Member Info for notrader

So much nonsense on this board about reasons for trading at this low range - it is not a conspiracy, not because of headlines about fines for foreign travel, RR are not being affected by covid more than their peers in aviation, there is no major panic by investors that the company has cashflow problems, or other tripe spouted by the trolls.

IMO the underlying reason for the low price is that there are sellers out there willing to meet any demand for shares around the current price. Many IIs bought large numbers of shares in the rights issue and are showing significant paper profits on them. They rarely hold these for long; they are under obligations to show profits - large positions on paper are cash tied up, especially when the big increases drop off. Many IIs are liquidising some of their profits to help balance sheets and until they are happy with their positions, we will continue to trade at a depressed range.

Mike - you mention, as have others, numbers of large "buys" which fail to positively affect the SP. Firstly, there is no guarantee these are buys, and even if they are, it means that others are willing to sell at this low price to meet the demand.

This is the crux - there are sellers out there willing to meet any demand for shares around the current price. My theory is that these sellers are those who bought big on the way up and are now looking to liquidise some or all of their positions. I don't think it's correct to say that II's have 'sticky fingers'. They are under obligations to show profits - large positions on paper are cash tied up, especially when the big increases drop off.

To mark St Patrick's Day, the Irish government has announced they have discovered the roadside grave of what they think must be their oldest ever resident. The stone marker is inscribed:
195
Miles from Dublin

(Apologies to Paddy)

A suggestion for those with spare ISA capacity, while the SP is so depressed. My GGP is all outside ISA, I had some ISA available this FY, so instead of selling & transferring, I just bought new in ISA. I am convinced the SP will rise and when it does, I can then do the sale to recover the cash and end up with increased holding (or just let it all ride but I'll probably need the cash back)

Shame there's no facility here to have "sticky" posts that stay at the top of the discussion board. Bamp's posts from today should be the first thing any prospective investor sees when visiting the board.

007 - "don't you think its better to call out those LTH's who support this b@llocks!?!" That's the point. No we don't

007 quotes : "I only reply to those posters I respect" Lots of respect being shown here.
"Another ridiculous conspiracy - If I don't agree with a so called LTH - I'm paid to do so!.....Really! Clown"

You keep professing to be a big time LTH. However, your posting bears all the hallmarks of a troll - disruptive, argumentative, short on added value. I tend to judge based on actions, not words, and if you're not a troll then you're doing a pretty good impression of one.

MJK1 - the figure of 75p you quote is inaccurate. It was an estimate used by MMs to approximate a new price on 28 Oct based on uptake of all the issue shares at 32p. In reality, as I've stated, some shares of the total issue actually sold for 90p. This was not known until the issue results were released on 12 Nov. Using this corrected info, the equivalent share price was actually 78p.

Jonny - sorry if I've misunderstood relevance of 10 to 3, but if it refers to the issue entitlement, then it's 10 new for every 3 old so for old to new ratio would give 13 new + old giving a ratio of 13/3 = 4.333333

MJK1 - The process of the rights issue is irrelevant to comparing prices. "The rights added 6,436,651,043 (10 for 3) shares at 32p which added £2.059 billion to the RR market cap" No it didn't. Firstly, only 6,061,504,884 were taken up at 32p. The remaining 375,096,792 were sold on the open market by the underwriters at an average of 90p.

Secondly, the proceeds did not add to the market cap, only to the company's assets. The market cap is determined by the market through the SP.

It remains a fact that to match the market cap when the SP was £13 the price now would have to be £3.

MJK1 - I'm afraid your methodology is wrong. To calculate relative values of shares you need to compare ratio of the price to the market cap at the time.

Prior to the rights issue, there were 1,930,995,313 shares. Now there are 8,367,596,989.00. So at £13 per share, the market cap was £25,102,939,069. To reach an equivalent MC now would require a SP of £3.00.

Also, your calcs are wrong because not all the issue shares were sold at 32p. Those not taken up at that price were sold on the market at 90p.

No - anything in an ISA is completely ignored for tax purposes. The only risk is that a future Govt might decide to change the rules, and one possibility would be to tax withdrawals, but IMO unlikely to happen.

Daveri007 - "whatever TmT - I have no idea why you continue to knock other folks posts"

This form the guy who's main topic of posting seems to be knocking other people's posts. ".I do lose my temper every now and then - but I'm not sorry for calling some folks out" LOL

You say yourself that a CEO share buy won’t affect the share price long term, so what's the point.

Jacal

If you're going to paraphrase a quotation, at least get it right. Shakespeare, in The Merchant of Venice, actually wrote "All that glisters is not gold"

I mentioned some time ago my suspicion that JTB was an alter ego of Arnold. Coincidence that he uses the nickname of another golfing hero?

Not sure what closing price is. You'll find that some platforms, including HL and Google, show the last trade price as closing, then later change it to match UT if different. Neither LSE nor here show an uncrossing trade yet, this might be connected to the 2 PMEs delaying things. Not that it matters much to most of us, though some traders might be eager to sell first thing to catch an extra penny profit!

SpadesAspade - "if you can back it up with some sort of factual evidence" implies to me that you do not believe what I posted.

SAS - you could always do your own research and present something to refute what I say rather than aggressively challenging me.

However, (and I have posted this at least once before) the 'buy/sell' figures are calculated automatically by comparing the price to the mid-point between the bid and ask prices at the time. It is perfectly possible for a "sell" to be at a price above the mid- point and be recorded as a buy, and vice versa. Therefore they are at best a guess and inherently non-factual.

Although PIs (even those with DMA) must trade shares through the AIM exchange (the only exception would be for 2 PIs to agree to trade shares between themselves but to do this they would need to hold share certs), institutional brokers are able to deal directly with each other outside the AIM system. You might wish to research "dark pools" for more info.

The assertion that there are "missing" shares is based on 2 assumptions :
- The "buy & sell" figures are accurate
- All transactions in shares are made through the AIM system

Neither is true

But he bought at 91p not 100p! GIGO