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Here's an example of what we are seeking from an RBL and and today's rates.
'After all, we have been moaning about insufficient comms for months.'
Maybe change that to 'years'.
I don't particularly care whether Art is pleased to announce or whether he is updating us with not so good news what matters is that I am starting to see a complete change in communications from the CEO. That matters....a lot.
I don't believe there is any doubt about where tis is going in terms of demand for the products tGR produces and will produce. The markets being seemingly uninterested in a company that just does what it does isn't an issue for me. I bought into MRL six years ago and it has ten bagged over that time. Not once did it 'catch fire' it just did what it did. This for me has the same potential with a major difference that it is in a sector that I has significant potential, with other minerals, to catch fire.
Macro view this will beat settled investments, including those with a good dividends, in the next 4 years and by quite a margin. In truth my horizon is not as long as 4 years with the upside news that is expected here over half that time frame.
A good prospect that allows me to gamble on riskier stocks elsewhere.
I have to say Bridgedogg that's actually a pretty accurate post. No doubt you will get slaughtered for it but it is accurate.
The one thing it underlines is that COPL have been unable to move out of a cycle.
Put the recent finance out of your mind completely and then look at what is left. It's looking more likely than not that it's all coming together.
I think that cycle is about to break.
Nice to see the tide turning here, so it should it has everything going for it. I see 10x being suggested here in the medium/long term which is not over reaching the potential given the Mcap's of other companies trading this commodity. I believe we could see 200% in the next 6/8 months as being achievable. Happened with another stock I tipped six months ago on the ADV board (my first and only tip by the way and that has to be balanced out with the ADV result). But this has the same stealthy trajectory written all over it. No great hullabaloo just solid incremental upward adjustments to the SP based upon a sound business in the right field at the right time coupled with value enhancing news coming over the short/medium term horizon.
Example of the number of shares being placed on the market from this announcement:
Present number of shares 195m.
Placing price 20p = 38m shares. Increase of 19.72% of present number of shares.
Now have 233m shares.
Warrants 5m at 24p = 16m shares
We would now have 249m shares in issue.
We also then have the $20m credit drawdown facility that is convertible to equity. This also has warrants attached. If all $20m is drawndown then $10m warrants are available to the lender. So $30m worth of equity (shares) could be issued in addition to the placing shares.
If the placing warrants are taken up in the next 6 months ( a short window) that would likely pay the 12.5% interest and cover the 7% implementation fee for the cresit facility.
The money from any warrants taken out under the credit drawndown facility (excercisable over a 2yr window) would I guess be used for drilling & G&A.
The convertible loan has a potential significant impact on our total number of shares in issue. But Ultimately, the point of a convertible note is that the lender doesn’t want to get their loan paid back— they want their debt to convert into a heavily discounted security in a successful, valuable company that’s growing extremely quickly.
All resting on the promise becoming a reality, with a required production increase and discovery exploitation being feasible.
Art has the tools for ther operational side now and he has shown in the past he can use them.
'However, the Jan 10th RNS timing still does not make any coherent sense to me - why issue the discovery scale news then when CUDA bids could still be made by Feb 4th?'
My two options are different from gold's but here they are:
The discovery was released to gain interest from an established oil company to bid for CUDA. This would serve two purposes; having a JV partner with funds to help finance the drilling campaign and also leave COPL's CUDA money in the bank to service future development.
However I'm leaning much more to the option that the discovery announcement was prompted by Nigel Little after his appointment a few weeks earlier. He was brought onto the Board for his expertise in raising finance and I'm sure he explained he could do that better and straight away if the discovery was announced. The decision then had to be made by AM as to whether he continued with his decision to maintain the confidentiality of the discovery so as not to encourage other bidders for CUDA balanced with the need to get on with securing finance for the big picture of drilling more production wells and drilling to delineate the discovery. I think Nigel's appointment was the key.
So 'likely' to be this week and if not this week then 'expected' to be by the 29th April.
It seems entirely logical that AM will have a firm understanding from the court as to when a decision is going to be made especially if COPL, who are subject to a gagging agreement (NDA), is indeed the nominated bidder.
But Stas you are right to highlight how often timelines are introduced by PI's with no substance to back up those timelines other than wishful thinking. It happens all the time and mainly because people take words like 'likely' and 'expected' as meaning 'definitely'.
In this case the timeline has been introduced by AM to Jiddy so some real substance behind it (although still only a 'likely' which is not the same as a definitely). I'll go with an 8.75/10 that we get it this week.
I'm looking forward to the CPR not just for the confirmation of the discovery but also because I expect the document to be the presentation that we don't have. In depth and professional as Jiddy mentions but also balanced.
I think its fairly clear that this is unlikely to go to production given the continued interest being shown in ALL's resource.
I am linking the attached not because of the name of the person in the link but because of what is being discussed. Once one vehicle manufacturer decides to go directly into owning lithium mines then the pressure on others to secure supplies by doing the same will be immense. If it happens the starting gun on a lithium rush will likely be fired.
Art, I think if you were to break the managements ability down into different aspects of management then 'atrocious' may only be applicable to comms. Even then a lot of the relevant material is actually out there in one form or another be that from the UK announcements, the various Canadian announcements, the companies Investor Relations manager, external sources etc.
What has been missing is a thread that brings it all together in a succinct and understandable way for investors. A presentation supplemented with the odd short interviews would be enough to encapsulate everything. Alas at the moment that's not to be.
Stating the 'management here is atrocious' is not accurate if you look at what they have achieved and what they realistically expect to achieve here. May be a bit like saying a premiership winning football team are atrocious because they lost a couple of games on the way to the title.
You don't get much publicity by agreeing with the masses, you have to stand out, be an outlier, generate talk, hopefully talk that also advertises your name, you can build a brand being contentious you don't have to be right just contentious. It works. This BB has proved it. Loads of free advertising and possibly some putting their money into a subscription. I'm sure the person concerned isn't at all bothered whether this stocks SP goes up or down, just that he's got a business to run and money to make and getting a hook in somewhere definitely propels his business. I wouldn't look any further than that.
In the meantime, quietly sitting in the background is a likely placing, a successful CUDA outcome, re-financing with a Commercial Bank, a huge CPR assessment, a number of production drills and a not a grouse in sight.
Oh and the small matter of substantial drilling delineating the new discovery of circa 1.5 billion barrels of oil, on land in the good old US of A.
That'll do for me, all of it.
'How can you not see a placing is being forward sold...'
Has certainly looked that way for the past week Ironhide. CUDA result (assuming positive) will eat up a goodly percentage of any overhang and either re-financing or confirmatory CPR re the discovery will do the rest. Open road then.