Member Info for NoEasy

Previous estimation of timeline:

21st December - Jadestone release rig.
24th December - Rig arrives at Buffalo-10
30th December- Spud
26th January - Drill completed, including standard logging
31st January - Well suspended for future production.

A quicker journey to Buffalo than expected in the above but the spud date looks about right..

Last three announcements came between 2115hrs + 2121 hrs so migt not be long to wait if they have indeed spudded.

Tonight should give us an answer from Oz.

I noticed that AJ and it struck me that LP possibly has an alternative to suspending the well. Not sure how that would work re FID, Permitting, FPSO/FSO etc etc. I put that to bed rather than get a sore head from researching what if's.

I have similar SP expectations SI & happy Birthday.

We know there are no certainties but this is probably as good as it gets in terms of the chances of success. Playing the odds here so will be leaving my money in for results and acquisitions.

In LP's own words in relation to Buffalo, 'Almost improbable that the development won't go ahead.'

- Young company only started 19 months ago.
- Raise of £22m in March.
- £450k participation by management in the placing.
- Cash in the bank (£7m as of March with low G&A)
- Highly experienced management across multiple disciplines.
- Very small team - only six members keeping G&A low. All 6 on the BoD.
- Management own 5% of the company.
- Strategy targetting only discovered resources, no high risk exploration.
- Wants projects that can be brought online quickly with one other partner.
- They are not looking at small or difficult discoveries (Buffalo 20,000bopd net to ADV) and they want quick results to provide cashflow so they don't have to keep raising funds.

- Obtained 50% interest in Buffalo-10 in March 2021
- Amongst best PSC terms in SE Asia.
- Operating costs better than neighbouring Australia.
- Will not be an operator (leaves the drilling to the JV partner Carnarvon).
- Fully funded shallow water appraisal drill (not exploration).
- Replica drill of many done in the area by other operators so low risk.
- Targetting 34m barrels at 2C for 40,000bopd via 3 wells.
- 95% chance of geological success
- 86% chance of success of going into production with Buffalo-10
- Production capex shared 50/50 with CVN. Targetting 70% debt/30% equity.
- Capex $125m equating to less than $4 a barrel.
- ADV confirmed funding would be available to develop before they closed the Buffalo deal.
- Cumulative cashflow at $70 Brent circa $400m for first year.
- Economic project even at less than $35 oil price.
- ‘Champagne’ oil - 53 API minimum $2 premium over Brent

Has further projects under assessment - two are ‘hot’ targets.

Suggested reading/viewing:

https://www.advanceplc.com/media/1092/risc-cpr-buffalo-23mar2021b.pdf

https://www.lse.co.uk/media/ADV/advance-energy-update-investors-at-the-november-london-south-east-natural-resources-event.html

@AJ. https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-rig-mobilised-for-buffalo-10.6502631/

Glad you can now get on with getting that oil out and we can have the rig:-)

Good luck for the future guys, from what I have seen you have a great operation here.

'As a matter of interest, why do you have a 6 day allowance for arrival of the rig on location and spud ?'

@noix, My own research on other spuds gives anywhere between 3 days and 17 days, I didn't research too much so there is no doubt other timeframes available. However one of the oilies on here put up six days some time ago so it seems reasonable to go with that and anything else is a bonus.

We are in shallow waters and have had plenty of time to prepare.

If its gone more than the 1 nautical mile the revised schedule should be something similar to this all being well:

21st December - Jadestone release rig.
24th December - Rig arrives at Buffalo-10
30th December- Spud
26th January - Drill completed, including standard logging
31st January - Well suspended for future production.

Only my house! Don't worry about me, I have a tent.

Cheers DPYC, if I remember rightly I had you down as 1/5 on to call it first. Piltick what happened mate?

1852 meters = 1 nautical mile = Rig release

Great news DPYC. I take they are heading at 2 o'clock away from Skua (just dotting the i's).

'Rig Release means that time when Operator provides notice to Contractor that all of the Work on the last Designated Well is ended and Operator's Items have been offloaded from the Rig, and the Rig is underway at least one (1) nautical mile from the location of the last Designated Well.'

@ Piltick, Reckon there's a good chance you and few others will be at least three quarters of a nautical mile ahead of JSE announcing anything.

Hms, if you click on the link that Piltick posted and then hover your cursor over that blue dot it should, for the moment be showing it as the position of the Valris. I say for the moment as the dot stays where it is but they turn off the identification so it no longer becomes the Valaris just a dot. I suspect they do this to put the names most of the time behind a paywall.

Next, when hovering over the Valaris check the numbers in the top right hand corner of the screen. It shows the position in degrees, minutes and seconds. Just use the one starting with S 12. That's presently showing the position of the Valaris. Even if they turn off the name I can still see that the rig hasn't moved by hovering over the dot and seeing if we still have the same numbers in the top corner.

That's the only one that matters. If you see that move off that mark with a couple of other dots/ship shapes and they are facing/heading on a course that is at roughly 2 0'clock from that mark its game on.

Hope that helps.

'DPD' - funny how the mind works having just posted a parcel. Thanks DBD.

Thanks for that DPD. Would be a worthwhile question to put to LP next time he offers up the opportunity.

MT, its always a pleasure to read your posts.

@DPD, I'm thinking that 8 months ago LP was pretty confident regarding the 70/30 ratio for this project. He expected to secure 'at least' 70% third party debt and that they the Directors anticpated 'strong interest from third party debt providers & offtakers in South East Asia'.

Do we know what has changed in that short time period to affect that ratio?