabilitated, among them is Nogales, but there is not only the rehabilitation of customs, but it is a bypass so that the railway no longer passes through the city, so that it does not split the city, it is a bypass, and they are working with the local government of the United States to move the checkpoints, customs. The same in Agua Prieta, the entire border is going to have special treatment, that's it.

The third thing... This is what is already in process, well, we already have money for this, both for Peñasco, the solar plant, the transmission, as well as for all this infrastructure work, logistics, which includes roads, ports, customs and airports, we already have the budget.

And the third thing is lithium, which has also been decided, plans are being made to finish resolving the concessions, it is being decided that lithium already belongs to the nation, and that in all cases there must be association of the public company with individuals, and that we do not want lithium to be taken out of Sonora, but rather, first, that the public company be the majority.

I'm of the opinion news on Sonora will come out of the blue, and it sounds like that news might be just around the corner - the concessions under discussion are very likely ours and Ganfeng's IMHO.

"Lithium from Mexico will only be for automotive companies that invest in Sonora, but it will not leave the country as a raw material" (Tuesday 15th November)
https://mexico.detailzero.com/news/164637/Lithium-from-Mexico-will-only-be-for-automotive-companies-that-invest-in-Sonora-but-it-will-not-leave-the-country-as-a-raw-material.html
===[
“It has already been decided, the plans are being made to finish resolving the concessions, it is being decided that lithium already belongs to the nation and that in all cases there must be an association of the public company with individuals, and that We don’t want lithium to be taken out of Sonora,” AMLO said.
]===

Indeed @Bannor. There are some mixed views on whether we need to see "dividend" flow to KDNC for the market to recognise value of an unlisted company/project we are invested in. Clearly it can't hurt, and helps value us, though I suspect/hope we'll see an IPO of Amapa which will then allow us to be easily valued on a mark to market basis, ala our other listed assets - which is apparently resulting in our unlisted assets, Amapa and Sonora being valued at near zero - making this a crazy Strong Buy in my opinion with the market struggling to understand the proposition here, coupled with insufficient reach. Talking of which where is that WHI report? Waiting on the PFS I bet to save them some leg work! lol

lol. Right of first refusal...

"with an option to go to 49%" - first right of refusal. Close enough?

Those watching the markets probably realise that with iron ore continuing to rise (up 2-3% last night) and shipping continuing to fall (massively down from the recent highs), we might be close to starting up shipping the iron ore in the stock piles at the private port again. Soon 30%, with an option to go to 49% of those profits associated with KDNC. Hopefully the trends continue until the PFS is released! :-)

Looks like excitement from various quarters about the Sonora Plan except our BoD - or perhaps they are NDA'd to silence? ;-)

Worth watching the whole thing, but this is the key bit worth sharing:

"Sonora is in Egypt to present the Sonora Sustainable Energy Plan at COP27"
https://youtu.be/zRp_x6eYf84?t=183
===[
Governor Alfonso Durazo expressed his opinion on the presentation of the Sonora plan at COP 27. We are living a new moment for Sonora a historic moment and I say it beyond the rhetorical mood that a ruler can usually have, the Sonora clean energy plan that will promote the exploitation of lithium will promote the establishment of value chains here in the state, without a doubt, it is time for Sonora to show the world that can be contributed to the care of the environment and sustainable development
]===

Indeed @Jimb. The silence from the BoD is quite notable on the back of the Sonora Plan announced at COP27 and continued news flow! ;-)

Until we hear to the contrary, this from the interims stands :-)

===[
We are constantly examining possible legislative changes, and Gangfeng is ensuring that the mineral concessions remain
legitimate. It is our current view that the Decree passed by the senate only impacts licenses, concessions, or contracts to be
granted, NOT already those already granted, as is the case for the Sonora Lithium Project. Therefore, at this point, we do not
believe there is a material impact on our joint venture areas.
]===

Worth a read.

"Mexico to urge U.S., Canada firms to participate in lithium market" (November 15, 2022)
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/mexico-urge-us-canada-firms-participate-lithium-market-2022-11-15/
===[
The role of foreign companies will be centered in building infrastructure and state entities will hold the majority stakes in the projects, he added.
...
Though Mexico does not currently produce lithium, the finance ministry estimated the value of Sonora lithium reserves at $600 billion.
]===

KDNC has a 16.8% of that $600 billion of lithium resources (the article means resources, not reserves in this context), associated with it. Don't believe me? DYOR and see for yourself. ;-)

lol. Need sellers... ;-)

Continuing to rise... https://www.lme.com/en/metals/ev/lme-lithium-hydroxide-cif-fastmarkets-mb#Price+graph