Our latest Investing Matters Podcast episode with QuotedData's Edward Marten has just been released. Listen here.
You guys are having a good discussion, if some posters actually did the same took out the personally angle in their posts what is left often has merit and tells the whole story from all standpoints. Not everyone is going to get it right, me very much included, as we are basing much on our own interpretation of often limited info. Sometimes even what seems like blatant miscommunication can be genuine mistakes in the reading of things (not always though, judgement call). We seem to be gaining a position of some understanding because of the different views and a dash of unofficial comms from Art.
What struck me in the 'unofficial email' was the high likelihood that we have CUDA and that puts a very short timeline on checking Art's progress. We don't have to wait months/years to find out if what he is saying is absolutely what is happening.
This from the official announcement on Friday stating that one objective was to 'Re-finance COPL America Inc's credit facility to reduce the Company's cost of capital.'
This from the email effectively telling us how we are going to do that and by reason also indicating our name is before the court for the acquisition of CUDA;
'We have to refinance the Loan to reduce our cost of capital
? Buying Cuda makes it very easy to do with a Commercial Bank.
• The Cuda process is coming to a close. We are restricted in talking about it until things are on the public record which means filed with the Court.'
Effectively without CUDA we don't refinance with a Commercial Bank so why mention it if it's not going to happen.
Any interview this week from Art would be good. Following that up with a Commercial Bank agreement on the back of CUDA sign-off should have us all looking again at the objectives for 2022.
Thanks Bob. For what it's worth it's been good to see this Board alive for the last 18 months or so. Despite the occasional poster there is some good balance here, plenty with in-depth knowledge, posters who are prepared to challenge and not too much personal stuff (I've seen worse). I have negatives here as much as I do with any of my stocks, both the winners and the losers. It's all down to wanting to know everything. Unless we are the CEO of a company we are not likely to get even a quarter of the info available. The frustration for many kicks in when the info isn't there and this one could develop a phobia in you in that respect. But in the need for more we can often miss the significance of what IS put out. Today is a great example.
Hope you are keeping well mate.
Transformational short-term objectives clearly defined in an official announcement.
COPL is now in a very important and busy period of its life with a significant likelihood of it being a completely different company in SIX months.
It will be putting down eight more production drills into the Barron Flats Shannon Unit.
It will be starting to put down 16 delineation drills into its MAJOR DISCOVERY with an estimated total reservoir volume of 1.5-1.9 billion barrels of Oil in Place ("OIP"), of which 1.2 - 1.6 billion barrels of OIP underlays COPL lands.
They are re-financing to reduce the cost of capital, leveraging their increasing attractiveness as an investable business for lenders.
They could well be significantly increasing their working interest in the production assets. It seems more likely than not that they will secure CUDA from the wording contained in the announcement.
COPL's Objectives for 2022 are written down. I don't need anymore from the Company, just get on with the positive steps that are laid down.
So nearly seven years of waiting to get to this point....... I now am more than happy. The balance of risk/reward was unhealthy, it no longer is.
HFB, I may have it all wrong but a long time ago I came to the conclusion, and posted my views, that the CEO doesn't provide adequate comms, regardless of what it may do to his own short term fortunes, as he doesn't see us as his chosen type of investor. It's all rather grubby getting down with the people at this level. Unfortunately a select few posters of the time reinforced any such view, if indeed he did have such a view, by some of the pretty dire personal comments and abuse they used towards him when things didn't go as planned in the past.
His history though is private jets, big wages, big discoveries and plenty of talk about how 'his' team have always stayed with 'him'. He's that good a boss he's telling us. It's a history built on success, '...this discovery reflects the scale of previous discoveries made over my career...'. (Okay let's not look too deeply at how those successfully discoveries have all panned out, he seems to have skipped that bit). But there have been successful discoveries which are not to be flippantly glossed over by me.
To back up my thoughts on his own sense of being, he didn't list COPL on AIM, he chose the main market. Was that the right place for COPL to list or the right place for him? Whatever, listing on AIM was not for him despite the pittance he has generally sat there with over the eight years since listing.
