Member Info for NoEasy

My turn Wyn ;-)

Why would you think it could be a problem with the rig rather than the work needed to successfully complete the workovers. Workovers are not minor accomplishments hence the need for a very expensive rig. The likely problem is that the amount of work needed didn't become apparent until the work started.

As an aside from what I've read on workovers they need to kill the well first by injecting fluid from above to equalise the pressure. That fluid eventually dissipates and the longer they have the well killed the more fluid they pump down. If more fluid is injected, the well will be killed for a longer period so the workover needs to be completed in a time efficient way.

Everybody, be that Jadestone, ADV, CVN, Jadestones investors, CVN's investors and of course ADV's investors, wants it out of Skua. In particular think how much the rig is costing Jadestone on a daily basis and any delay to the well flowing will also cost Jadestone. They ain't keeping hold of the rig for any other reason than its sorely needed.

This time next week I think its much more likely than not that we will have forgotten all about the six weeks extra we have had to wait to get the rig and will be focusing on the spud and much more importantly the results.

No probs SGF.

Five days to D-Day, won't tale very long, a number of hours I would guess, to couple up the tow lines. One day nothing happening next day on the move.

ALL Rum.

Nothing exciting Rum, just cross pollinating a possible stock as happens here every now and again. You'll spot it a mile off now I've said that.

@Hmn, that'll do for me:-)

Fifty percent free carry up to production on $3.5b project.
No need for for future funding and dilution.
$20m in bank.
Huge potential upside.
Producing by end 2023.
M&A happening in the sector. Realistic near term/medium term takeover target with suitors already apparent.
Significantly undervalued against peers.
Great infrastructure and power around site.
IRR 194%

Too good to be true? I'm in.

SGF/SI is ALL good?

7th Dec web.

Cryptic but don't want to take away from the chat/spat here :-)

Using the latest expected release of the rig:

14th December - Jadestone release rig.
17th December - Rig arrives at Buffalo-10
23rd December- Spud
19th January - Drill completed, including standard logging
24th January - Well suspended for future production.

The real work starts then with planning, financing, permitting etc and moving the contingent resource classification to reserves. While all this is going on we also expect to secure two more 'hot' assets.

The six man team of the company and their chosen strategic partners will be having plenty to do if all goes to plan for 2022.

Taking out CVN's and the Timor-Leste governments cut today's projected cut of Buffalo-10 for ADV based on a 34 million barrel resource @ $75 brent + $2 uplift for our light oil is:

$962500000

There can be no escaping the irony in calling out the company for not keeping to its forward looking statements whilst at the same time calling for more forward looking statements!

The company, from what i can see of the numerous updates, has chosen not to wait for concrete things to happen but rather have decided to keep their shareholders informed about what they 'expect' to happen. By their very nature forward looking statements use words such as 'expect' and make assumptions that may not materialise or that may not be accurate (for a more in-depth description read the last paragraph of CVN's latest news on Buffalo-10). https://www.carnarvon.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Buffaloprojectupdate.pdf

That having been said it was interesting that CVN stated, '...rig handover expected within the next two weeks.' while LP's comments are that Carnarvon has informed him that, "...the rig handover will occur in a couple of weeks.'

Subtle, but If the rig handover is not within the two weeks mentioned based upon LP stating he has been informed it 'will occur' I'm not going to be able to argue with those who feel the communication is not working as it should be that between Jadestone/CVN/ADV or with shareholders.

For me personally I am over the moon that we will be moving within the next week.

What you're not already staying up all night!

Pitlick 8/1

Who gets to us first with notification that the rig is on the move?

DYPC 1/5
Piltick Evens
Leslie 'A further update will be provided upon mobilisation of the drilling rig to the Buffalo Project location' Peterkin 4/1

Sorry Hms not wishing to prolong this further but it wasn't made clear to you nor anybody else that spud 'would be' early November etc. It has never been that definitive. How could it be when the release of the rig to us is dependant not upon anything we can do but upon the operator who presently has the rig finishing with it within their expected window.

I believe the word 'expected' has always been used by ADV and CVN in their releases and always subject to the above proviso.

Even at this moment in time with the rig being in the 'final stages of its current operations with another operator,' and 'the rig handover expected within the next two weeks' we see that a definitive date is and still is out of our hands.

We're a heartbeat away, make it a slow one because we should have cause to celebrate very soon.

SI, Yes it's a fairly unusual problem to have re how many shares to retain for drill results. In normal circumstances with drilling for commodities judging the risk to my money has meant quantifying the likelihood of a duster or an uncommercial discovery. More often than not leading up to results I normally sell many more than I keep. With a circa 10% chance of not finding commercial oil and even less chance of it being a duster I am left staring at a significantly enhanced probability of success here.

I've eventually come to the conclusion that I'm not going to over complicate things with this project and that my decision will follow the odds.

LP said in his most recent webinar of two weeks ago that;

'It is out of our control when we get the rig, that should be clear to everybody.'

..........Wishful thinking LP...........

Those screenshots will do for me DPYC. I was able to hold off buying when it got near the end of November based upon the those screenshots. Was expecting the rig not to move and a possible update to that effect. Let me get some cheaper.

You've contributed mate.

Must have missed that f up. What was it?

Cheers DPYC. Hopefully won't be too long before you can stand down from tugwatch. Happy times.

By my reckoning a resource of 34 million barrels at $71 per barrel will throw off $2.414bn in revenue. The cost of expenditure at $21 per barrel (high estimate) and the Timor-Leste governments percentage take leaves $1.2bn profit to be shared equally between ADV & CVN.

The scale and overall risk profile for the project is pretty compelling with high confidence from both partners and independent assessors.

We have the 'champagne of oil' according to a well placed source (our CEO) being premium light oil with an API of 53 degrees. The original development exceeded 50,000 bopd from two wells within 48 hours of coming onstream. It is expected, subject to the success of our imminent drill (95% chance of successful appraisal) we can look forward to 40,000 bopd from Buffalo-10.

This is the catalyst and driver for the small but highly experienced and well connected team at ADV to secure further assets in the near term.

Really looking forward to the next 6 weeks.

I've got the Valaris not having moved a nautical centimeter. Might be a few days yet.