Member Info for NoEasy

I picked up on that too ST. That ride has killed one or two professional riders so he should be good for a few more years.

Wyn, nothing better than hearing it from LP. Just after they closed the deal on Buffalo LP explains the 18 month timeline for offshore production from the appraisal well. It's around 27m:30s in.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PlwQKvWeVU

ATB

Carnarvon are also valued at $563m, they've shot up recently. Despite that valuation they see Buffalo-10 as transformational for them and here we are sat at £40m.

That's a fair point and one that has been discussed on here PoC.

In a nutshell they've got a lot of work to fund.

On the JV with us:

'Carnarvon's strategic objective has been to drill the Buffalo-10 well while carefully managing its balance sheet. This transaction enables Carnarvon to progress its portfolio with conviction, which includes the Dorado oil development, the Buffalo oil redevelopment and pursuing a number of high impact exploration wells near the Dorado field.'
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/CARNARVON-PETROLEUM-LIMIT-6496252/news/Carnarvon-Petroleum-Buffalo-Farmout-and-Redevelopment-32030468/

I took it that LP was telling us to buy shares!

1. Almost improbable that the development won't go ahead.
2. They confirmed funding would be available to develop before they closed the Buffalo deal.

With those words the 85% probability of development would seem to risen to at least 90% using the calculations contained within the CPR.

Fully expect that any top ups in this price range will be rewarded with an increased valuation in 7/8 weeks time reflecting the de-risking of Buffalo-10.

The key risks to our valuation are geological, funding and service agreements each with a 5% risk of not going our way. The commodity price risk is very much going our way for present valuation purposes.

That's my two posts for the day out of the way, have a good day all..

Whether we are going to be moving the rig imminently or not we have the Pacific Valour and the Skandi Atlantic now in close proximity to the rig with the Go Sirius making headway and an arrival on scene estimated at around 4pm today. That will be the three ship Croasdalefc posted that had moved the rig to its present location with Jadestone.

Saint's IRR comparison added with the high likelihood of success about sums it up. Compelling.

@Staffy, bang on with that post. It's normal to have significant upside potential running hand in hand with high risks. Here potential is the wrong word. There is more than a 'possibility' this will be successful and the risks of this not going to production are low according to an independent assessment.

I'm going to go for the 'run with your winners' strategy here and staying in after spud. I suspect there will be a pull back but not a large one with the spread possibly further negating the benefit of trading. With only 35 days (Carnarvon think this will be the maximum time taken) between spud and drill result I can also see the SP moving up in expectation during this period as people take advantage of any pull back/stagnant price.

With such a high chance of success I see very little room for negativity, investors could have a clear run at assessing the fundamentals/TA here without battling competing noise .

Cheers Dai.

Thanks for the replies. I learn a bit more on the shenanigans of moving a rig.

Oiler87 how early would. a tow ship be put in proximity to a rig before towing? And given Croasdalefc's post is it likely they will use the same number of vessels to move it across to Buffalo?

ID78, living close to the sea and having seafarers in the pub I can access satellite updates from the guys rather than the land based AIS system, prior to that I gave up on was the rig still there or not.

Still at Skua I believe ID78. Valaris is the dot on the map and its being serviced by supply ship Skandi Atlantic.

It's great for the imagination Jezz.

For those just looking at that marine map for the first time that was blank canvas two days ago apart from a tanker (FPSO?) and the rig itself. It started with the arrival of a tug on Wednesday and more vessels have now arrived. Not myself competent to comment on what is happening so thanks blackelv for sharing your industry knowledge on that and for your first post which I see was very well received.

The PPA has changed the landscape here. Great to see that the conversations and even the arguments are now forward looking.

TB some good logic there. I too wouldn't rule out BDC. My rational also revolves around the mentality of those charged within the government, they have kept a tight administrative hold over TLOU will they want to just let it go? The pond is small and the big fish all swim close together in Botswana. With the government deciding on agreements, BDC deciding on finance, BPC owning the infrastructure, BFoPF being the biggest shareholder a certain synergy would occur and perhaps for a reason.

Where there's money to be made it would not be unusual for control to want to be maintained.

@staffy, to be honest I'm struggling with my strategy on this one. The high chance of success has thrown a bit of a curveball for me.

ST by accident I dropped on the Valour in Darwin port and followed it out a day ago as it reached Skua.

'not the BB BS'.

Careful Wyndrum I got my hair singed for daring to mention there was such a thing;-)

Took me a bit of getting used to that the unrealistic sentiment side of things can perhaps be the biggest driver of a stocks share price (social media, BB's etc) and that fundamentals can be second best for many inexperienced PI's investing in stocks (been there). I think that is where your charting comes in handy.

@Milcait, yes cheers for that. The rig dropped off my map at the same time that a tug/supply ship was moving away from its last location on a heading towards Buffalo. The rig has now reappeared and hasn't moved from Skua! The tug is the one I mentioned which has been servicing Skua and left Darwin a day ago arriving on location at the rig yesterday (UK time). Don't know if it will be contracted to do the tow to Buffalo. I'll keep the occasional eye out anyway just because for some strange reason it's interesting to watch things going on thousands of miles away in real time.

Bit of activity around the rig. Possibly two tugs there (at least one tug the Pacific Valour). Could be the first Skua makeover has completed and now moving to the second makeover or it could be on the way.

'Did say charts were looking good for Monday onwards on Friday last...'

To be fair you've called it with the charting for the last two months Bladey.