Why won't he do what Lenigas, Wall's & Bell etc do and promote the company given what we have? Possibly because that promotion would likely, at this stage, only be to investors like us. A few more steps forward and clarification of what we have here and that might change though.
Maybe he identifies himself more as a higher echelon oil supremo and follows the mantra of the big corporation CEO's who have a different investor clientele and who are generally trusted by them to get on with the job, not tell them much but earn them money. And there's the rub, they earn their clients/investors money. Unfortunately up until this point the money in COPL has only been going one way. Art maybe also isn't like those other three because those other three are/were all AIM CEO's. He's a main market CEO.
Now, myself, I just concentrate on the Company not the man and with good reason. Without success of the Company there is no man. He knows that and he also know's he is not sat at the beginning of his career. The Company needs to be a success and for me the Company, at this time and at last, is staring at a real possibility of success ....and from quite close range.
Fingers crossed.
Now's not the time Bob/Bolton. COPL1 ended in March 2021 with the Atomic acquisition and then COPL2 started.
Reset your 'patience clocks' if you can as the journey is going to be a lot shorter to establish the value direction with COPL2 than it ever was with COPL1. Africa versus America.
Forget Art, he is what he is, he does what he does, he doesn't do what he doesn't do, but logic and the different geopolitical situation is telling us that smoke and mirrors should be over, our presently unanswered questions will be answered maybe on just one piece of significant news or maybe over several pieces of news but its coming. The full picture should develop in the next six months but expect the beginning in the next six weeks. Hang on at least that long for that drink guys, it may well be worth it.
Jay wore his passion heavily on his sleeve.
Jiving I know you two were close so please let his family know how we all thought of him on here, he had many friends some he knew personally some not but friends all the same.
Gutted.
Agree with that Yacht, the best option being a CUDA partner with money.
Added benefit of that is that it also frees up our own millions for development and reduces amount of any future equity raise/debt raise which impacts our bottom line.
For those that have subscriptions to the FT;
https://www.ft.com/content/e45ab85c-f211-46d4-ba44-6b30de548ab4
For those that don't:
https://thenyledger.com/markets/oil-industry-pleads-with-wall-street-to-stop-holding-back-investment/
Fair to say that the lack of investment was a known known prior to the invasion in Ukraine and was expected to be a real issue for the price of oil going forward without this war. We (UK) are now reassessing our options of increased gas and oil production.
Thanks again Tilburn. I couldn't agree more re interpretation and that passage is the culprit it seems.
Glad you are prepared to defend my right with such a huge sacrifice Noob, you got anybody in mind? ;-)
LondonTradersty, hopefully didn't come across as too pessimistic was looking more at 'proceeding with a degree of caution', Art has done that to me, it's his fault!
I'm not far behind many on here with the optimism
Thanks Tilburn.
I think the last sentence particularly highlights where I am with this. There is clearly room for loads of optimism but such is the nature of Art's communication key bits are often confidential to us investors too.
The same paragraph you mentioned for the 15th was preceded by, 'These four reservoir sands were damaged in the Discovery Well by significant drilling mud losses during drilling operations as well as cement invasion during casing operations. Due to these issues full evaluation at this time would have required hydraulic fracturing of each sand...'.
Again reading between the lines and looking for what is not said as much as what is, can we wholly rely upon a drill that was conducted 3.5 miles away? I would say that we should be able to given the contiguous nature of the geology but then if that was the case why would we then need a 'full evaluation that could only be done with fracturing of each sand'. Art clearly felt a full evaluation was/is needed to confirm the situation otherwise he wouldn't have felt the need to say the above.
Splitting hairs we also have that word potential rear its head in the follow-up announcement confirming the discovery, '.....we have increased production from the existing wells and accelerated our exploration program which has resulted in today's announced discovery. This highlights the potential for the Wyoming asset to generate long-term production on a scale many multiples greater than our original expectation.'
My post that started all this off was about how 'potential' was a word that we need to and hopefully will get rid of in the near term and as far as the Frontier Sands go I am still of the opinion that we need to see a drill go down much like it has at Dakota to confirm to the market what a monster this actually is.
None taken Noob and it definitely is advice for myself though now after the fact but may also be something for others to consider. I perhaps should have made clear that my post was about the new discovery rather than existing production operations.
Longfell, The comparison is, I feel, spot on. If you don't mind have a look at my post again. It wasn't about ADV it was about using ADV to assign a value to a CPR in establishing the true nature of a reservoir and its given commerciality.
We have a significant new discovery that will need and will get a CPR but my feeling is that the big money here will come from the proven commerciality of that new discovery and that will not come from just CPR. A drill has to go down and successfully get the oil out with a flow test. Ghengis15 in their post mentioned caution until that was done and I for one agree with them.
My angle was, as an investor having gone through the process of investing in a discovery based upon a CPR it may be of interest to others.
Just to clarify what may be a question arising from the above, due to previous drilling of the reservoir and updated state-of-the art seismic ADV's project was also, like here, classed as a discovery.
CPR's we know are compiled by highly skilled professionals but they cannot, as no doubt will be indicated in the report itself, answer all the questions, that will only come for the new discovery when the black stuff is kicked out from the tube!
The biggest negative and anchor on price movement for me is not Art or any communication issues or the like but that word 'potentially'.
Potentially we may be increasing our net bopd through existing production pipeline and potentially the acquisition of CUDA's share.
Our significant new discovery is potentially commercial. The CPR is potentially ongoing.
I also agree with Genghis15 that CPR predictions are not always borne out by drilling. Devilbhoy commented yesterday on a number of stocks that were expected to do well but didn't, one he missed was the recent demise of ADV with a CPR indicating a 90% chance of finding commercial oil. That ten-shot revolver landed on the only chamber with a bullet in it. One of my stocks unfortunately.
So there has to be caution and it makes for a good BB if we have posters prepared to throw open that door, they aren't wrong in fact they are very much right as indeed athe excellent researchers on here who take the time to share their work are not wrong. It's good to read.
Potentially we should be getting some good results soon and by the time those drills go down in August we hopefully be looking at a move from a higher SP. I put in another couple of purchases yesterday and this morning on the back of the potential here and while I have not been here as long as say Yacht I'm not far off, perhaps I won't need much more patience.
He lacks trust and as a CEO is a bad communicator. It doesn't take a genius to identify that the former is largely impacted by the latter.
Regardless of any reason he has for his conscious decision to be poor in this area it really is a shame he cannot bring himself to rectify what would be an easy win and join it to his capabilities as a capable explorer and developer.
Tilburn your post was excellent.
Expect the markets will start to react to the possibility of a way out for both sides even if that reaction is that the markets don't fall any further. Again we'll see but with news expected here the less macro stuff that gets in the way the better, nobody should want a conflict.
I've chucked in for some more shares just now based on the risk door being closed quite a bit by the Ukraine ambassador to the UK. It will be difficult to shut that door now it's been opened (Ukraine suspending NATO application welcomed by Kremlin, despite Ukraine Gov denying they had made/are considering this concession). We'll see but there will be pressure on Ukraine from the West to do that and internal pressure as well.
This has been my first lithium stock and I've kept my head down since first posting and investing a couple of months back. Its performing beautifully I have to say. Without any ramping whatsoever which is not my style the reality is that this can go on growing its MCap because the price of the commodity is growing, the JORC resource is growing and and the Life of Mine is extending. Factor in that the company has a firm schedule for developing the resource to production, has as a result a wealth of news leading up to production, has retained an unencumbered hold on a minimum 50% of the project and is the right metal in the right space at the right time.
Background interest in the project is there, as we know, and Piedmont have also set their stall out as a takeover contender with the way their deal with ALL has been structured. I'm expecting things to get even more interesting over the next 12 months.